پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 161 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,572 |
| تعداد مقالات | 71,021 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 125,497,732 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 98,759,244 |
مهاجرت گزینشی در ایران: الگوها و تفاوت ها | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| دوره 55، شماره 4، دی 1402، صفحه 139-153 اصل مقاله (1.68 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مستخرج از پایان نامه | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2022.344373.1008515 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| رسول صادقی* ؛ محجوبه امانی | ||
| گروه جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مهاجرت رخدادی گزینشی است و مهاجران نمونه تصادفی از جمعیت مبدأ نیستند.این موضوعی است که این مقاله با استفاده از داده‌های سطح خرد سرشماریهای نفوس و مسکن 1390 و 1395 در چارچوب شاخص‌هایی نظیر شدّت مهاجرت و سن در اوج مهاجرت به آن می‌پردازد.. از میان نظریات مطرح‌شده دراین‌باره، تلاش شده تا مفروضات نظریات مرتبط با چرخه عمر و زندگی که با واردکردن تعیین‌کننده‌های بلافصل سعی در نشان دادن اثرات این تعیین‌کننده‌ها در مشخص کردن الگوهای مهاجرتی در جوامع مختلف دارند موردبررسی قرار گیرند. نظریه تعیین‌کننده‌های بلافصل مهاجرت بر اثرگذاری برخی عوامل تغییر یابنده در زندگی فرد مانند ازدواج، شروع و پایان تحصیلات، و ورود به بازار کار که موجب تغییر وضعیت فرد در مراحل مختلف زندگی می‌شوند، بر گزینشی بودن فرایند مهاجرت تأکید دارد. نتایج بررسی نشان داد که در دهه 95-1385 با تأخیر سنی (به‌ویژه برای مردان) و شدّت کمتر مهاجرت در نقاط اوج آن روبرو بوده‌ایم. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که شدّت مهاجرت در تمام سنین در استان‌های بیشتر توسعه‌یافته بیشتر از سایر استان‌ها و در مناطق شهری بیشتر از مناطق روستایی بوده است. بعلاوه، بیشترین شدّت مهاجرت در میان جوانان، مردان، افراد متأهل، و تحصیل‌کردگان دانشگاهی بوده است. در دوره 95-1390 در مقایسه با دوره 90-1385، تفاوت‌های جنسیتی مهاجرت کاهش‌یافته و احتمال مهاجرت افراد با تحصیلات دانشگاهی افزایش‌یافته است. ازاین‌رو، عوامل چرخه عمر و گذارهای زندگی با شدّت مهاجرت هم‌خوانی داشته و در برخی دوره‌های چرخه زندگی مهاجرت به اوج خود می‌رسد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| مهاجرت گزینشی؛ شدّت مهاجرت؛ اوج مهاجرت؛ توسعه‌یافتگی؛ مهاجرت داخلی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Selective Migration in Iran: Patterns and Differences | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Rasoul Sadeghi,؛ Mahjoobe Amani | ||
| Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Extended Abstract Introduction On average, one million people have migrated and moved within the country in recent decades in Iran. Changing the pattern of rural-to-urban migration to inter-urban migration, increasing migration in geographical distances, increasing the share and participation of women in migration flows, regional inequalities, and increasing the emigration flows from the east and west to the central parts of the country, are the most important features of recent internal migration in Iran. Migration and internal displacements occur in response to various factors with different effectiveness. Based on the life course approach, migration depends on individual characteristics and includes diverse target groups. Migration is strongly linked to an individual’s passage through life course stages. The increase in migration in some periods of the life cycle affects migration selectivity. For example, people who are of the age to enter work or get married are more likely to leave home and migrate. In this regard, the article uses micro-census data from 2011 and 2016 and the indicators, such as migration intensity and age at migration peak, to examine migration in Iran. Methodology In this research, the secondary analysis of individual data of a two percent sample of Iran's population and housing censuses in the years 2011 and 2016 has been used. Four independent variables of age, gender, education, and marital status were used to examine migration selectivity. Two indicators of migration intensity and age profiles were calculated as dependent variables. Excel and SPSS software were used for data analysis. Using logistic regression, we investigated the effect of independent variables on the probability of migration during 2006-2016. Results and discussion The results of the study showed that in the recent decade, the highest inter-provincial migration intensity was related to Alborz and Semnan provinces, and the lowest values were related to Sistan and Baluchistan, Kerman, and West Azerbaijan provinces. The migration peak age was 24 years in 2011. The provincial differences in the peak age of migration varied from 21 years in Ardabil and Hamadan provinces to 31 years in Ilam and Lorestan provinces in 2011. The