Trend Analysis and Spatio-Temporal Zoning of Urmia Lake Basin Precipitation and Selection of Indicator Stations by Multivariate Statistical Methods | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| Article 2, Volume 50, Issue 7, December 2019, Pages 1581-1593 PDF (1.21 M) | ||
| Document Type: Research Paper | ||
| DOI: 10.22059/ijswr.2019.268428.668046 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Behrooz Sobhani* 1; Mohammad Isazadeh2; Yaghob Dinpashoh3 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran | ||
| 2Ph.D. Student, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Lake Urmia, as one of the most important lakes in the country, has an inappropriate environmental condition due to excessive consumption of water and climate change. The study of climate change and rainfall distribution in this area can improve water management in this basin. In this study, the information of 65 weather stations in the period of 1997-2016 were used for precipitation zoning of Urmia lake basin. For this purpose, the data of each month were standardized and arranged in a matrix with dimensions of (n*m) in which n is the number of stations (65) and m is the number of months (12). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on data matrix and the main components were determined according to their Eigen values greater than one. Then the principal component score (PCS) values were calculated for the selected components. These values were used as inputs in the Ward cluster analysis method. Then, the Procrustes method was used to determine the index stations. The results showed that the first two main components incorporated more than 87% of the all data variances. Based on the selected components, six distinct precipitation regions were identified throughout the basin. Moreover, it was found that four stations located in different points of the Urmia lake basin namely Mehmandar, Sarab, Babaroud and Santeh can be considered as indicator stations. These stations incorporated more than 84% of the all data variances of basin stations. The Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the rainfall in the autumn season has a significant increase trend, while annual precipitation has only a significant increase trend in one of the clusters. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Cluster Analysis; Mann-Kendall; Multivariate Methods; Principal component analysis; Urmia Lake | ||
| References | ||
|
Ahmadi, F., Radmanesh, F. and Mirabbasi Najaf Abadi, R. (2015). Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Northern Half of Iran during the Recent Half of the Century. Water and Soil Science Journal, 25(3), 211-225. (In Farsi) Arvin, A.A., Mofidi Khaje, A.M. and Mazini, F. (2012). Selecting Place and Time Patterns in Golestan Province Rainfall by Clustering Analysis. Geographical planning of space quarterly journal, 2(6), 117-132. (In Farsi) Bärring, L. (1988). Reginalization of daily rainfall in Kenya by means of common factor analysis. Journal of climatology, 8(4), 371-389. Chen, L. H. and Hong, Y. T. (2012). Regional Taiwan rainfall frequency analysis using principal component analysis, self-organizing maps and L-moments. Hydrology Research, 43(3), 275-285. Dinpashoh, Y. (2003). Analysis of meteorological droughts using pattern analysis. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Tabriz, Tabriz. (In Farsi) Dinpashoh, Y., Fakheri-Fard, A., Moghaddam, M., Jahanbakhsh, S. and Mirnia, M. (2004). Selection of variables for the purpose of regionalization of Iran's precipitation climate using multivariate methods. Journal of Hydrology, 297(1): 109-123. Fallahi, B., Fakheri Fard, A., Dinpajooh, Y. and Darbandi, S. (2012). Regionalization of Northwest Iran Based on Daily Rainfalls and Rain’s Time Intervals Using PCA, Ward and K-mean Methods. Journal of Water and Soil, 26(4), 979-989. (In Farsi) Fathian, F. and Morid, S., (2012). Trend Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Variables in Urmia Lake Basin by use of Non-Parametric Methods. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 3(43), 259-269. (In Farsi) Fathian, F., Dehghan, Z., Bazrkar, M. H. and Eslamian, S. (2016). Trends in hydrological and climatic variables affected by four variations of the Mann-Kendall approach in Urmia Lake basin. Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(5), 892-904. Fazel, N., Berndtsson, R., Uvo, C. B., Kløve, B. and Madani, K. (2015). Regionalization and Spatial Analysis of Precipitation of the Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 1101-1107. García‐Marín, A. P., Ayuso‐Muñoz, J. L., Taguas‐Ruiz, E. V. and Estevez, J. (2011). Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall in the province of Malaga (southern Spain) using the principal component analysis. Water and Environment Journal, 25(4), 522-531. Ghaderpour, M., Abghari, H. and Tabari, H. (2017). Assessment of regional precipitation trend in the Lake Urmia basin. Physical Geography Research, 48(4), 627-643. (In Farsi) Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S. (2014). Spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation in Serbia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 117(3-4), 419-431. Hamed, K.H. and Rao, A.R. (1998). A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1-4), 182-196. Isazadeh, M., Kaki, M. and Fakherifard, A. (2016). Analysis of Rainfall Trend and Evaluation of Weather Droughts of Iran Using the Herbst Method. Water and Soil Science, 26(3), 127-143. (In Farsi) Jackson, I. J. (1972). The spatial correlation of fluctuations in rainfall over Tanzania: a preliminary analysis. Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie, Serie B, 20(2), 167-178. Jahanbakhsh Asl, S., Abtahi, V., Ghorbani, M.A., Tadayyoni, M. and Valayi, A. (2015). Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in Tabriz County Using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. Journal of geographic space. 15(50), 59-81. (In Farsi) Johnson, G.L. and Hanson, C.L. (1995). Topographic and atmospheric influences on precipitation variability over a mountainous watershed. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 34(1), 68-87. Jolliffe, I.T. (1986). Principal Component Analysis. Springer-Verlag. Kalkstein, L.S., Tan, G. and Skindlov, J.A. (1987). An evaluation of three clustering procedures for use in synoptic climatological classification. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 26(6), 717-730. Khalili, K., Nazeri Tahrudi, M. and Khanmohammadi, N. (2014). Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Recent two Decades over Iran. Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Sciences, 4(1), 5-10. Khorshiddoust, A.M. and Shirzad, A.A. (2014). The Study of Precipitation in North of Iran Using Cluster and Discriminative Function Analyses. Journal of geography and planning, 18(49), 110-118. (In Farsi) Krzanowski, W.J. (1987). Selection of variables to preserve multivariate data structure, using principal components. Applied Statistics, 36(1), 22-33. Kulkarni, A., Kripalani, R. H. and Singh, S. V. (1992). Classification of summer monsoon rainfall patterns over India. International Journal of Climatology, 12(3), 269-280. Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J. and Thurner, K. (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374(1-2), 171-183. Mahsafar, H., Maknoon, R. and Saghafian, B. (2011). The Impact of Climate Change on Urmia Lake Water Level. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research, 7(1), 47-58. (In Farsi) Masoudian, A., Darand, M. and Karsaz, S. (2011). Rainfall zoning of west and northwest of Iran by cluster analysis. Journal of Physical Geography, 4(11), 35-44. (In Farsi) Mirabassi, R. and Dinpashoh, Y. (2013). Trend Analysis of Precipitation of NW of Iran Over the Past Half of the Century. Journal of Irrigation Science and Engineering, 35(4), 59-73. (In Farsi) Nadi, M. and Khalili, A. (2013). Classification of Iran’s precipitation climate using factor-cluster analysis method. Journal of Irrigation Science and Engineering, 44(3), 235-242. (In Farsi) Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Khalili, K. and Ahmadi, F. (2016). Spatial and Regional Analysis of Precipitation Trend over Iran in the Last Half of Century. Journal of Water and Soil, 30(2), 643-654. (In Farsi) Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Ahmadi, F. and Khalili, K. (2017). Evaluation the Trend and Trend Chang Point of Urmia Lake Basin Precipitation. Journal of Water and Soil, 31(2), 644-659. (In Farsi) Nam, W., Shin, H., Jung, Y., Joo, K. and Heo, J.H. (2015). Delineation of the climatic rainfall regions of South Korea based on a multivariate analysis and regional rainfall frequency analyses. International Journal of Climatology, 35(5), 777-793. Nam, W. S., Kim, T. S., Shin, J. Y. and Heo, J. H. (2008). Regional rainfall frequency analysis by multivariate techniques. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 41(5), 517-525. Othman, M., Ash’aari, Z.H. and Mohamad, N.D. (2015). Long-term daily rainfall pattern recognition: Application of principal component analysis. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 30, 127-132. Pansera, W. A., Gomes, B. M., Boas, A. V. and Mello, E. L. (2013). Clustering rainfall stations aiming regional frequency analysis. Journal of Food, Agriculture & Environment, 11(2), 877-885. Satyanarayana, P. and Srinivas, V. V. (2011). Regionalization of precipitation in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables–A fuzzy clustering approach. Journal of Hydrology, 405(3-4), 462-473. Satyanarayana, P. and Srinivas, V. V. (2008). Regional frequency analysis of precipitation using large‐scale atmospheric variables. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113(D24). Venkatesh, B. and Jose, M. K. (2007). Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western Ghats region of Karnataka. Journal of Earth System Science, 116(4), 321-329. Wallis, J. R., Schaefer, M. G., Barker, B. L. and Taylor, G. H. (2007). Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping for 24-hour and 2-hour durations for Washington State. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11(1), 415-442. Zhang, J. and Hall, M. J. (2004). Regional flood frequency analysis for the Gan-Ming River basin in China. Journal of hydrology, 296(1-4), 98-117.
| ||
|
Statistics Article View: 735 PDF Download: 448 |
||