تعداد نشریات | 161 |
تعداد شمارهها | 6,532 |
تعداد مقالات | 70,501 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 124,100,490 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 97,207,316 |
2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies | ||
Iranian Economic Review | ||
دوره 26، شماره 2، شهریور 2022، صفحه 269-288 اصل مقاله (1.47 M) | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2022.88164 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
Pierre Rostan* ؛ Alexandra Rostan | ||
College of Business, American University of Iraq, Baghdad, Iraq | ||
چکیده | ||
Projections of Persian Gulf Economies are obtained by forecasting their GDPs (constant 2010 US$) with spectral analysis until 2050. Persian Gulf Economies being oil-driven, the special relationship between oil price and Persian Gulf Economies is unfolded with Multiscale Principal Component Analysis and integrated into the forecasts. The GDPs are decomposed into clearer signals called approximations and details in the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis framework. The simplified signals are recomposed after the Burg extension. Spectral analysis forecasts are all bullish for the eight economies of the Persian Gulf. Two thousand fifty spectral analysis projections rank Iraq first with an annual growth rate of +2.37% and Iran second with +2.19%. The two laggers among the 2050 spectral analysis projections are Saudi Arabia (+1.37%) and Kuwait (-0.04%). Two thousand twenty-four spectral analysis projections rank Iran first with an annual growth rate compounded of +4.12% and Iraq second with +3.79%. In comparison, IMF projections rank Iraq first (+3.17%) and United Arab Emirates (+2.92%). The two laggers among the 2024 spectral analysis projections are Qatar (0.22%) and Kuwait (-3.74%), while the two laggers among the 2024 IMF projections are Saudi Arabia (+2.15%) and Iran (-0.30%). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brutally hurt the Persian Gulf Economies following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The individual effect on these economies will depend on the response brought by their respective governments. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
GDP؛ Spectral Analysis؛ Forecasts؛ Multiscale Principal Component Analysis؛ Persian Gulf Economies | ||
مراجع | ||
Berger, T. (2016). A Wavelet Analysis: Forecasting Based on Decomposed Financial Returns. Journal of Forecasting, 35(5), 419-433.
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Revised Edition. San Francisco, CA: Holden Day.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (3rd). Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Burg, J. P. (1975). Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Retrieved from http://sepwww.stanford.edu/theses/sep06/
Conejo, A. J., Plazas, M. A., Espinola, R., & Molina, A. B. (2005). Day-ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using the Wavelet Transform and ARIMA Models. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 20(2), 1035-1042.
Corinthios, M. (2009). Signals, Systems, Transforms, and Digital Signal Processing with MATLAB. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor and Francis Group, LLC CRC Press.
Daubechies, I. (1994). Ten Lectures on Wavelets. CBMS SIAM, 61, 198-202 and 254-256.
Debusmann, B. (2020). UAE, Saudi Economies to Bounce Back in 2021, Says IMF. Arabian Business, Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/445092-uae-saudi-economies-to-bounce-back-in-2021-says-imf
Durbin, J. (1960). The Fitting of Time Series Models. Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique, 28, 233-44.
Fassihi, F., & Myers, S. L. (2020). Defying U.S., China, and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership. The New York Times, Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/world/asia/china-iran-trade-military-deal.html
FocusEconomics. (2020a). Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/saudi-arabia
FocusEconomics. (2020b). Qatar Economic Outlook. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/qatar
FocusEconomics. (2020c). Oman Economic Outlook. Retrieved from https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/oman
FHI. (2019). Overview of Economic Forecasting Methods. Retrieved from http://www.fhi.sk/files/katedry/kove/predmety/Prognosticke_modely/Methods_basics.pdf
He, K., Wang, L., Zou, Y., & Lai, K. (2014). Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Entropy Optimized Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2014, 1-9.
IEEE. (2019). IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing. Retrieved from https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?punumber=78
Kao, L., Chiu, C., Lu, C., & Chang, C. (2013). A Hybrid Approach by Integrating Wavelet-based Feature Extraction with MARS and SVR for Stock Index Forecasting. Decision Support Systems, 54(3), 1228-1244.
Kirkpatrick, D., & Specia, M. (2019). Iran’s Seizure of British Vessel Further Roils Gulf Region. The New York Times, Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/world/middleeast/iran-british-tanker-drone.html
Kriechbaumer, T., Angus, A., Parsons, D., & Casado, M. (2014). An Improved Wavelet-ARIMA Approach for Forecasting Metal Prices. Resources Policy, 39, 32-41.
