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تبیین الگوی چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی و نأثیر آن بر امنیت اقتصادی (مطالعه موردی: استان بوشهر) | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| دوره 55، شماره 4، دی 1402، صفحه 245-262 اصل مقاله (1.18 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مستخرج از پایان نامه | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2023.347570.1008530 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیدمحمود علوی1؛ بهادر زارعی* 1؛ یاشار ذکی1؛ سیدموسی حسینی2 | ||
| 1گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران. | ||
| 2گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| کمبود منابع آب واژه‌ای است که با ورود به قرن بیست‌ویک بیشتر با آن مواجه هستیم. ایران به‌ویژه استان بوشهر به دلایل مختلف از جمله رشد جمعیت، فرایند صنعتی شدن، کمبود بارش، خشک‌سالی‌های پیاپی، برداشت بی‌رویه از منابع آب با چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی روبرو است. پژوهش حاضر در صدد تبیین و ارزیابی چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی استان بوشهر و تأثیر آن بر امنیت اقتصادی استان بوده است. روش این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی، از نظر ماهیت اکتشافی و از نظر داده ترکیبی است، به‌این‌ترتیب که داده‌های کیفی پژوهش از طریق واکاوی متون و رجوع به خبرگان به‌وسیله ابزار مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته گردآوری گردید. در فاز کمی پژوهش، داده‌ها با استفاده از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته به کمک 165 نفر از کارشناسان حوزه آب و با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای چندمرحله‌ای جمع‌آوری گردید. تجزیه‌وتحلیل این پژوهش در دو بخش کیفی و کمی صورت گرفته است. در بخش کیفی از تحلیل مضامین از طریق فرایند کدگذاری نظری در سه مرحله کدگذاری باز، محوری و گزینشی انجام‌شده است. در بخش کمی با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای SPSS و Smart-PLS به تحلیل داده‌ها در دو بخش توصیفی و استنباطی پرداخته‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که دو نوع چالش هیدروپلیتیکی برون‌استانی و درون استانی تأثیرگذار بر امنیت اقتصادی استان، قابل تبیین است، با توجه به یافته‌های به‌دست‌آمده از ارزیابی کلی مدل تحقیق، فرضیه کلی پژوهش مبنی بر اینکه چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی استان بوشهر بر امنیت اقتصادی استان تأثیرگذار است، مورد تأیید واقع‌شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی؛ امنیت اقتصادی؛ منابع آب؛ استان بوشهر؛ ضریب تأثیرات | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Explaining the pattern of hydropolitic challenges and its impact on economic security (case study: Bushehr province) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| seyed mahmood alavi1؛ behador Zarei1؛ Yashar Zaki1؛ seyed mousa hosseini2 | ||
| 1Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran. | ||
| 2Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Extended Abstract Introduction Based on the arid and semi-arid region of the south of the country, Bushehr province receives a large part of its water needs from the water resources of the neighboring provinces of Fars, Kohgiluyeh, and Boyer Ahmad, with successive droughts and little and irregular rainfall; thus it is facing a water challenge. Due to the existing conditions and the reduction of water resources in the neighboring provinces, there is a possibility of water cuts, conflicts, and hydropolitical tensions. Lack of water, in addition to its effect on economic security and creating local and regional tensions, the development process of this province faces a problem. It is expected that if this trend continues, the province will face more hydropolitical challenges in the future. The current research aims to explain and evaluate the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and its effect on the economic security of the province. This research seeks to answer the following question: -What are the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and what is its effect on the economic security of the province? Methodology In terms of the purpose, the present research is applied in terms of exploratory nature and in terms of mixed data, which means that in the qualitative phase of the research, semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, as well as indirect observation (reading of texts), were used. In the quantitative phase of the research, a survey study was used to collect data. Then, based on the organized themes of the qualitative phase, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed in the form of a five-point Likert scale, and after validation and reliability, 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method. Completed Finally, after coding, extracting and using SPSS26 and Smart-PLS statistical software, the research data were tested and interpreted in two sections: descriptive and inferential. Result and discussion The research findings have been made in two parts as qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part, after reviewing the texts and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, they have been analyzed. After discovering and enumerating, the conceptual model of Bushehr province's hydropolitical challenges and economic security of Bushehr province has been drawn. In the quantitative section, after coding, the data obtained from the questionnaire were extracted and transferred to SPSS26 and Smart-PLS software and were analyzed and interpreted in two parts: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. The independent variable of hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province is above the average level with 45.466 (with a test average or cut-off line of 36), and the dependent variable of economic security with 80.392 (with a test average or cut-off line of 63). Therefore, it indicates that the amount of hydropolitical challenges in Bushehr province is relatively high because this rate is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions. The second and third hypotheses of the research have been confirmed at the error level of 0.01. However, the first hypothesis has not been confirmed, considering that the T test value is below 1.96. Conclusion The descriptive findings of the research show that the independent variable of Bushehr province's hydropolitical challenges with an average of 45.466, and its dimensions include extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 6.406 and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 39.060 and the dependent variable of economic security with an average of 80.3925 in the statistical population under investigation is above the test average or the cut-off line. Therefore, they are not in a favorable situation because their level is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions measured by the variables. The inferential findings of the research also show the first hypothesis of the research, "There is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and the economic security of the province," according to the T value of 0.848 is less than 1.96 and its significance level is more significant than 0.05. As a result, this hypothesis is rejected. The second hypothesis of the research, "there is a significant effect between intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and economic security of the province," its T value is 3.220, which is greater than 2.58. Therefore, its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis of the research, "there is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges," its T value is equal to 3.04, which shows that its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the third hypothesis is also confirmed. According to the findings obtained from the evaluation of the research model, the research's general hypothesis that Bushehr's hydropolitical challenges affect the economic security of the province is confirmed. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Hydropolitic challenges, Economic security, Water resources, Bushehr province, Coefficient of effects | ||
| مراجع | ||
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