migration peak age increased to 28 years in 2016. Provincial differences in the migration peak age varied from 21 years in Qom province to 36 years in Illam province in 2016. The highest migration intensity at peak age was found in Bushehr and Semnan provinces in 2011 and Semnan and Alborz provinces in 2016. Therefore, in the transition stage to adulthood, people are in the healthiest state of life and can migrate and move more efficiently. Thus, the study's results showed that in the decade 2006-2016, we faced age delay (especially for men) and less migration intensity at its peak. A postponement of migration to older ages is consistent with a progressive delay in transitioning to adult roles later in life for both males and females. Migration in Asian countries is concentrated in the early 20s of life, while in Europe and North America, the peak of migration is at older ages, and its scope is more scattered. Based on the results, from 2011 to 2016 compared to the period of 2006-2011, gender differences in migration decreased. Of course, the results showed that men and women have different migration behaviors and reasons. Male migration age patterns are shaped by military service and employed-related moves, whereas females migrate for family- and education-related reasons. Therefore, migration is a gender construct and the role of women should be investigated in migration studies. Also, the results of the study indicated that the probability of migration of people with a university education has increased in recent years. As Bernard et al. (2018), stated there are several paths and channels through which education is related to migration: First, education facilitates migration by reducing costs and barriers to movement. Second, migration can allow migrants to acquire new skills through education. Hence, a significant number of young people migrate for further education. Finally, through migration, the distribution of human capital can change the share and composition of knowledge and skills in both origin and destination regions. Also, the results showed that the migration intensity among ever-married people is higher than among never-married people. Therefore, marital status is another factor affecting migration and decisions. Bernard et al. (2018) showed that family formation and marriage, which is one of the stages of transition to adulthood, affect migration patterns. Therefore, the most significant migration intensity has been among young people, men, married people, and university graduates. In addition, the results showed that migration intensity of all ages is higher in more developed provinces than in other provinces and urban areas than in rural areas. Conclusion In general, it can be concluded that from 2011 to 2016, compared to the period of 2006-2011, gender differences in migration decreased. On the contrary, the probability of migration of people with a university education has increased. Therefore, in some life cycle periods, the migration reaches its peak. Hence, life cycle and life transition factors are consistent with the migration intensity. Thus, migration is a selective process, and it can have different consequences for the origins and destinations of migration. As a result, it is essential to pay attention to the dimensions of migration selectivity in policy-making. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Selective migration, Migration intensity, Migration peak, Development, Internal migration | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
افقه، سید مرتضی؛ آهنگری، عبدالمجید و عسکری پور لاهیجی، حسین. (1399). برآورد شاخص توسعه انسانی استان‌های ایران و بررسی تأثیر آن بر رشد اقتصادی با استفاده از منطق فازی. فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری (بررسی‌های اقتصادی سابق)، 17(2)، 121-89. doi: 10.22055/jqe.2019.29152.2064 زندی، لیلا؛ ترکاشوند مرادآبادی، محمد و مولتری، تام. (1398). برازش الگوی سنی مهاجرت داخلی در ایران با برنامه مدل چند نمایی. دو فصلنامه مطالعات جمعیتی، 4 (2)، 133-109. زندی، لیلا؛ صادقی، رسول و عسکری ندوشن، عباس. (1398). ساختار فضایی مهاجرت‌های بین استانی در ایران: کاربرد مدل‌های لگاریتم خطی. نامه انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران 14، 111-69. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.1735000.1398.14.28.3.6 صادقی، رسول؛ شکریانی، محسن (۱۳۹۵). تحلیل نوسانات فضایی تأثیر توسعه بر مهاجرت داخلی-بین شهرستانی در ایران، توسعه محلی، 8 (۲)، 270-245. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrd.2016.63067 محمودیان، حسین و اردهایی قاسمی ، علی. (۱۳۹۲). بررسی وضعیت مهاجرت و شهرنشینی در ایران. تهران: پژوهشکده آمار. ویکس، جان. (۱۳۹۴). جمعیت مقدمه‌ای بر مفاهیم و موضوعات. ترجمه الهه میرزایی، تهران: موسسه مطالعات و مدیریت جامع و تخصصی جمعیت کشور، 287-337.
