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فرمانهای نگهداشت تصادفی وابسته به زمان برای بهرهبرداری مخزن: مطالعه موردی مخزن سد بوکان | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 52، شماره 7، مهر 1400، صفحه 1971-1985 اصل مقاله (1.29 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2021.322227.668941 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| شهرام زبردست1؛ مسعود پارسی نژاد* 2 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 2گروه آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بهرهبرداری مخزن سد برای تأمین کل نیاز گام زمانی جاری به دلیل احتمال مواجهه با کمبود آب شدید در آینده منطقی نیست و استفاده از فرمانهای نگهداشت میتواند تأمین آب در آینده را بیمه کند. در بهرهبرداری بلند- مدت مخزن سد برای تأمین نیاز آبیاری، عدمقطعیت جریان ورودی به مخزن و نیاز آبیاری اثر قابل توجهی در نتایج رهاسازی از مخزن خواهد داشت. همچنین تغییرات حساسیت محصول به تنش آبی در دورههای مختلف رشد باعث تغییر در شیب تابع عملکرد محصول میشود، که در توابع عملکرد فصلی دیده نشده و مسئله را پیچیدهتر میکند. در این مطالعه مزایای استفاده از مدل تصادفی و توابع عملکرد وابسته به گام زمانی نسبت به مدل قطعی و تابع عملکرد فصلی در بهرهبرداری از مخزن سد بوکان با استفاده از فرمانهای نگهداشت نشان داده شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که بهرهبرداری مخزن با فرمانهای نگهداشت نسبت به مدل بهرهبرداری موجود، 8/46 درصد سود اقتصادی را افزایش میدهد. همچنین توابع عملکرد وابسته به گام زمانی 19 درصد نتایج را نسبت به تابع عملکرد فصلی بهبود میبخشد. نتایج مقایسه مدل تصادفی با مدل قطعی بهرهبرداری مخزن نشان میدهد که وارد کردن جداگانه عدمقطعیت جریان ورودی به مخزن و نیاز آبیاری و ورود همزمان هر دو متغیر در محاسبات به ترتیبب 73/0، 95/4 و 99/12 درصد سود اقتصادی را افزایش خواهد داد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بهره برداری مخزن؛ فرمانهای نگهداشت؛ عدم قطعیت جریان ورودی؛ نیاز آبیاری؛ استوکستیک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Time-dependent Stochastic Hedging Rules to Reservoir Operation: A Case Study of the Bukan Dam Reservoir | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Shahram Zebardast1؛ Masoud Parsinejad2 | ||
| 1, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 2Irrigation Engineering Department, Campus of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In operation of dam reservoir, due to the possibility of severe water shortages in the future, supplying total demand of current step is not rational, and the use of hedging rules can provide insurance for water supply in the future. In the reservoir long-term operation to supply the irrigation water demand, uncertainty of reservoir inflow and uncertainty of irrigation water demand have a significant effect on release. Crop water stress sensitivity variation at different growth stages varies the crop production function slope, which is not seen in seasonal production functions. In this study, a stochastic planning model with time-dependent production functions and a deterministic planning model with seasonal production function, in operation of the Buchan dam reservoir by using hedging rules are compared. The results show the reservoir operation by hedging rules increases economic benefit by 46.8% compared to the existing operation model. The time-dependent production function can improve the results by 19% over seasonal production functions. Also, the results show using stochastic model with the inflow uncertainty, irrigation water demand uncertainty and both, inflow uncertainty and irrigation water demand uncertainty simultaneously, the economic benefit increase by 0.73, 4.95 and 12.99%, respectively. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Reservoir operation, Hedging rules, Inflow uncertainty, irrigation water demand, Stochastic | ||
| مراجع | ||
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