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تحلیل عدم قطعیت‌های آینده وضعیت تاب‌آوری اجتماعی جوامع روستایی با تحلیل عملکرد واقعیت‌های موجود در چارچوب برنامه‌ریزی سناریو(مطالعه موردی روستای فهلیان. شهرستان ممسنی) | ||
| پژوهشهای روستائی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 28 خرداد 1401 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrur.2022.340735.1729 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
علی شمس الدینی 1؛ محمد رضا امیری فهلیانی  2
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| 1دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی- دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی | ||
| 2نورآباد ممسنی ـ فهلیان ـ خیابان اصلی ـ نرسیده به دبیرستان بعثت ـ جنب سوپرمارکت امیری | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در نظر گرفتن عوامل دخیل در تاب‌آوری اجتماعی این جوامع در پاسخ به بیماری COVID-19 و بیماری‌های واگیردار در آینده بسیار مهم است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش‌پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و در بازه زمانی مهر 1400 صورت گرفته است. مطالعه حاضر با عملیاتی‌کردن چارچوب تاب‌آوری، یک رویکرد جامع را برای بهینه‌سازی برنامه‌های مهار و سیاست‌های کاهش با استفاده از شاخص‌های موثر در تاب‌آوری اجتماعی روستاها با نمونه موردی روستای فهلیان با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی در مورد شیوع بیماری‌های همه‌گیر ارائه می‌دهد. تعداد 35 متغیر کلیدی با روش‌دلفی شناسایی شد. سپس این متغیرها براساس میزان اهمیت و عدم‌قطعیت با استفاده از نرم‌افزار(Micmac) اولویت‌بندی و حیاتی‌ترین عوامل مشخص و برای نوشتن سناریوهای محتمل از نرم‌افزار سناریونگاری ویزارد استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش 31 نفر از کارشناسان خبره در حوزه مسائل روستایی و برخی از اساتید دانشگاهی متخصص در حوزه مورد مطالعه می-باشند. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که متغیرهای رژیم غذایی، درآمد، ضعف امکانات بهداشتی، سبک‌زندگی، توانایی جبران خسارت، تورم و فقر، در روستای فهلیان به عنوان مهم‌ترین متغیرهای تاب‌آوری اجتماعی در مقابله با شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار و کرونا شناسایی شدند و سپس بوسیله نرم‌افزار سناریونگاری ویزارد 7 سناریو اصلی تاب-آوری اجتماعی تعریف شد که سنایو یک داری وضعیت مطلوب و امیدوار کننده بوده است. مهم‌ترین پیشنهاد برای تاب‌آوری این روستا در مواجهه با بیماری‌های واگیردار کمک مسئولین برای جذب امکانات بهداشتی و درمانی و همچنین جذب پزشکان متخصص برای رسیدگی به مسائل درمانی روستای فهلیان و شهرستان نورآباد ممسنی می‌باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| عدم‌قطعیت؛ تاب‌آوری اجتماعی؛ بیماری واگیردار؛ سناریونگاری؛ روستای فهلیان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of future uncertainties of social resilience status of rural communities by analyzing the performance of existing realities in the framework of scenario planning (Case study of Fahlian village. Mamasani city) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Shamsoddini1؛ mohammad reza amiri fahlyiani2 | ||
| 1Islamic Azad University - PhD in Geography and Rural Planning | ||
| 2نورآباد ممسنی ـ فهلیان ـ خیابان اصلی ـ نرسیده به دبیرستان بعثت ـ جنب سوپرمارکت امیری | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction The dictionary translates to resilience, the ability to recover or recover quickly, change, buoyancy and elasticity, and resilience, the ability of an individual or organization to recover quickly after a misfortune or unpleasant event. Resilience reflects the ability of communities to use available resources to prepare, respond, tolerate and recover from severe disasters such as earthquakes, floods, economic shocks and outbreaks. Explaining resilience against threats is in fact recognizing how the social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities of societies affect the increase of resilience and identifying different dimensions of resilience. In recent decades, many infectious diseases have occurred on an increasing scale - namely the Ebola virus, acute SARS acute respiratory syndrome, avian and renal influenza, Mers Middle East respiratory syndrome, and the emerging disease of Covid 19. The outbreak of these diseases has led to widespread socio-economic consequences, including the loss of human lives and disruption of trade and travel. Poor rural communities lack access to essential public services. Lack of specialized health clinics, long geographical distances and as a result, lack of access to health facilities and government offices to perform tasks such as local administration, welfare, treatment, trade, etc. and high-level educational needs and so on. Moreover, the lack of information in all areas is one of the major issues that makes the rural deprivation trap stronger and stronger. Fahlian village is one of the functions of Noorabad Mamasani city to the center of Noorabad city. This village is located in the center of Fahlian district, 15 km from Noorabad city. This village was the center of Mamasani city until 1341 and from 1341 onwards the