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تهیۀ نقشۀ حساسیت به وقوع زمین لغزش با استفاده از مدلهای وزن شواهد (WofE)، نسبت فراوانی (FR) و دمپستر– شیفر (DSH) (مطالعۀ موردی: محدودۀ ساری-کیاسر) | ||
| نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 15، دوره 70، شماره 3، آذر 1396، صفحه 735-750 اصل مقاله (1.25 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrwm.2017.203370.989 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهوش غلامی* 1؛ کریم سلیمانی2؛ اسماعیل نکویی قاچکانلو3 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابعطبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابعطبیعی ساری | ||
| 2استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابعطبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابعطبیعی ساری | ||
| 3کارشناس ارشد هیدروژئولوژی، دانشکدۀ علوم پایه، دانشگاه شیراز | ||
| چکیده | ||
| زمین لغزش به عنوان یکی از مخاطرات طبیعی مهم هر ساله موجب خسارات مالی، جانی و تخریب منابعطبیعی میشود. هدف این تحقیق مقایسۀ سه مدل وزن شواهد، نسبت فراوانی و دمپستر-شیفر در حوضۀ آبخیز ساری-کیاسر است. در ابتدا، دادههای 105 زمین لغزش رخ داده در منطقه بر اساس عکسهای هوایی 1:25000 و مطالعات میدانی جمعآوری گردیده و این فهرست به دو قسمت 75 درصد برای پهنهبندی و 25 درصد برای اعتبارسنجی تقسیم شد. سپس، 17 پارامتر مؤثر در زمین لغزش شامل فاکتورهای زمین شناسی، ژئومورفولوژیکی، هیدرولوژیکی و انسانزاد فراهم گردید. مهم ترین فاکتورها در رخداد زمین لغزش در منطقۀ بارش، شیب و پوشش گیاهی هستند. نتایج اعتبارسنجی به صورت درصد مساحت زیر منحنی تجمعی (AUC)نشان میدهد که نرخ موفقیت مدلهای وزن شواهد و نسبت فراوانی و دمپستر-شیفر به ترتیب 05/92 و05/92 و 31/91 درصد و نرخ پیشبینی به ترتیب 72/92 و 73/92 و 44/85 درصد است. نتایج نشان میدهد که از نظر دقت مدل بهکار رفته براساس نرخ موفقیت سه مدل در گروه عالی (9/ - 1) قرار میگیرند. همچنین نرخ موفقیت بر اساس نرخ پیشبینی مدلهای وزن شواهد و نسبت فراوانی در گروه عالی (9/ - 1) و مدل دمپستر-شیفر در گروه خوب (8/0-9/0) قرار میگیرند. نتایج بهدست آمده بیانگر این است که مدلهای وزن شواهد و نسبت فراوانی مدلهای کارامدتری نسبت به مدل دمپستر-شیفر در منطقه هستند | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پهنهبندی خطر زمین لغزش؛ روش وزن شواهد؛ نسبت فراوانی؛ دمپستر-شیفر؛ محدودۀ ساری-کیاسر | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Landslide susceptibility mapping by use of Weight of Evidence (WofE) and Frequency Ratio (FR) and Dempster-Shafer (DSH) models: A case study of Sari-Kiasar region, Northern Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| mahvash gholami1؛ karim soleymani2؛ esmaeil nekoee3 | ||
| 1u | ||
| 2u | ||
| 3u | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Landslide is one of the major natural hazards caused financial losses, in lives and destruction of natural resources each year. The aim of this study was comparisons of three models, namely WofE, FR and DSH to the determination of the landslide prone areas in Sari-Kiasar watershed. In the first, 105 landslides occurred in the study area were collected based on aerial photographs in the 1:25,000 scale and field studies divided into two group haphazardly to generate training 75% and testing 25% dataset. Then, 17 landslide conditioning factors including geological, geomorphological, hydrological and anthropogenic were prepared to spatial relationship with landslide occurrence in the study area. The most important factors in the occurrence of landslides in the study area were rainfall followed by slope and vegetation. The validation results as a percentage of the cumulative area under the curve (AUC) showed that the success rate of WofE, FR and DSH models are 92.05, 92.05 and 91.31 percent respectively and the prediction rate are 92.72, 92.73 and 85.44 percent respectively. The results show that in terms of the accuracy of the model used to base on success rate, three models are placed in excellent group (0.9 to 1), also in terms of the accuracy of the model used to base on prediction rate, WofE, FR models are placed in excellent group (0.9 to 1) and DSH is placed in good group (0.8 to 0.9). The results showed that the WofE and FR model have a higher prediction accuracy than of DSH model. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Landslide hazard zonation, Weight of evidence, frequency ratio, Dempster-Shafer, sari-Kiasar region | ||
| مراجع | ||
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