سامانه پشتیبانی خدمات اطلاعات

  اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات158
تعداد شماره‌ها6,236
تعداد مقالات67,810
تعداد مشاهده مقاله115,293,041
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله90,038,393
Sayadi, Mohammad, Ghorbani Pashakolaie, Vahid. (1402). Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock; Implications from a Scenario-Based DSGE Model for Iran. , (), -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2023.92222
Mohammad Sayadi; Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaie. "Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock; Implications from a Scenario-Based DSGE Model for Iran". , , , 1402, -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2023.92222
Sayadi, Mohammad, Ghorbani Pashakolaie, Vahid. (1402). 'Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock; Implications from a Scenario-Based DSGE Model for Iran', , (), pp. -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2023.92222
Sayadi, Mohammad, Ghorbani Pashakolaie, Vahid. Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock; Implications from a Scenario-Based DSGE Model for Iran. , 1402; (): -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2023.92222

Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock; Implications from a Scenario-Based DSGE Model for Iran

Iranian Economic Review
مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 25 اردیبهشت 1402
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2023.92222
نویسندگان
Mohammad Sayadi* 1؛ Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaie2
1Department of Energy Economics & Resources, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2Department of Economics, Teesside University International Business School, Middlesbrough, England, United Kingdom
چکیده
Given that shocks such as the COVID-19 Pandemic are likely to occur in the future, it is important to understand how they affect macroeconomic variables. In addition to health shock, global oil price and demand slumped and oil-exporting countries have faced substantial oil shock and budget deficit from the COVID-19 outbreak. Considering the dynamic and stochastic nature of the COVID-19 outbreak, this study mainly aims to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of current COVID-19 shock through the lens of the micro-founded New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model. Our model has been simulated for Iran’s economy, as a major oil exporter and the worst damaged by COVID-19 among oil exporting countries. Since macroeconomic consequences of pandemics are highly dependent on the length and severity of shock persistency, hence three scenarios (optimistic, base, and pessimistic) have been considered and compared. The results are considered in four directions: first, the COVID-19 outbreak strongly influenced consumption, labor productivity, production (goods and services), government oil and tax revenues, and caused stagflation. Second, household response to COVID-19 shock is highly affected by the persistence of shock. Third, the policy response to a budget deficit in the period of COVID-19 is a great concern in oil-exporting developing countries. The policy response could potentially finance from oil-based sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in oil exporting countries. The IRFs analysis of the SWF-funded policy response indicated limited detrimental outcomes in services and production sector. Fourth, results from implementing a counterfactual tax scenario demonstrated that increasing the government tax base could significantly reduce government budget vulnerabilities during pandemics in oil-exporting developing countries.
کلیدواژه‌ها
COVID-19 Pandemic؛ DSGE Analysis؛ Macroeconomic؛ Budget Vulnerability؛ Persistence of Shock
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 154


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب