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پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus در رویشگاه‌‌های مرتعی البرز جنوبی، استان قزوین | ||
| نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 75، شماره 2، شهریور 1401، صفحه 319-332 اصل مقاله (1.07 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrwm.2022.339573.1647 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| جواد معتمدی* 1؛ مرتضی خداقلی2 | ||
| 1دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییرات اقلیمی در دو دهه اخیر، یک موضوع جدی بوده و بسیاری از مطالعات، بر جنبه‌‌های مختلف آن متمرکز شده‌‌اند. در پژوهش حاضر، به بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش گونه Bromus tomentellus، پرداخته شد. برای اینکار، از 19 متغیر زیست اقلیمی و سه متغیر فیزیوگرافی و مدل رگرسیون لجستیک، برای تعیین کمیت تغییر اقلیم در سال 2050 و بررسی دقیق اثرات آن بر تغییر گستره گونه B. tomentellus استفاده شد. ابتدا با استفاده از 17 ایستگاه سینوپتیک داخل و مجاور استان، پایگاه داده متغیرهای بارش، دمای شبانه، دمای روزانه و متوسط دما، تشکیل و 19 سنجه اقلیمی، محاسبه شد. همچنین با استفاده از مدل رقومی ارتفاع، با دقت 30 متر؛ متغیرهای فیزیوگرافی شیب، جهت و ارتفاع، تهیه شد. سپس، نقاط حضور و غیاب گونه مشخص شد و با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک، رفتار رویشی آن، مشخص و نقشه مدلسازی شده و معادلات مربوطه در شرایط کنونی، محاسبه شد. با استفاده از معادلات فعلی و قرار دادن داده‌های استخراج شده از پایگاهWorldclime ؛ نقشه پراکنش آینده، برای سال 2050 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، تولید گردید. نتایج نشان داد؛ میانگین دمای سالانه (BIO1)، دامنه دمای سالانه (BIO7) و میانگین دمای سردترین فصل (BIO11)، بیشترین اهمیت را برای تناسب رویشگاه دارند که مقادیر آنها، با سخت‌‌تر شدن شرایط اقلیمی، افزایش می‌‌یابد. میانگین دمای سالانه در مکان‌‌هایی با احتمال وقوع بیشتر از 75 درصد؛ طی سه دهه آینده، 6/1 تا 1/2 درجه سانتی‌‌گراد، افزایش خواهد داشت. ارتفاع رویشگاه‌‌های مناسب آن نیز، 115 تا 190 متر، بیشتر خواهد شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ تغییر محدوده گونه‌‌ها؛ مدلسازی رویشگاه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Prediction of current and future range of Bromus tomentellus in southern Alborz rangeland habitats, Qazvin province | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Javad Motamedi1؛ Morteza Khodagholi2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades, and many studies have focused on its various aspects. In the present study, the effect of climate change on the distribution of Bromus tomentellus was investigated. To do this, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and logistic regression model were used to quantify climate change in 2050 and to study its effects on the change of B.tomentellus species. First, using 17 synoptic stations in and near the province, a database of precipitation variables, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also using the digital model of height, with an accuracy of 30 meters; physiographic variables of slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, the presence and absence points of the species were determined and using logistic regression, its vegetative behavior was determined and the modeled map and related equations in the current conditions were calculated. Using current equations and inserting data extracted from the Worldclime database; the future distribution map for 2050 was generated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed; the average annual temperature (BIO1), the annual temperature range (BIO7) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) are the most important for habitat fit, the values of which increase with increasing climatic conditions. Average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades, it will rise by 1.6 to 1.2 degrees Celsius. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Rangeland ecosystems, Climate change, Range shift of Species, Habitat modeling | ||
| مراجع | ||
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