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Is Population Growth a Requisite for National Economic Growth? A Revisit of the Debate Using Panel Data Analysis
|Iranian Economic Review
|مقالات آماده انتشار، اصلاح شده برای چاپ، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 06 آذر 1401
|شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2022.90025
|Anthony Onogiese Osobase* 1؛ Wilson Friday Ohioze2؛ Samuel Olayinka Musa3؛ Tope Joshua Ojo4؛ Ayobola Olufolake Charles5
|1Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Akoka-Yaba, Lagos state, Nigeria.
|2Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, National Open University of Nigeria, Jabi, Abuja, Nigeria.
|3Department of Economics, Caleb University, Lagos State, Nigeria.
|4Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun state, Nigeria.
|5Department of Economics, Trinity University, Lagos, Nigeria.
|This current paper reassesses the controversial discourse regarding the impact and predictability of economic growth by population growth using data from 66 countries that constitute 85 per cent of global population. The countries were drawn from the six continents and the panel data span through the periods 2001-2019. The variables include GDP per capita used to measure economic growth (Regressand), aggregate population, fertility rate, life expectancy, crude death rate as well as gross fixed capital formation. The Pedroni residual cointegration test, fixed effects estimator and panel causality tests were utilized to estimate the data at the regional and global levels. The result of the cointegration test established that the regressand and regressors have a long-run relationship both at the regional and global levels. Findings from the fixed effects model suggests that the main variable (population growth) exerts a negative significant effect on per-capita GDP in each continent. While the result for the whole continent advance that GDP per capita is adversely and significantly predicted by population growth and fertility rate whereas, gross fixed capital formation and crude death rate exert direct significant effect on the regressand. The panel causality result for the whole continent suggests that there is a two-way causality between the regressand and the regressors. Following the findings, it is recommended that pragmatic policy measures that will control the rising fertility rate, encourage skill acquisition programs and raise employment generation for the rising population will be a welcome development.
|Population Growth؛ Economic Growth؛ Fixed Effects Model؛ Causality Test
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