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ارزیابی ریسک و عدم قطعیت خسارات مالی ناشی از سیلابهای رودخانه‌ای در مناطق شهری (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوضه آبریز کن) | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 50، شماره 9، بهمن 1398، صفحه 2239-2259 اصل مقاله (1.4 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2019.283115.668228 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| کیمیا امیرمرادی1؛ علیرضا شکوهی لنگرودی* 2؛ اصغر عزیزیان3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری ، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران | ||
| 2استاد ، گروه مهندسی آب ، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین، ایران | ||
| 3استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این مقاله به ارزیابی خسارت مستقیم ناشی از سیلاب بر ساختمانها و داراییها و محتویات داخل ساختمان در مناطق شهری پرداخته شده است. ارزیابی ریسک و مدیریت سیلابهای شهری نیازمند وجود یک الگوریتم مشخص برای برآورد خسارتهای اقتصادی ناشی از سیلاب میباشد. در این تحقیق از مشخصههای هیدرولیکی عمق و سرعت جریان برای تعیین منطقه در معرض تخریب در هنگام بروز سیل و سپس عمق جریان برای تخمین میزان خسارت اقتصادی ناشی از سیلاب با دوره بازگشتهای 2، 5، 10، 25، 50، 100، 200 و 500 ساله برای ساختمانهای بجای مانده در منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده گردید. در الگوریتم توسعه یافته از منحنیهای عمق- خسارت 5 مدل مختلف استفاده به عمل آمد و میزان خسارت حاصله از سیلابهای طرح و در نهایت خسارت سالانه مورد انتظار وارد بر ساختمان و محتویات داخل آن (EAD) محاسبه گردید. با استفاده از این تخمینها، مناطق بحرانی برای مدیریت ریسک سیلاب در منطقه مطالعاتی شناسایی شدند. نتایج نشان داد که استفاده از منحنیهای عمق- خسارت مدل Arrighi et al. (2013) به نتایجی منطقیتر رسیده و در شرایط نبود داده مناسب میتوان از آن برای مطالعات مربوط به مدیریت ریسک و بیمه سیل استفاده نمود. در نهایت به بررسی عدم قطعیت منحنی عمق- خسارت با استفاده از روش تخمین واریانس مرتبه اول (FOVE) جهت در نظر گرفتن باند اطمینان برای میزان خسارت برآورد شده، پرداخته شد. با استفاده از روش ارائه شده در این مقاله میتوان یک تخمین سریع با تقریب قابل قبول از ریسک سیلاب را بخصوص در مناطقی که از لحاظ تامین دادههای تفصیلی مربوط به داراییهای منقول و غیرمنقول با مشکل مواجه میباشند، بدست آورد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| خسارت اقتصادی سیلاب؛ سیلاب شهری؛ منحنی عمق- خسارت؛ مدیریت ریسک؛ عدم قطعیت | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Evaluating Risk of Economic Loss due to River Flood in Urban areas (Study Area: Kan Watershed) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Kimia Amirmoradi1؛ Alireza Shokoohi2؛ asghar azizian3 | ||
| 1PhD. Student, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 3Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In this paper, direct loss to structures and their properties due to rivers’ floods in urban areas was investigated. Risk evaluation and flood management require an algorithm for evaluating economic loss due to flood. In this research, hydraulic properties such as depth and flow velocity were used to detect the destroyable areas during the flood event. Then the flow depth was used to estimate the economic loss due to floods with different return periods; 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 500-year. The economic loss due to floods was calculated using the depth–loss functions of five different models. Furthermore, the costs of expected annual damage (EAD) for structures in the study area were determined for plan floods, of which the critical areas at the region were distinguished. The results showed that using depth-loss function of Arrighi et al. (2013) is more logic in the study area and it can be employed for risk management and flood insurance studies when the proper data are not exist. Finally, the depth-loss functions’ uncertainty were investigated using the First Order Variance Estimation (FOVE) method and the estimated loss confidence interval was determined. The procedure introduced in this paper provides a tool for rapid and acceptable approximation for risk assessment in urban flood-prone areas, especially where detailed information about structures and their pertinent properties cannot be provided. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Economic loss of flood, Urban flood, Depth-loss function, risk management, uncertainty | ||
| مراجع | ||
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