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شاکری بستان آباد, رضا, صالحی کمرودی, محسن. (1399). عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رهیافت میانگین‌گیری مدل بیزین. , 51(3), 451-467. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2020.289249.668812
رضا شاکری بستان آباد; محسن صالحی کمرودی. "عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رهیافت میانگین‌گیری مدل بیزین". , 51, 3, 1399, 451-467. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2020.289249.668812
شاکری بستان آباد, رضا, صالحی کمرودی, محسن. (1399). 'عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رهیافت میانگین‌گیری مدل بیزین', , 51(3), pp. 451-467. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2020.289249.668812
شاکری بستان آباد, رضا, صالحی کمرودی, محسن. عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رهیافت میانگین‌گیری مدل بیزین. , 1399; 51(3): 451-467. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2020.289249.668812

عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رهیافت میانگین‌گیری مدل بیزین

تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
مقاله 5، دوره 51، شماره 3، مهر 1399، صفحه 451-467    اصل مقاله (760.38 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2020.289249.668812
نویسندگان
رضا شاکری بستان آباد* 1؛ محسن صالحی کمرودی2
1دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
2دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
طیف وسیع عوامل موثر بر رشد در مبانی نظری و مطالعات تجربی و ضعف روش­های متعارف موجب شده است که مطالعات تنها بر یک جنبه از الگوهای رشد نظری و تجربی تمرکز کنند. این مساله، نااطمینانی در خصوص تصریح یا ترکیب متغیرها در الگو و ضرایب برآورد شده را به­همراه دارد. این نااطمینانی می­تواند منجر به تورش و عدم کارایی در برآورد ضرایب شود که نتیجه آن، پیش­بینی­های نامناسب و استنتاج آماری اشتباه است. از این­رو، در مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از روش میانگین­گیری بیزین، تأثیر مهم‌ترین عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران در دوره زمانی 96-1357 بررسی شده است. با استفاده از این رهیافت، تمام زیرالگوهای ممکن با استفاده از متغیرهای مطالعه برآورد می­شود و سپس، ضریب هر متغیر در تمامی الگوها میانگین­گیری می­شود. وزن­ها در این میانگین­گیری، بر اساس قاعده بیز یا احتمال پسین هر الگو تعیین می­شود. بدین منظور، در این مطالعه 2048 الگوی متفاوت برآورد شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که سرمایه­گذاری، توسعه مالی و درآمدهای نفتی به ترتیب با احتمال تاثیر 81/0، 67/0 و 42/0، مهم­ترین متغیرهای موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی هستند و همچنین، نرخ رشد واردات محصولات کشاورزی با احتمال تاثیر 90/0 بیشترین تاثیر منفی را بر رشد ارزش افزوده این بخش دارد. از این­رو، سرمایه­گذاری و تامین بودجه تولیدکنندگان، توجه به تولیدات داخلی و تنظیم سیاست­های تجاری در زمینه واردات باید در اولویت سیاست­­گزاری و برنامه­ریزی این بخش قرار بگیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
مدل رشد اقتصادی؛ رشد بخش کشاورزی؛ قاعده بیز؛ میانگین گیری بیزین؛ الگوریتم های انتخاب گام به گام
عنوان مقاله [English]
Factors Affecting the Growth of Iran's Agricultural Sector: Applying the Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
نویسندگان [English]
Reza Shakeri Bostan abad1؛ Mohsen Salehi Komroudi2
1Ph.D. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2Graduate PhD, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]
The wide range of factors influencing growth in theoretical foundations and empirical studies and the weakness of conventional methods have led studies to focus on only one aspect of theoretical and empirical growth patterns. This gives rise to uncertainty about specifying or combining variables in the model and estimated coefficients. This uncertainty can lead to bias and inefficiency in estimating the coefficients resulting in inaccurate predictions and inaccurate statistical inference. Therefore, in this study, using the Bayesian averaging method, the influence of the most important factors affecting the growth of Iranian agricultural sector during 1978-2017 was investigated. Using this approach, all possible sub-models are estimated using study variables and then the coefficient of each variable is averaged across the models. The weights in this averaging are determined by the Bayesian rule or the posterior probability of each pattern. In this study, 2048 different models were estimated. The results showed that investment, financial development and oil revenues with the probability of impact of 0.81, 0.67 and 0.42, respectively, are the most important variables affecting the growth of agricultural sector and also the growth rate of agricultural imports with a probability of impact of 0.90 had the most negative effect on the growth of value added. Therefore, investing and financing producers, paying attention to domestic production and setting trade policies on imports should be a top priority in policy making and planning.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Economic Growth Model, Agricultural Sector Growth, Bayes Rule, Bayesian Model Averaging, Stepwise Selection Algorithms
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