References Afghah, S. M., Ahangari, A. M., & Askaripour Lahiji, H. (2020). Estimating Human Development Index of Iranian Provinces and Investigating its Impact on Economic Growth Using Fuzzy Logic. Quantitative Economics Quarterly (Former Economic Reviews), 17 (2), 89-121. doi: 10.22055/jqe.2019.29152.2064 [In Persian] Zandi, L., Turkashund, Moradabadi, M., & Moltari, T. (2018) fitting the age pattern of internal migration in Iran with the multidimensional model Scedules. Demographic Studies Quarterly, 4 (2), 109-133. [In Persian] Zandi, L., Sadeghi, R., & Askari Nadoshan, A. (2019). Spatial structure of inter-provincial migrations in Iran: Application of linear logarithm models. Journal of Iran Demographic Association 14, 69-111. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.1735000.1398.14.28.3.6 [In Persian] Sadeghi, R. & Shokriani, M. (2016). Analysis of spatial fluctuations of the impact of development on internal-intercity migration in Iran. Local Development, 8(2), 245-270. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrd.2016.63067 [In Persian] Mahmoudian, H., & Ardahai Ghasemi, A. (2013). Studying the situation of migration and urbanization in Iran. Tehran: Research Institute of Statistics. [In Persian] Weeks, J. (2015). Population, an introduction to concepts and topics. translated by Elahe Mirzaei, Tehran:NIPR, 337-287. https://doi.org/10.2307/2064921 [In Persian] Bell, M., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, S., & Zhu, Y. (2020). Internal Migration in the Countries of Asia: A Cross-National comparison. Nature Switzerland AG, 150-171. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44010-7 Bell, M. & S. Muhidin.. (2009). Cross-national comparisons of internal migration, Human Development Research Paper 2009/30, United Nations Development Programme, Page 10. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46445511 Bernard, A., Bell, M., & Charles-Edwards, E. (2014). Life-Course Transitions and the Age Profile of Internal Migration. Population and Development Review, 40(2), 213-239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00671.x Bernard, A., Bell, M., & Charles-Edwards, E. (2016). Internal migration age patterns and the transition to adulthood: Australia and Great Britain compared. Journal of Popolation Research, 33, 123–146. http://www.jstor.org/stable/43919993. Bernard, A., Bell, M., & Cooper, J. (2018). Internal Migration and Education: A Cross-National Comparison, Background, paper prepared for the 2019 Global Education Monitoring Report Migration, displacement and education: Building bridges, not walls. United Nations, Pages 30-37. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000266070.locale=en Bongaarts, J. (1978). A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review, 4(1), 105–132. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972149 Boswell, T. D. (1977). Distance and migration selectivity in puerto rico prior to economic development. Revista Geográfica, 85, 189-203. Caritas Internationalis Working Document. (2012). The Female Face of Migration Background paper, Ems creative. https://www.caritas.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/FFMEnglores-1.pdf Geiger, M., & Pécoud, A. (2010). The Politics of International Migration Management. London: Palgrave MacMillan. DOI 10.1057/9780230294882 Hassan, R., Zang, X. & McDonnell-Baum, S. (1996). Why Families Move: A Study of Residential Mobility in Australia. ANZJS, 32 (1), 72-85. https://doi.org/10.1177/144078339603200107 Karachurina, L., & Mkrtchyan, N. (2020). Age-specifi c Migration in Regional Centres and Peripheral Areas of Russia. Comparative Population Studies, 44, 413-446. DOI:https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2020-12. Kulu, H., & Milewski, N. (2007). Family Change and Migration in the Life Course: An introduction. Demographic Research, 17, 567-590. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2007.17.19 Lee, E. (1966). A Theory Of Migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063 Parnwell, M. (1993). Population Movements and the Third World. Routledge Press. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203136300 Rogers, A. & Castro, L.J. (1981). Model Migration Schedules. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-81-030. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1543/1/RR-81-030.pdf Rogers, A., Little, J. & Raymer, J. (2010). the Indirect Estimation of Migration: Methods for Dealing with Irregular, Inadequate, and Missing Data. Springer. DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-8915-1 Sadeghi, R., Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., & Shahbazin, S. (2020). Internal Migration in the Countries of Asia: Chapter 15, Internal Migration in Iran, Chapter 15: Internal Migration in Iran. Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020, 295-319. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44010-7_15 Van Imhoff, E., & Keilman, N. (1991). an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands, Swets & Zeitlinger Amsterdam. NIDI/CBGS Pubications nr. 23. Amsterdam/Lisse: Swets & Zeitlinger. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 496 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 259 |
||
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب