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ارزیابی رابطه استخراج منابع آب زیرزمینی و فقر روستایی در ایران | ||
| فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 54، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 128، شهریور 1398، صفحه 525-550 اصل مقاله (838.11 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jte.2019.72767 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سید پرویز جلیلی کامجو* 1؛ یونس نادمی2 | ||
| 1استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی ، بروجرد، ایران، | ||
| 2استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| فقر دارای ابعاد مختلفی است و متغیرهای گوناگونی بر انواع فقر مؤثر است. اما در دهه اخیر نگاه کل‌گرایانه به فقر به سمت نگاه جزیی و هدفمند تغییر یافته است. همچنین با توجه به شدت تخریب و تخلیه محیط‌زیست، در مراحل گذار کشورها به توسعه‌یافتگی، تحلیل و ارزیابی تأثیر متغیرهای محیط زیستی مانند آب بر فقر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش ارزیابی تأثیر استخراج منابع آب زیرزمینی بر فقر مطلق در مناطق روستایی ایران در دوره 1393-1364 با استفاده از تصریح مارکوف سوئیچینگ و تصریح دو رژیمی فقر مطلق میباشد. نتایج برآورد مدل نشان داده که فقر روستایی در اقتصاد ایران دارای دو رژیم فقر پایین و بالا است که رژیم فقر پایین ماندگاری بیشتری نسبت به رژیم فقر بالا دارد. همچنین استخراج منابع زیرزمینی آب در رژیم فقر روستایی بالا، تأثیری غیرخطی و آستانه‌ای بر شاخص فقر مطلق روستایی دارد. به عبارت دیگر تا زمانی که این شاخص کمتر از 46/74 باشد، افزایش آن توانسته است موجب کاهش فقر مطلق روستایی شود، اما پس از افزایش بی‌رویه استخراج منابع آب زیرزمینی و عبور از حد آستانه فوق، افزایش استخراج منابع زیرزمینی آب موجب افزایش فقر مطلق روستایی می‌شود. این نتایج نشان می‌دهد که منابع آب زیرزمینی باید مبتنی بر یک مسیر بهینه استخراج بلندمدت به منظور نیل به توسعه پایدار، مورد بهره‌برداری قرار گیرد. به این ترتیب پیشنهاد می‌شود که به منظور جلوگیری از تله فقر محیط‌زیستی در مناطق روستایی، کیفیت حکمرانی آب و نحوه دسترسی به منابع آب در قالب یک سیستم مدیریت جامع منابع آب در حوضه‌های تحت تنش فقر مطلق، اجرا شود. طبقهبندی JEL: L95, Q25, N57, P28, I32 | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| منابع آب زیرزمینی؛ فقر مطلق؛ تصریح مارکوف سوئیچینگ | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Evaluation of the Relationship between Underground Water Resources Extraction and Rural Poverty in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| seyyed parviz jalili kamju1؛ Younes Nademi2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor in Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University | ||
| 2Assistant Professor in Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Poverty has different dimensions and multiple variables have effect on types of poverty. But in recent decades holistic look has changed to detailed and targeted poverty. Also, due to the severity of degradation and evacuation of the environment, in the transitional stages of countries to development, evaluation of environmental variables impacts such as water on poverty have been considered. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the effect of groundwater resources extraction on absolute poverty in Iran's rural areas during 1985-2015, using the Markov switching specification and the determination of two absolute poverty schemes. The results showed that rural poverty in Iran's economy has two low and high poverty regimes. Low poverty regime tends to be more sustainable than high poverty regime. Also, the extraction of underground water resources in the high rural poverty regime has a nonlinear and threshold effect on the absolute rural poverty index. In other words, as long as the index is less than 74.46, its increase has been able to reduce rural poverty. But after increasing the extraction of groundwater resources and crossing the above threshold, increasing the extraction of underground water resources will increase the rural absolute poverty. These results indicate that groundwater resources should be exploited based on an optimal long-term extraction pathway in order to achieve sustainable development. In this way, it is suggested that the quality of water governance and access to water resources be implemented in the form of a comprehensive water resources management system in absolute poverty stress areas, in order to prevent environmental poverty in rural areas. JEL Classification: L95, Q25, N57, P28, I32. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Groundwater Resources, Absolute Poverty, Markov Switching | ||
| مراجع | ||
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