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تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی ایران: پیش‌بینی پتانسیل عملکرد و تولید گیاهان زراعی استراتژیک کشور با استفاده از مدل SSM-iCrop2 | ||
| به زراعی کشاورزی | ||
| مقاله 13، دوره 23، شماره 4، دی 1400، صفحه 882-871 اصل مقاله (1.53 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jci.2021.320843.2531 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علیرضا نه بندانی* 1؛ مجتبی سعادتی2؛ مهدی گودرزی3؛ افشین سلطانی4 | ||
| 1دانش آموخته دکتری، گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد، گروه زیست‌شناسی، دانشگاه امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3دانش آموخته کارشناسی، کارشناس امنیت غذایی، سازمان پدافند غیرعامل کشور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 4استاد، گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| خطر کاهش امنیت غذایی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی یکی از چالش‌های عمده قرن 21 است. این مطالعه با هدف پیش‌بینی پتانسیل عملکرد و تولید گیاهان زراعی استراتژیک کشور تحت تأثیر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیمی انجام گرفت. در این تحقیق پتانسیل عملکرد و تولید 17 گیاه زراعی (گندم، جو، برنج، لوبیا، کلزا، نخود، ذرت دانه‌ای، پنبه، عدس، سیب زمینی، کنجد، سویا، چغندرقند، نیشکر، آفتابگردان، یونجه و ذرت علوفه‌ای) در سطح کل کشور در شرایط فعلی (دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1393) و دو سناریوی اقلیمی آینده خوش‌بینانه (افزایش 5/1 درجه سانتی گراد دما همراه با افزایش 14 درصد بارش دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1393) و بدبینانه (افزایش 5/1 درجه سانتی گراد دما همراه با کاهش 14 درصد بارش دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1393) با استفاده از مدل گیاهی SSM-iCrop2 برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد سناریوی بدبینانه باعث کاهش پتانسیل تولید گندم و حبوبات (حدود 1 درصد) و سناریوی خوش‌بینانه باعث افزایش پتانسیل تولید این محصولات (به ترتیب 4 و 2 درصد) می‌شود. هر دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم باعث کاهش پتانسیل تولید برنج، سیب‌زمینی، دانه‌های روغنی و گیاهان قندی (به ترتیب 4، 10، 5 و 7 درصد) می‌شود. همچنین، پتانسیل تولید گیاهان علوفه‌ای در هر دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم بدبینانه و خوش‌بینانه افزایش می‌یابد. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تغییرات عملکرد گیاهان زراعی در اقلیم آینده کاهش طول دوره رشد، کارایی استفاده از تشعشع و کارایی تعرق خواهند بود. به طور کلی، گیاهان گندم، جو، سیب زمینی و نیشکر بیشتر از سایر گیاهان تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی قرار گرفتند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بارش؛ دما؛ شرایط آبی؛ شرایط دیم؛ کارایی استفاده از تشعشع؛ کارایی تعرق | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Impact of Climate Change on Iran's Food Security: Predicting the Potential Yield and Production of Strategic Crops based on SSM-iCrop2 model | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Alireza Nehbandani1؛ Mojtaba Saadati2؛ Mahdi Goodarzi3؛ Afshin Soltani4 | ||
| 1Former Ph.D. Student, Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor, Department of Biology, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Former B.Sc. Student, Food security expert of Passive Defense Organization, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 4Professor, Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Plant Production, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Food security reduction due to climate change is one of the most important challenges in the 21st century. This study was carried out to predict the potential yield and production of the country’s strategic crops examining various climate change scenarios. In this study, the potential yield & production of 17 crops (Wheat, barley, rice, common bean, rapeseed, chickpea, grain maize, cotton, lentil, potato, sesame, soybean, sugar beet, sugarcane, sunflower, alfalfa and Silage maize) were estimated under current conditions (period 2005-2014) & two climatic scenarios (optimistic:1.5 ° C increase in temperature with 14% increase in precipitation period 2005-2014; pessimistic: 1.5 ° C increase in temperature & 14% decrease in precipitation period 2005-2014) applying SSM-iCrop2 model. The results showed that the pessimistic scenario reduced the potential production of wheat & legumes (about 1%) & the optimistic scenario increased the potential production of these crops (4 & 2%, respectively). Both climate change scenarios reduced the potential production of rice, potato, oilseeds & sugar crops (4, 10, 5 & 7%, respectively). Furthermore, the potential production of Silage maize increased in both climate change scenarios (2% & 3%, respectively). The results showed that the major factors which alter crop yield could be the growing season duration, radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. In general, wheat, barley, potato, and sugarcane were more affected by climate change than other crops. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Irrigated conditions, Precipitation, radiation efficiency, Rainfed conditions, Temperature, Transpiration efficiency | ||
| مراجع | ||
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