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Kalman filter and Neural Network methods for detecting irregular variations of TEC around the time of powerful Mexico (Mw=8.2) earthquake of September 08, 2017 | ||
| فیزیک زمین و فضا | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 44، شماره 4، دی 1397، صفحه 87-97 اصل مقاله (331.47 K) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jesphys.2018.258251.1007007 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| Mehdi Akhoondzadeh Hanzaei* | ||
| Assistant Professor, Department of Remote Sensing, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In 98 km SW of Tres Picos in Mexico (15.022°N, 93.899°W, 47.40 km depth) a powerful earthquake of Mw=8.2 took place at 04:49:19 UTC (LT=UTC-05:00) on September 8, 2017. In this study, using three standard, classical and intelligent methods including median, Kalman filter, and Neural Network, respectively, the GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements of three months were surveyed to detect the potential unusual variations around the time and location of Mexico earthquake. Every three implemented methods indicated a striking irregular variation of TEC at the earthquake time. However, on the earthquake day, the geomagnetic indices Dst and Ap have exceeded the allowed ranges and even reached maximum values during the studied time period. Besides, the solar index of F10.7 showed high activity around the earthquake day. Therefore, it is difficult to acknowledge the seismicity nature of the detected TEC unusual variations on earthquake day. Therefore, in this case, we encounter a mixed and complex behavior of ionosphere. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Earthquake Precursor؛ Ionosphere؛ Geomagnetic activity؛ GPS؛ Mexico earthquake؛ TEC | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Kalman filter and Neural Network methods for detecting irregular variations of TEC around the time of powerful Mexico (Mw=8.2) earthquake of September 08, 2017 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehdi Akhoondzadeh Hanzaei | ||
| Assistant Professor, Department of Remote Sensing, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In 98 km SW of Tres Picos in Mexico (15.022°N, 93.899°W, 47.40 km depth) a powerful earthquake of Mw=8.2 took place at 04:49:19 UTC (LT=UTC-05:00) on September 8, 2017. In this study, using three standard, classical and intelligent methods including median, Kalman filter, and Neural Network, respectively, the GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements of three months were surveyed to detect the potential unusual variations around the time and location of Mexico earthquake. Every three implemented methods indicated a striking irregular variation of TEC at the earthquake time. However, on the earthquake day, the geomagnetic indices Dst and Ap have exceeded the allowed ranges and even reached maximum values during the studied time period. Besides, the solar index of F10.7 showed high activity around the earthquake day. Therefore, it is difficult to acknowledge the seismicity nature of the detected TEC unusual variations on earthquake day. Therefore, in this case, we encounter a mixed and complex behavior of ionosphere. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Earthquake Precursor, Ionosphere, Geomagnetic activity, GPS, Mexico earthquake, TEC | ||
| مراجع | ||
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Akhoondzadeh, M., 2011, Comparative study of the earthquake precursors obtained from satellite data. PhD thesis, University of Tehran, Surveying and Geomatics Engineering Department, Remote Sensing Division. Akhoondzadeh, M., 2012, Anomalous TEC variations associated with the powerful Tohoku earthquake of 11 March 2011. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1453-1462, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-1453-2012. Akhoondzadeh, M., 2013, A MLP neural network as an investigator of TEC time series to detect seismo-ionospheric anomalies. Advances in Space Research, 51, 2048-2057. Akhoondzadeh, M., De Santis, A., Marchetti, D., Piscini, A. and Cianchini, G., 2018, Multi precursors analysis associated with the powerful Ecuador (MW=7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016 using Swarm satellites data in conjunction with other multi-platform satellite and ground data. Advances in Space Research, 61, 248-263. Freund, F., 2009, Stress-activated positive hole charge carriers in rocks and the generation of pre-earthquake signals. In Electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes, Ed. by M. Hayakawa, Transworld Research Network, Trivandrum, 41-96. Hayakawa, M. and Molchanov, O. A., 2002, Seismo- Electromagnetics: Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling. Terra Scientific Publishing Co. Tokyo, 477. Haykin, S., 2001, Kalman filtering and Neural networks, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada, 1-284. Klimenko, M. V., Klimenko, V. V., Zakharenkova, I. E. and Pulinets, S. A., 2012, Variations of equatorial electrojet as possible seismo-ionospheric precursor at the occurrence of TEC anomalies before strong earthquake, Advances in Space Research, 49 (3), 509-517. Liu, J. Y., Chuo, Y. J., Shan, S. J., Tsai, Y. B., Pulinets, S. A. and Yu, S. B., 2004, Pre-earthquake-ionospheric anomalies registered by continuous GPS TEC, Ann. Geophys., 22, 1585-1593. Mannucci, A. J., Wilson, B. D., Yuan, D. N., Ho, C. H., Lindqwister, U. J. and Runge, T. F., 1998, A global mapping technique for GPS-derived ionospheric total electron content measurements, Radio Sci., 33, 565-582, doi: 10.1029/97RS02707. Mayaud, P. N., 1980, Derivation, Meaning and use of geomagnetic indices, Geophy, 22, American Geo. Union, Washington, D. C. Namgaladze, A. A., Zolotov, O. V. and Prokhorov, B. E., 2013, Numerical Simulation of the Variations in the Total Electron Content of the Ionosphere Observed before the Haiti Earthquake of January 12, 2010, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 53 (4), 553-560. Pao, H. T, 2007, Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks, Energy Conversion and Management, 48, 907–912. Paoli, C., Voyant, C., Muselli, M. and Nivet, M. L., 2010, Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks, Solar Energy, 84, 2146–2160. Parrot, M., 1995, Use of satellites to detect seismo-electromagnetic effects, Main phenomenological features of ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes, Advances in Space Research, 15 (11), 1337-1347. Pulinets, S. A. and Boyarchuk, K. A., 2004, Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes, Springer, Berlin. Pulinets S. A., 2009, Physical mechanism of the vertical electric field generation over active tectonic faults, Adv. Space Res., 44, 767-773. Pulinets S. and Ouzounov D., 2011, Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model - an unified concept for earthquake precursors validation, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 41, 371-382. Qiang, Z. J., Xu, X. D. and Dian, C. G., 1991, Thermal infrared irregular variation precursor of impending earthquakes, Chinese Sciences Bulletin, 36, 319-323. Sorokin, V. M. and Pokhotelov, O.A., 2014, Model for the VLF/LF radio signal anomalies formation associated with earthquakes, Advances in Space Research, 54 (12), 2532-2539. Zhang, G. P., 2001, An investigation of neural networks for linear time-series forecasting, Computers & Operations Research, 28, 1183-1202. | ||
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