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تحلیل اثر طول دوره آماری بر احتمال وقوع خشکسالی با استفاده از رویکرد توابع مفصل (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه سینوپتیک اراک) | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 52، شماره 9، آذر 1400، صفحه 2427-2440 اصل مقاله (1.38 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2021.324692.668986 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| کیمیا نادری1؛ مه نوش مقدسی* 2؛ اشکان شکری3؛ فرشاد احمدی4 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه اراک، اراک ، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران دانشیار، گروه منابع آب پژوهکشده آب، دانشگاه اراک، | ||
| 3عضو سازمان هواشناسی استرالیا، ملبورن ، استرالیا | ||
| 4گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در سالهای اخیر با توسعه روشهای آماری و کاربرد ریاضیات پیشرفته ساختار وابستگی موجود در پدیدههای حدی نظیر خشکسالی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در مطالعه حاضر تحلیل چندمتغیره خشکسالیهای ایستگاه سینوپتیک اراک با استفاده از شاخص SPEI و توابع مفصل و اثر طول دوره آماری بر احتمال وقوع خشکسالی بررسی گردید. بدین منظور دادههای بارش و دمای مشاهداتی و شبکهای پایگاه اقلیمی جهانی (CRU) برای ایستگاه منتخب جمعآوری و دو دوره آماری 100 و 37 ساله برای این تحقیق انتخاب شده است. سپس خصوصیات مدت و شدت خشکسالی در مقیاسهای زمانی مختلف (1، 3، 6، 9 و 12ماهه) استخراج و ساختار وابستگی موجود در بین مشخصهها با استفاده از ضرایب همبستگی اسپیرمن و تاو کندال بررسی و مشخص گردید که بجز در مقیاس یک ماهه، در سایر مقیاسهای زمانی همبستگی معناداری بین مشخصهها وجود دارد. پس از تعیین بهترین توزیع حاشیهای، پنج تابع مفصل برای ایجاد توزیع دو متغیره شدت و مدت خشکسالی برازش داده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در ایستگاه اراک برای هر دو دوره آماری 100 و 37 ساله بهترتیب مفصل کلایتون و گامبل- هوگارد به دلیل دارا بودن بیشترین مقدار NS و کمترین مقدار NRMSE بهترین عملکرد را داشته و برای ایجاد توزیعهای دومتغیره شدت و مدت خشکسالی انتخاب شدند. همچنین نتایج حاکی از آن بود که دوره آماری 37 ساله برای برررسی خشکسالیها با شرط "یا" مناسب بوده اما در حالت "و" و تشدید خشکسالیها، دوره بازگشت توأم نزدیک به 45 سال میرسد. بنابراین پیشنهاد میشود که از دوره آماری 100 ساله برای تحلیل خشکسالیهای منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پایگاه اقلیمی جهانی؛ توزیع حاشیهای؛ ساختار وابستگی؛ مشخصه‌های خشکسالی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of the Effect of Statistical Period Length on Occurrence Probability of Drought Using the Copula Functions Approach (Case Study: Arak Synoptic Station) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Kimia Nadari1؛ Mahnoosh Moghaddasi2؛ Ashkan Shokri3؛ Farshad Ahmadi4 | ||
| 1Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, Arak, Iran | ||
| 2Associate professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, Arak, Iran. 3Associate professor, Department of Water Resources, Water Institute, Arak University, Arak, Iran. | ||
| 3Member of Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, Melbourne Australia | ||
| 4Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In recent years, with the development of statistical methods and the application of advanced mathematics, the structure of dependence on extreme phenomena such as drought has been considered. In the present study, multivariate analysis of droughts using SPEI and copula functions and the effect of statistical period length on the occurrence probability of drought was investigated in Arak synoptic station. For this purpose, precipitation and observational temperature data and global climate database (CRU) networks have been collected for the selected station, and two statistical periods of 100 and 37 years have been selected for this research. Then, the characteristics of duration and severity of drought were extracted and at different time scales (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12), and its dependency structure was calculated by Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau correlation coefficients that it shows there is a significant correlation between severity and duration of drought except on one-month scales. After determining the best fitted marginal distributions on the drought characteristics, the fitness of five different copulas for developing the bivariate distribution of severity and duration of drought was examined. The results showed that at Arak station for both statistical periods of 100 and 37 years, Clayton and Gumble-Huggard copula functions, respectively, due to having the highest value NS (0.9, 0.9) and the lowest values of NRMSE (12.9, 7.9). The results also showed that the 37-year statistical period was suitable for the study of droughts with the condition "or" but in the case of "and" and the intensification of droughts, the joint return period reaches nearly 45 years. Therefore, it is recommended that a statistical period of 100 years be used to analyze the droughts in the study area. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate Research Unit, Marginal distribution, Dependency structure drought characteristics | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 413 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 200 |
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