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پیش بینی وضعیت منابع آب تحت اثر تغییرات اقلیم به کمک مدل ANFIS و سناریوهای گردش عمومی جوّ (مطالعۀ موردی:حوضۀ زیارت شهر گرگان) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 15، دوره 5، شماره 1، فروردین 1397، صفحه 173-187 اصل مقاله (1.1 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2017.241377.720 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سید حامد شکیب1؛ سعید فرزین* 2 | ||
| 1مربی، گروه مهندسی عمران دانشگاه بزرگمهر قائنات | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب و سازه های هیدرولیکی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه سمنان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| وضعیت آتی منابع آب متأثر از تغییرات اقلیم در هر منطقه است و شبیهسازی بارش-رواناب برای دورههای آینده سهم مهمی در مدیریت منابع آب خواهد داشت. تغییر اقلیم میتواند توسط مدل گردش عمومی جوّ و سناریوهای مختلف اقلیمی شبیهسازی شود. در این تحقیق، اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر رواناب، بارش، دما و منابع آب منطقۀ زیارت استان گلستان بررسی شد. از مدل گردش عمومی جوّ HadCM3 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی A1B، A2 و B1 برای سه دورۀ آتی 2011 تا 2030، 2046 تا 2065 و 2080 تا 2099 استفاده شد. برای ریزمقیاس‌نمایی خروجیهای مدل HadCM3، مدل ANFIS به‌کار برده شد. نتایج آزمون t در سطح اعتماد 95 درصد نشان داد هیچ اختلاف معناداری بین نتایج مشاهدهای و شبیهسازیشده وجود ندارد. مقادیر پیشبینیشده بیان‌کنندۀ افزایش دما به مقدار 32/0 تا 77/1 درجۀ سانتیگراد است و کاهش میزان بارندگی نیز برای دورههای آتی به میزان 60/1 تا 46/31 میلیمتر خواهد بود. در ادامه، دادههای به‌دست‌آمده به همراه نقشۀ شمارۀ منحنی (CN) و خصوصیات فیزیوگرافی زیرحوضه، به‌دست‌آمده از نرم‌افزار ArcGIS، به عنوان ورودی به مدل HEC-HMS وارد شد تا دبی در دورههای اقلیمی آینده شبیهسازی شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد در هر سه سناریوی افقهای 2020، 2055 و 2090، دبی پیک و حجم سیلاب کاهش یافته است و در هر سه افق یادشده، بیشترین کاهش مربوط به سناریوی A2 است. درصد کاهش دبی پیک و حجم تخلیه برای هر سناریو به‌ترتیب 72/1 و 83/1، 06/3 و 07/3، 43/4 و 48/4 برای دورههای آتی به‌دست آمد. نتایج اجرای مدل، بیان می‌کند که آبگیری مناسبی در پشت مخازن صورت نمی‌گیرد. در نهایت، برای حل این مسئله راهکارهایی ارائه شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بارش-رواناب؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ حوضۀ زیارت؛ Hadcm3؛ ANFIS؛ HEC-HMS | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Prediction of water resource status affected by climate change by ANFIS model and General Circulation Model (case study: Ziarat basin of Gorgan) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Seyed Hamed Shakib1؛ Saeed Farzin2 | ||
| 1Msc, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat, Qaen, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In this research, the effect of climate change on rainfall, runoff, temperature and water resource for Ziarat basin of Golestan province, was assessed. General ccirculation model, HadCM3, was used under three scenarios as A1B, A2 and B1 for 3 future time duration as 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099, respectively. In order to down scaling of HadCM3 output, ANFIS model was used. The predicted results showed increasing temperature as 0.32-1.77oC and decreasing precipitation as 1.6-31.46 mm for future durations. Then, the mentioned results, curve number map and physiographic parameters, basin and waterway slope, gained from Arc-GIS, as importing data to calibrated HEC-HMS model was made in order to simulate the discharge of climate future durations. Results presented the runoff volume and peak of discharge have decreased in all three scenarios for horizon 2020, 2055 and 2090 and for all mentioned horizons, the most of decreasing was related to A2 scenario. Percentage decrease in peak and discharge volume was obtained 1.72 and 1.83, 3.06 and 3.07, 4.43 and 4.48 for mentioned periods, respectively. Consequently, based on extracting information from models, no enough storage would happen in dams. Finally, some solution for this problem was presented. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| climate change, Rainfall-runoff, Hadcm3, ANFIS, HEC-HMS | ||
| مراجع | ||
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