center was moved from Fahlian to Noorabad. Assess the village and identify the key factors and drivers in the future resilience of Fahlian village and scenario building with a future research approach. Therefore, it will be necessary to identify the determining and key drivers of social resilience in this village when facing epidemic and contagious diseases. Finally, the main question of the present study is what are the key factors influencing the formation of social resilience when facing infectious diseases and COVID-19 in Fahlian village in terms of futurism? Methodology This research is a library and field in terms of the type of applied-theoretical research and in terms of the nature of descriptive-analytical research, and the method of data collection. Also, in terms of nature, it is based on new methods of futurism, research, analysis and exploration, which has been done using quantitative and qualitative models. In exploratory designs, a measurement tool is usually developed through qualitative research. For this purpose, by collecting and analyzing qualitative data, the main aspects of the studied phenomenon are determined. These aspects are considered as dimensions for the development of data collection tools. The data of this study were collected through interviews with experts and then classified by Delphi method. The criteria for selecting experts were theoretical mastery, willingness and ability to participate in research and access, which is stated in the table of sub-characteristics of the experts referred to. In the second stage, by designing a questionnaire, data related to the factor effects matrix were collected from the same experts and used in the analysis. In this analysis, two types of direct and indirect effects are separated and direct effects are obtained from the result of analyzing the effects of factors on each other. With Mikmak analysis and extraction of the main factors, the relationships between the variables can be examined and future scenarios can be prepared. Some key factors that have reinforcing or weakening relationships with each other create a specific scenario together. This situation, with small changes in other characteristics of each of the key factors, leads to the formation of new scenarios, the amount and number of which depends on the degree of change of each of the main factors in the future. Results The results indicate that the variables of diet, income, poor health facilities, sedentary lifestyle, lifestyle, ability to compensate, inflation and poverty in the village of Fahlian as the most important variables of effective social socialization in dealing with the prevalence Infectious diseases and coronary heart disease were identified and then the main social resilience scenarios were defined by Wizard Scenario Software 7, which was a favorable and promising situation scenario. Discussion The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge and attitude of experts towards the variables affecting the resilience of the rural community (Fahlian village) using structural analysis and in the framework of futuristic studies and using the scenario approach. The almost high percentage of filling (87%) in the research variables confirms the validity and reliability of the research tools at an almost high level. For this purpose, the present study, while measuring the direct effects of variables, also considered the dimensions of effect-indirect and potential dependence of variables in the spatial arrangement of variables and the formulation of key driving forces and final scenarios. Based on this and based on the findings of the implementation of the interaction analysis method, 7 scenarios for the future of social resilience of Fahlian village in the face of infectious diseases can be presented. Conclusion The present study tried to present the favorable and unfavorable model of Fahlian village in the face of infectious diseases similar to Covid 19 by using 35 indicators and using the model of Mikmak futuristic studies and interaction analysis. The most optimistic scenario is the number one scenario and the improvement of social status of Fahlian village should be based on this scenario. The worst case scenario is scenario number 2, which is more pessimistic about the future. The studies of these scenarios (seven scenarios) in Table (9) indicate the relative dominance of the number of critical situations over the desired situation. Meanwhile, with the exception of Scenario 1, which has desirable and evolving characteristics, other scenarios do not suggest a favorable future for social resilience in the face of infectious diseases. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Uncertainty, Social resilience, Infectious disease, Scenario writing, Fahlian village | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 192 |
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