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عملکرد مدلهای AR4 در شبیهسازی پارامترهای اقلیمی دما و بارش با شبکۀ عصبی مصنوعی (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضۀ آبخیز قرهسو) | ||
اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
دوره 10، شماره 2، تیر 1402، صفحه 159-171 اصل مقاله (1.96 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2023.355784.1716 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
وحید کاکاپور1؛ مریم بیاتی خطیبی* 2 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، گروه سنجش از دور، دانشکدۀ برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز | ||
2استاد ژئومورفولوژی گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکدۀ برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز | ||
چکیده | ||
افزایش غلظت گازهای گلخانهای در جو با توجه به فعالیتهای انسانی مانند تغییرات کاربری و استفاده از سوختهای فسیلی به گرم شدن کرۀ زمین و عدم تعادل انرژی جهانی منجر شده است. این افزایش در گازهای گلخانهای موجب بروز پدیدهای به نام تغییر اقلیم شده است. در این تحقیق عملکرد 4 مدل GCM به نامهای HADCM3، CGCM3T63، 5.CSIROMK3،NCARCCSM3 (از مجموعه مدلهای AR4) تحت سناریوی A2 در شبیهسازی پارامترهای اقلیمی دمای میانگین و بارش حوضۀ قرهسو با استفاده از شبکۀ عصبی مصنوعی (ANN) مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. برای آموزش شبکۀ عصبی مصنوعی از مدل پرسپترون forward استفاده شد. مطابق با ارزیابی عملکرد مدلها با استفاده از ضرایب حداکثر خطای مطلق، میانگین قدر مطلق خطا، جذر میانگین مربعات و ضریب تبیین، در بین مجموعه مدل AR4، به طور میانگین مدل NCARCCSM3 بهترین عملکرد را در شبیهسازی پارامترهای اقلیمی دمای حوضۀ قرهسو دارد. این مدل همراه با CGCM3T63 کمترین اختلاف را با پارامتر اقلیمی دمای مشاهداتی دارند، در حالی که مدل CGCM3T63 کمترین اختلاف را با پارامتر اقلیمی بارش مشاهداتی دارند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد مدلهای CSIROMK3.5 و NCARCCSM3 بیشترین اختلاف را بهترتیب با پارامترهای اقلیمی دما و یارش مشاهداتی دارند. طبق نتایج شبکۀ عصبی ضریب تبیین برای دو پارامتر اقلیمی دما و بارش به طور میانگین بهترتیب 97//0 و 73/0 برای کل حوضه به دست آمد که نشاندهندۀ دقت شبکۀ عصبی در شبیهسازی این پارامتر دارد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تغییر اقلیم؛ مدلهای گردش عمومی جو؛ شبکه عصبی مصنوعی؛ شبکه عصبی چندلایه | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The performance of AR4 models in simulating climate parameters of temperature and precipitation with artificial neural network (Case study: Qara-Su watershed) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Vahid Kakapour1؛ Maryam Bayati Khatibi2 | ||
1Ph.D Student of RS & GIS, Department of RS & GIS, Faculty of Planning and Environment sciences, University of Tabriz ,Tabriz, Iran | ||
2Professor, Geomorphology , Department of RS and GIS , Faculty of Planning and environment sciences ,University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities such as changes in usage and use of fossil fuels has led to global warming and global energy imbalance. This increase in greenhouse gases has caused a phenomenon called climate change. In this research, the performance of 4 GCM models named HADCM3, CGCM3T63, 5.CSIROMK3, NCARCCSM3 (from the set of AR4 models) under scenario A2 in simulating the climate parameters of average temperature and precipitation in the Qara-Su basin using artificial neural network. ANN) were evaluated. The forward perceptron model was used to train the artificial neural network. According to the evaluation of the performance of the models by using the coefficients of the maximum absolute error, the average absolute value of the error, the root mean square and the coefficient of explanation, among the set of AR4 models, on average, the NCARCCSM3 model has the best performance in simulating the climatic parameters of the temperature of the Qara-Su area. This model together with CGCM3T63 has the least difference with the observed temperature climate parameter, while the CGCM3T63 model has the least difference with the observed precipitation climate parameter. Also, the results showed that the CSIROMK3.5 and NCARCCSM3 models have the biggest differences with the climatic parameters of temperature and observations, respectively. According to the results of the neural network, the coefficient of explanation for the two climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation are on average 0.97 and 73. 0 was obtained for the entire domain, which indicates the accuracy of the neural network in simulating this parameter. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Climate change, GCM, Artificial Neural Network, MLP | ||
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