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تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر حجم و دبی پیک سیلاب (مطالعۀ موردی: زیرحوضۀ قران تالار) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 1، فروردین 1401، صفحه 259-272 اصل مقاله (1023.62 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2022.333410.1576 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| تکتم ایمانی1؛ مهدی دلقندی* 2؛ صمد امامقلی زاده3؛ زهرا گنجی نوروزی2 | ||
| 1دانش آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، گروه آب و خاک، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود | ||
| 2استادیار گروه آب و خاک، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود | ||
| 3دانشیار گروه آب و محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییر خصوصیات رواناب به دلیل تغییر اقلیم، از اصلیترین نگرانیهای حال حاضر در برنامهریزی طولانیمدت منابع آب و حفاظت از سیلاب است. از اینرو، بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر هیدرولوژی و منابع آب اهمیت زیادی دارد. بنابراین، در این تحقیق تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر خصوصیات رواناب حوضۀ آبریز قران تالار مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به این‌منظور، از 22 مدل AOGCM و دو سناریوی انتشار گازهای گلخانهای (RCP4.5 وRCP8.5 ) برای تولید سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم استفاده شد. سری زمانی بارش روزانه برای دو دورۀ آتی (2099-2070 و 2021-2050) تحت سه سطح احتمالاتی (50/0، 75/0 و 90/0) محاسبه شد. سپس، بارش طرح با دورۀ بازگشتهای 2 تا 500 سال برای دورۀ گذشته و دورههای آتی تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد در دورههای آتی، در ماههای سرد سال، افزایش بارش و در ماههای گرم سال کاهش بارش را شاهد خواهیم بود. همچنین، خروجی مدل WMS مشخص کرد که در شرایط تغییر اقلیم (بسته به سناریو) مقدار دبی و حجم سیلاب برای باران طرح با دورۀ بازگشتهای مختلف، حدود 35 تا 110 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. میانگینگیری از نتایج دبی طرح با دورۀ بازگشتهای مختلف نشان داد در سطح احتمال 5/0، دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای هر دو دورۀ آتی افزایش حدود 30 درصدی دبی اوج و حجم سیلاب را برآورد میکنند و در سطح احتمال 75/0 و 90/0برای دورۀ آتی 2021-2050، هر دو سناریوی انتشار نتایج یکسانی دارند، اما طی دورۀ 2070-2099، مقدار افزایش دبی اوج در سناریوی RCP8.5 در مقایسه با RCP4.5 بیشتر است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ سناریوی انتشار؛ سیلاب؛ عدم قطعیت | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Effects of climate change on floods volume and peak discharge (Case Study: Qaran Talar sub-catchmaent) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Toktam Imani1؛ Mahdi Dalghandi2؛ Samad Emamgholizadeh3؛ zahra Ganji -noroozi2 | ||
| 1Shahrood University of Technology | ||
| 3Shahrood University of Technology | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Changes in runoff properties due to climate change are currently one of the main concerns in long term planning of water resources and float protection. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources. Therefore, in this research impacts of climate change on runoff properties of Qaran Talar sub-catchment were evaluated. For this purpose, 22 AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCp4.5 and RCP8.5) are used for the generation of climate change scenarios. Daily precipitation time series under 3 probability levels (0.50, 0.75, and 0.90) were generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099), and afterward design precipitation for 2 to 500-year return periods was determined for baseline and future periods. Results showed that in the future periods, in the cold and warm months of the year, we will expect an increase and decrease in rainfall, respectively. Outputs of WMS model indicated that under climate change conditions, the amount of peak discharge and the volume of floods for design rainfall of different return periods will increase by 35 to 110 percent. It was also found that at the probability level of 0.5, the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in both future periods estimate a 30% increase in peak discharge and flood volume. at the probability level of 0.75 and 0.90 during 2021-2050, both emission scenarios indicated the same results, but the amount of peak discharge increase in the period of 2099-2070 under RCP8.5 is higher compared to RCP4.5. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| climate change, emission scenarios, flood, uncertainty | ||
| مراجع | ||
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