The effective demographic model of sections quad Iran's sports based on Strategic Foresight

Farokhshahinia, Reza

doi:10.22059/sshr.2021.86244

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	The effective demographic model of sections quad Iran's sports based on Strategic Foresight
Sport Sciences and Health Research
مقاله 7، دوره 13، شماره 2، مهر 2021، صفحه 197-207 اصل مقاله (464.05 K)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/sshr.2021.86244
نویسنده
reza farokhshahinia^*
Faculty of Educational Sciences and Psychology, Department of Sports Management, Payame Noor University,Tehran, Iran
چکیده
Background: The traditional approaches to strategic planning in the face of uncertainty of the environment have no inflexibility, and there is no appropriate response to it. Strategic Foresight systems are welcomed by creating a strategy in a highly competitive environment. Aim: The purpose of the study was to explain the effective demographic model of sections quad Iran's sports based on Strategic Foresight to end in 2036. Materials and Methods: The present research is in terms of applied purpose, qualitative nature and implementation path in foresight methods, environmental scanning and survey. The statistical population were faculty members of sports management with associate degrees and higher who were selected by combining sampling. Results: The experts approve the research model with GOF= 0.509. Also, development of academic disciplines in sport for all, land-use planning system in professional sport, per capita family income in championship sport, land-use planning system in educational sport as demographic key drivers were identified. Conclusion: The research model can be effective as a guide in anticipation of the future of sections quad Iran's sports and provided the basis for envisioning the future state and effective decision-making.
کلیدواژه‌ها
anticipation؛ demographic؛ key drivers؛ sport management؛ Strategic Foresight

مراجع
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The effective demographic model of sections quad Iran's sports based on Strategic Foresight

[1] Rohrbeck R, Bade M. “Environmental scanning, futures research, strategic foresight and organizational future orientation: A review, integration, and future research directions”. InISPIM Annual Conference. 2012 Jun 9.

[2] Wuest DA, Bucher CA, Fisette J. Foundations of Physical Education, Exercise Science, and Sport. Boston: McGraw-Hill. 2006.

[3] Farokhshahinia R, Javad S, Shirvani Naghani M, Honari H, Kargar G. “Explaining the effective Environmental Scaninig Pattern of Iran's sports Strategic Foresigh and drawing critical uncertainties”. Iranian Journal of Management Sciences. 2021; 16(61).

[4] Godet M, Durance P. Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development. Paris: UNESCO. 2011.

[5] Mull RF, Bayless KG, Jamieson LM. Recreational Sport Management. Human Kinetics, 4th edition, 2005.

[6] Norman R. “Envisioning a future state: Using Strategic Foresight to imagine tennis in 2025”. North American Society for Sport Management Conference (NASSM) Ottawa, 392-393. 2015 https://doi.org/10.1002/for.848.

[7] Rohrbeck R. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Springer Science & Business Media. 2011.

[8] Shirvani M, Eivazi MR, Ghasemi H. “The interdisciplinary concept of strategic foresight in the trans-disciplinary of futures studies: What is it and why does it matter?” Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities. 2017; 9(3): 1-24. doi: 10.22631/isih.2017.258.

[9] Cuhls K. From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of forecasting. 2003 Mar;22(2‐3):93-111. doi: 10.1002/for.848.

[11] Foroutan Y. “Social change and demographic response in Iran (1956–2006)”. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. 2014; 41(2): 219-29. doi: 10.1080/13530194.2014.884317.

[12] Rothblum ED, Balsam KF, Mickey RM. “Brothers and sisters of lesbians, gay men, and bisexuals as a demographic comparison group: An innovative research methodology to examine social change”. The Journal of Applied Behavioral Science. 2004; 40(3): 283-301. doi: 10.1177/0021886304266877.

[13] Paris C. “Demographic aspects of social change: implications for strategic housing policy”. Urban Studies. 1995; 32(10): 1623-43. doi: 10.1080/00420989550012276.

[14] Koe Hwee Nga J, Shamuganathan G. “The influence of personality traits and demographic factors on social entrepreneurship start up intentions”. Journal of Business Ethics. 2010; 95(2): 259-82. doi: 10.1007/s10551-009-0358-8.

[16] Van Slingerland KJ, Durand-Bush N, Kenttä G. “Collaboratively designing the Canadian Centre for Mental Health and Sport (CCMHS) using group concept mapping”. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology. 2021; 33(1): 98-122. doi: 10.1080/10413200.2019.1704938.

[17] Vito G, Sorrentini A, Di Palma D, Raiola V, Tabouras M. “Success factors on which to invest in mega sport events: Lessons from the past and insights into the future”. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences. 2016; 4(4): 190-8. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20160404.14

[18] Popper R. “How are foresight methods selected?” Foresight. 2008; 10(6): 62-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586.

[19] Kuosa T. The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy. Oxfordshire: Routledge. 2012.

[20] Kock N, Hadaya P. “Minimum sample size estimation in PLS‐SEM: The inverse square root and gamma‐exponential methods”. Information Systems Journal. 2018; 28(1): 227-61. doi: 10.1111/isj.12154.

[21] Fornell C, Larcker DF. “Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error”. Journal of Marketing Research. 1981; 18(1): 39-50. doi: 10.2307/3151312.

[22] Tenenhaus M, Amato S, Esposito Vinzi V. “A global goodness-of-fit index for PLS structural equation modelling”. The XLII SIS Scientific Meeting. 2004 Jun 9; 1(2): 739-742.

[23] Mohsenin S, Esfidani MR. Structural equations based on partial least squares approach with the help of Smart-PLS software. 1st ed. Tehran: Mehraban Book Publishing; 2014.

[24] Samari E. “Strategic policies and foundations of academic development plans in the selected universities across the world”. Higher Education Letter. 2017; 10(39): 7-32.

[25] Skille EÅ. “Sport for all in Scandinavia: sport policy and participation in Norway, Sweden and Denmark”. International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics. 2011; 3(3): 327-39. doi: 10.1080/19406940.2011.596153.

[26] Skille EÅ, Fahlén J, Stenling C, Strittmatter AM. “(Lack of) government policy for indigenous (Sámi) sport: A chain of legitimating and de-legitimating acts”. International Review for the Sociology of Sport. 2021: doi: 1012690220988650.

[27] Kroshus E, Qu P, Chrisman S, Herring S, Rivara F. “Socioeconomic status and parent perceptions about the costs and benefits of youth sport”. Plos One. 2021; 16(11): e0258885. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258885.

[28] Barkhordari S, Abdi M, Solgi S. “Analysis of relationship between per capita income growth, household debt and income inequality (Case study: Iranian provinces)”. Economics Research. 2018; 18(69): 107-32. doi: 10.22054/joer.2018.8865.

[29] Akbari Y, Imani Jajarmi H, Rostamalizadeh V. “Analysis of land use barriers in Iran”. Science and Technology Policy Letters. 2016; 6(3): 5-13. doi: 20.1001.1.24767220.1395.06.3.1.8.

[30] Barton H. “Land use planning and health and well-being”. Land Use Policy. 2009;26: S115-23. doi: %3A%2010.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.008.