Kullab, S., & Qassim, A. Z. (2020). Mideast Economies Take Massive Hit with Oil Price Crash. APNews, Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://apnews.com/c59fda324fe68c48968f05278bce8137
Lee, D. T. L., & Yamamoto, A. (1994). Wavelet Analysis, Theory and Applications. Hewlett-Packard Journal, Retrieved from https://www.hpl.hp.com/hpjournal/94dec/dec94a6.pdf
Levinson, N. (1946). The Wiener RMS (Root Mean Square) Error Criterion in Filter Design and Prediction. Journal of Mathematical Physics, 25, 261-278.
MacDonald, F. (2020). One of the World’s Richest Petrostates Is Running Out of Cash. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-02/one-of-the-world-s-richest-petrostates-is-running-out-of-cash?sref=fgHqaWRV
Misiti, M., Misiti, Y., Oppenheim, G., & Poggi, J. M. (2015). Wavelet Toolbox for Use with MATLAB, User's Guide. Natick, MA: The MathWorks.
Ngai, C., Raimonde, O., & Longley, A. (2020). Oil Plunges Below Zero for First Time in Unprecedented Wipeout. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/oil-drops-to-18-year-low-on-global-demand-crunch-storage-woes?srnd=premium-asia
Ortega, L., & Khashanah, K. (2014). A Neuro Wavelet Model for the Short Term Forecasting of High Frequency Time Series of Stock Returns. Journal of Forecasting, 33(2), 134-146.
Rashad, M., & Kalin, S. (2019). Saudi Arabia Says It Seeks to Avert War, Ball in Iran's Court. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-emirates-tanker/saudi-arabia-says-it-seeks-to-avert-war-ball-in-irans-court-idUSKCN1SP01C
Renaud, O., Starck, J. L., & Murtagh, F. (2002). Wavelet-based Forecasting Short and Long Memory Time Series. Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/7134623.pdf
Rostan, P., Belhachemi, R., & Rostan, A. (2015). Appraising the Financial Sustainability of a Pension System with Signal Processing. Estudios De Economía Aplicada, 33, 1-16.
Rostan, P., Belhachemi, R., & Racicot, F. E. (2017). Forecasting the Yield Curve with the Burg Model. Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 91-99.
Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2021). Where is Saudi Arabia’s Economy Heading? International Journal of Emerging Markets, 6(8), 2009-2033.
---------- (2020a). Where is Austria’s Economy Heading? Economic and Business Review, 22(1), 105-130.
---------- (2020b). Where are Fossil Fuels Prices Heading? International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 15(2), 309-327.
---------- (2019). When will European Muslim Population Be Majority and in which Country? PSU Research Review, 3(2), 123-144.
---------- (2018a). The Versatility of Spectrum Analysis for Forecasting Financial Time Series. Journal of Forecasting, 37(3), 327-339.
---------- (2018b). Will Saudi Arabia Get Older? Will its Pension System Be Sustainable? Spectral Answers. PSU Research Review, 2(3), 189-205.
---------- (2018c). Forecasting Spanish Nominal and Real GDPs with Spectral Analysis. Estudios De Economía Aplicada, 36(1), 217-234.
---------- (2018d). Where is Greek’s Economy Heading? International Journal of Management and Applied Science (IJMAS), 4(3), 28-31.
---------- (2017). Population Projections and Pension System Sustainability. Saarbrücken: Lambert Academic Publishing.
Schlüter, S., & Deuschle, C. (2010). Using Wavelets for Time Series Forecasting: Does it Pay off? Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, IWQW Discussion Paper Series, Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/36698/1/626829879.pdf
Singh, A. (2020). Collapsing Crude Prices Will Bankrupt U.S. Shale Oil Stocks. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.ccn.com/collapsing-crude-prices-will-bankrupt-u-s-shale-oil-stocks/
Stiftung, B. (2018). Iran: Two Years After the Lifting of International Sanctions. New Perspectives on Global Economic Dynamics, Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://ged-project.de/allgemein-en/iran-two-years-after-the-lifting-of-international-sanctions/
Stoica, P., & Moses, R. (2005). Spectral Analysis of Signals. Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall.
Tan, Z., Zhang, J., Wang, J., & Xu, J. (2010). Day-ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Wavelet Transform Combined with ARIMA and GARCH Models. Applied Energy, 87(11), 3606-3610.
The World Bank. (2016). Iraq’s Economic Outlook- Spring 2016, Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iraq/publication/economic-outlook-spring-2016
Valens, C. (1999). A Really Friendly Guide to Wavelets. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from http://agl.cs.unm.edu/~williams/cs530/arfgtw.pdf
World Bank. (2020). Oman's Economic Update. Retrieved September 4, 2020, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/gcc/publication/oman-economic-update-april-2020 | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 636 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 975 |