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طراحی الگوریتم سنجش پیشرفت پروژهها با هدف کاهش مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی و اجتماعی ناشی از تأخیرات | ||
| مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 3، شماره 4، دی 1395، صفحه 301-314 اصل مقاله (491.2 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی کاربردی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhsci.2016.62341 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمود گلابچی1؛ کتایون تقی زاده آذری2؛ احسان سروش نیا* 3 | ||
| 1استاد دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت پروژه و ساخت دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| صنعت ساختمان از ارکان اصلی توسعة پایدار و اقتصاد مولد هر کشور است و به‌شکل مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، افراد، سازمان‌ها و نهادهای بسیاری را درگیر خود می‌کند. تسهیلات و زیرساخت‌های اجتماعی، معیاری اساسی در شکل‌گیری اجتماعات پایدارند. صنعت ساخت‌وساز [construction Industry] بخشی اساسی و حیاتی از نظام اقتصادی است که تأثیر زیادی بر محیط زیست دارد. فرایندهای احداث، بهره‌برداری و تخریب ساختمان‌ها، از مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیر نقش انسان بر محیط زیست به‌صورت مستقیم (از طریق مصرف مصالح و انرژی و آلودگی و هدر رفت ناشی از آن) و غیرمستقیم (از طریق فشار بر زیرساخت‌های ناکارامد و اشتغال) است. مخاطراتی همچون افزایش و هدررفت مصرف منابع طبیعی در خلال پروژه‌های تأخیریافته، مرافعات حقوقی، کاهش انگیزش و بازدهی عوامل انسانی درگیر در پروژه، کاهش انگیزش سرمایه‌گذاری و مخاطرات اقتصادی ناشی از آن و مشکلات اقتصادی-اجتماعی منتج از آن، از عواملی‌اند که محققان را به طراحی الگوهای مؤثرتر پایش پروژهها وادار می‌کنند. در طی فرایند کنترل پروژه، حتی با بهره‌گیری از بهترین و متداول‌ترین نرم‌افزارهای موجود در این عرصه، به‌واسطۀ انگاره‌هایی ساده و پیش‌پاافتاده که تنها مبتنی بر قضاوت‌های فردی کاربرند، پیشرفت پروژه سنجیده می‌شود؛ قضاوت‌هایی که ممکن است آلوده به ذهنیات فردی، شرایط روحی و روانی، داوری نادرست و ... باشد. شالودۀ فرایند سنجش در متدولوژی پیشنهادی پژوهش حاضر، قضیه‌ای در علم فیزیک با عنوان «اصل انتقال حرارت» است. به عقیدة نگارنده، پیشرفت زمانی هر فعالیت در پروژه، به مانند انتقال یکنواخت انرژی حرارتی در یک جسم رسانای جامد و پیشرفت مالی آن به‌مثابۀ انتقال انرژی حرارتی به‌گونۀ غیریکنواخت در یک نیمه‌رساناست. با این فرض، محک‌ها و معیارهای سنجش پیشرفت، بر پایۀ این اصل طراحی شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پایش پروژه؛ طراحی الگوریتم؛ قضیة انتقال حرارت فوریه؛ کنترل سایبرنتیک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Design of project progress measure algorithm aimed at reducing the environmental and social hazards resulting from delay | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mahmood Golabchi1؛ Katayoon Taghizadeh Azari2؛ Ehsan Sorooshnia3 | ||
| 1School of Architecture, University of Tehran | ||
| 2School of Architecture, University of Tehran | ||
| 3pHD Candidate, School of Architecture, University of Tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Construction industry is a key element of sustainable development and the productive economy of any country is directly or indirectly in the form of individuals, organizations and institutions involved with the many. Facilities and social infrastructure, are basic criterion in shaping sustainable communities. Construction Industry comprises essential of the economic system have a significant impact on the environment. Construction processes, operation and demolition of buildings is one of the most important factors in the effects of humans on the environment, either directly (via consumption of materials and energy, emissions and losses caused by it) and indirectly (through pressure on infrastructure, inefficient and employment) is. Risks such as increased consumption and waste of natural resources through projects delayed, lawsuits, reduced motivation and efficiency of the human factors involved in the project, reducing the investors to invest and the risks resulting economic and economic-social results from it, are all of the factors that have forced researchers to design more effective patterns for project monitoring. During the process of project control, even using the best and most popular software available in this field, project progress are measured through the simple and trivial ideas which are based on judgments of individual users; judgments that may be infected with the subjective and mental conditions of user and incorrect judgment. Assessment process in proposed methodology of the study is established on the basis of the theorem in physics as "the principle of heat transfer". In my opinion, any time progress of the project is similar to uniform transfer of thermal energy in a conductive solid and financial progress is like non-uniform transfer of thermal energy in a semiconductor. Assuming, benchmarks the criteria for measuring progress, was designed based on this principle. Introduction It is clear that in project procedure, after decision-making and design, efficient design can provide satisfactory results regarding purposes and hypotheses of the study. However, can modern techniques, methods, accurate design, and prediction of various factors lead to the ultimate goal? Of course the answer is negative, because the mental and physical efforts can lead to efficient results when it is possible to show everything in practice. The accuracy and efficiency of planning should be indicated in practice; otherwise, all of them will lead to failure. Therefore, in addition to accurate planning and design, we should attempt to find a way to measure the results and find a solution to deal with problems and deviations. No system can work and achieve its highest capacity without control. All of us are familiar with chaos and delay resulted from lack of control in traffic system. Uncontrolled water or electricity network systems can cause problems or decrease efficiency. If a building system is efficiently designed but progresses without any control, it may lead to delays or replacement. This study aims to utilize theoretical models and methods in practice to achieve new methodology in project progress measurement. Then, important points in this regard are taken into considerations and finally, theoretical foundations of methodology design are presented. Materials and Method In this study, using project control principles, it will be attempted to create suitable flowchart and algorithm (based on Fourier Heat Transfer theorem) to determine priorities for measurement, conditions, and criteria for deviations, measuring deviations, filtering minor deviations, and relationship between allocated resources and after case studies, the software package will be prepared. Conclusion The necessities to have effective control over project consist of accurate criteria for measurement and by popular software, it is easy to understand activity progress measurement is simple. Therefore, in most of software packages, the user is asked to insert a number between 0 and 100 and the software considers inaccurate number as the basis for future calculations. Since for each activity, time and cost resources are consumed, the progress level should be measured with respect to resources and time consumptions. Therefore, we need to design a fundamental method to calculate activity progress with high accuracy. In this study, first, foundations and the necessity to control project were proposed and new algorithms were presented to measure the progress of projects. In this algorithm, some stages are predicted that include determination of measurement relationships, limitations of deviations, discovering significant deviations, and identifying problems. In order to define the relationships based on simulation of project environment that is known as heat conduction theorem, some formulas are suggested to measure activity progress in terms of time and cost and it is expected to investigate all factors in activity procedure. In these formulas, activity time progress procedure is considered as heat conduction in steady state and capital injection and financial progress are similar to unsteady state heat conduction. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Cybernetic Control, Project Monitoring, Fourier's theorem of heat transfer, Algorithm Design | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 610 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 442 |
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