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Gholamian, Seyed Akbar. (1397). An Assess of Operational Project Performance by Integrating Earned Value Management and Learning Curve Theory. , 52(2), 233-247. doi: 10.22059/jieng.2018.235974.1391
Seyed Akbar Gholamian. "An Assess of Operational Project Performance by Integrating Earned Value Management and Learning Curve Theory". , 52, 2, 1397, 233-247. doi: 10.22059/jieng.2018.235974.1391
Gholamian, Seyed Akbar. (1397). 'An Assess of Operational Project Performance by Integrating Earned Value Management and Learning Curve Theory', , 52(2), pp. 233-247. doi: 10.22059/jieng.2018.235974.1391
Gholamian, Seyed Akbar. An Assess of Operational Project Performance by Integrating Earned Value Management and Learning Curve Theory. , 1397; 52(2): 233-247. doi: 10.22059/jieng.2018.235974.1391

An Assess of Operational Project Performance by Integrating Earned Value Management and Learning Curve Theory

Advances in Industrial Engineering
مقاله 9، دوره 52، شماره 2، مهر 2018، صفحه 233-247    اصل مقاله (1.06 M)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jieng.2018.235974.1391
نویسنده
Seyed Akbar Gholamian*
Department of Industrial Engineering, Payam Noor University of Babol, Mazandaran, Iran
چکیده
This study adopts an integrated performance measurement and prediction model based on a combination of earned value management approach and the learning curve theory under risk condition. The research has two main parts: the first part concerns the project performance measurement and the second part focuses on forecasting performance indicators in terms of time and cost of the project subject to the errors and risks. The contributions of the present study are threefold. First, this study extends to the traditional performance measurement model, which focuses only on forecasting time at completion, by extending the performance measurement domain to analyse both time and cost. Secondly, the learning curve models are explicitly used as a basis to assess the nonlinear effect of learning on the performance. Novel risk performance metrics are proposed and adopted for knowledge-based projects. Thirdly, compared with classic deterministic and static performance measurement models, the proposed performance analysis employs the Kalman-Filter approach to predict the final time and cost performance accurately by taking into account the probabilistic risk factors and the errors in the performance forecasting procedures. The validity of the integrated performance measurement model is justified based on a case study. The computational results demonstrate that the developed performance measurement framework affords more accurate forecasts for the future performance than the traditional deterministic earned value methodology. The integrated performance measurement model developed in this study affords probabilistic prediction bounds and generates less errors than those achieved in classic EVM.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Cost Forecasting؛ Earned Value Management؛ Learning Curve Theory؛ Project Performance Measurement
عنوان مقاله [English]
ارزیابی عملکرد عملیاتی پروژه با تلفیق رویکرد مدیریت ارزش کسب‌شده و تئوری منحنی یادگیری
نویسندگان [English]
سید اکبر غلامیان
عضو هیئت‌علمی دانشگاه پیام‌نور، گروه مهندسی صنایع، تهران، ایران
چکیده [English]
عملکرد یک پروژه در قالب زمان و هزینه قابل‌ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، توسعة مدلی برای ارزیابی عملکرد پروژه در قالب ابعاد زمان و هزینه و مبتنی بر ریسک است. به‌عنوان یکی از مدل‌های شناخته‌شده در حوزة ارزیابی عملکرد زمان و هزینه، از رویکرد مدیریت ارزش کسب‌شده استفاده می‌شود. تلفیق این رویکرد با مقولة منحنی‌های یادگیری و مدل‌سازی تأثیر آن در عملکرد و نیز توجه به تأثیر ریسک بر آن با بهره‌گیری از روش کالمن-فیلتر، از نوآوری‌های پژوهش حاضر است. تلفیق روش مدیریت ارزش کسب‌شده، منحنی‌های یادگیری و روش پیش‌بینی کالمن-فیلتر ابزاری کارآمد در پیگیری روند پیشرفت، آنالیز ریسک و پیش‌بینی اهداف عملکردی است. به‌منظور اعتبارسنجی پژوهش، دقت روش‌های مدیریت ارزش کسب‌شده، زمان‌بندی کسب‌شده و روش کالمن-فیلتر در مقایسه با روش پیشنهادی در مطالعه‌ای موردی بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد روش پیش‌بینی تلفیقی برای ارزیابی عملکرد پروژه‌های دانش‌محور، کمترین متوسط درصد خطای پیش‌بینی عملکرد در پروژة مورد مطالعه است، درنتیجه می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که مدل پیشنهادی نتایج مطمئن‌تری در مقایسه با روش‌های رایج ارزیابی عملکرد ارائه می‌کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
ارزیابی عملکرد پروژه, پیش‌بینی هزینه, تئوری منحنی یادگیری, مدیریت ارزش کسب‌شده
مراجع
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  2. شکری، مهنوش؛ جهانگشای رضائی، مصطفی و ایزدبخش، حمیدرضا ()، «ارائة مدل جامع ارزیابی عملکرد در محیط رقابتی با رویکرد ترکیبی تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها، کارت امتیازی متوازن و تئوری بازی‌ها (مطالعة موردی: شرکت‌های سیمان)»، نشریة مهندسی صنایع، 1394، شمارة 49، صص 45-54.
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