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تبیین الگوی چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی و نأثیر آن بر امنیت اقتصادی (مطالعه موردی: استان بوشهر) | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 01 خرداد 1402 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مستخرج از پایان نامه | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2023.347570.1008530 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیدمحمود علوی1؛ بهادر زارعی* 2؛ یاشار ذکی3؛ سیدموسی حسینی2؛ پرویز بیات4 | ||
| 1جغرافیای سیاسی، جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 4استادیار مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان بوشهر | ||
| چکیده | ||
| چکیده کمبود و چالش منابع آب واژه‌ای است که با ورود به قرن بیست و یک بیشتر با آن مواجه هستیم. کشور ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪﻭﻳﮋﻩ استان بوشهر ﻧﻴﺰ به دلایل ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﻴت، فرایند ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ شدن، ﻛﻤﺒﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ، ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲهای پیاپی، ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺑﻲﺭﻭﻳﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ غیره ﺑﺎ چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی روبرو است. پیش‌بینی می‌شود در صورت ادامة این روند، استان در آینده با چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی بیشتری روبرو شود. پژوهش حاضر در صدد تبیین و ارزیابی چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی استان بوشهر و تأثیر آن‌ها بر امنیت اقتصادی استان بوده است. روش این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت اکتشافی و از نظر داده ترکیبی است، به این ترتیب که داده‌های کیفی پژوهش از طریق واکاوی متون و رجوع به خبرگان به‌وسیلة ابزار مصاحبۀ نیمه ساختار‌یافته که از طریق روش نمونه‌گیری نظری انتخاب شده بودند گردآوری گردید. در فاز کمی پژوهش، داده‌ها با استفاده از پرسشنامة محقق‌ساخته به کمک 165 نفر از کارشناسان حوزة آب و جغرافیای سیاسی استان بوشهر و با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای چند مرحله‌ای انتخاب شده بودند، جمع‌آوری گردید. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش در بخش کیفی نشان می‌دهد که دو نوع چالش هیدروپلیتیکی برون استانی و درون استانی تأثیرگذار بر امنیت اقتصادی استان، قابل تبیین است، و در بخش کمی نشان می‌دهد که اولاً میزان چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی درون استانی و برون استانی و نیز تأثیر آن بر امنیت اقتصادی استان بالا‌تر از میانگین آزمون یا خط برش می‌باشد. ثانیاً مدل باز تولید شدة تجربی از برازش و همانندی نسبتاً مطلوبی با مدل مفهومی برخوردار می‌باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| چالشهای هیدروپلیتیکی؛ امنیت اقتصادی؛ منابع آب؛ استان بوشهر؛ ضریب تأثیرات | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Explaining the pattern of hydropolitic challenges and its impact on economic security (case study: Bushehr province) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| seyed mahmood alavi1؛ behador Zarei2؛ Yashar Zaki3؛ seyed mousa hosseini2؛ Parviz Bayat4 | ||
| 1political geography، geography، University of Tehran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran | ||
| 3Assistant Professor of Political Geography Tehran University | ||
| 4Assistant Professor at Bushehr Province Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Abstract Water shortage and challenge are words we are facing more as entering the 21st century. Iran, especially Bushehr province, is facing hydropolitical challenges due to various reasons such as population density, industrialization process, lack of rainfall, successive droughts, over-abstraction of water resources, etc. If this trend continues, it is anticipated that the province will face more hydropolitical challenges in the future. The present study seeks to explain and evaluate the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and their effect on economic security. In terms of purpose, the method of this research is the applied method, in terms of nature, it is exploratory, and in terms of data, the qualitative data of the research was collected through the analysis of the texts and referring to the experts using the semi-structured interview tool, which was selected through the theoretical sampling method. In the quantitative phase of the research, the data was collected using a researcher-made questionnaire, getting the help of 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province and using a multi-stage cluster sampling method. In the qualitative part of the research, the results show that two types affecting the economic security of the province can be explained, extra-provincial and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges; The results in the quantitative part show that firstly, the amount of intra- and extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and its impact on the economic security of the province is higher than the average test or the Cut-off line. Secondly, the experimentally reproduced model has a relatively favorable fit and similarity with the conceptual model. Introduction Water is an element that is necessary for economic development, raising the standard of living and health, etc. Bushehr province, located in the arid and semi-arid regions of the south of the country, with successive droughts and low and irregular rainfall supplies, facing a kind of hydropathetic challenge, as it receives a large part of its water needs from the water resources of the neighboring provinces such as Fars and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad. Due to the existing conditions and the reduction of water resources in the neighboring provinces, there is a possibility of hydropolitical tensions. The purpose of the current research was to explain and evaluate the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and their effect on the economic security of the province. This research seeks to answer the question of what are the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and what is its effect on the economic security of the province. Research Methods The current research is practical in terms of its purpose, exploratory in nature and combined in terms of data; In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, as well as indirect observation (reading of texts) were used. In the quantitative phase, a survey study was used to collect data. Then, based on the organized themes of the qualitative phase, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed in the form of a five-point Likert scale, and after validation and reliability, 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province completed that were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method. Finally, after coding, the research data were extracted, tested and interpreted using SPSS26 and Smart-PLS statistical software in two sections, descriptive analysis, and inferential analysis. Findings The findings of the research have been made in two parts, qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part, after analyzing the texts and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, they have been analyzed, after the discovery and calculation of the conceptual model of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province, as well as the economic security indicators of Bushehr province, have been drawn. In the quantitative part, the data obtained from the questionnaire after coding, they were extracted and transferred to SPSS26 and Smart-PLS software and analyzed and interpreted in two parts: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. The independent variable of hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province with 45.466 (with a test average or cut-off line of 36) and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with 80.392 (with a test average or cut-off line of 63) is above the average level, therefore it indicates that the amount of hydropolitical challenges in Bushehr province is relatively high; Because this rate is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of measured questions. The second and third hypotheses of the research have been confirmed at the error level of 0.01. But the first hypothesis considering that the T-test value is below 1.96, has not confirmed. Conclusion The descriptive findings of the research show that the independent variable of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province is the average of 45.466 and its dimensions include extra-provincial hydro-political challenges with an average of 6.406 and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 39.060 and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with an average of 80.3925 in the studied statistical population are higher than the test average or the cut-off line. Therefore, they are not in a favorable situation, because their level is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions measured by the variables. The inferential findings of the research also show that the first hypothesis of the research's T-value of 0.848 is less than 1.96 and its significance level is greater than 0.05, so this hypothesis is rejected. The second hypothesis of the research's T-value is 3.220 and greater than 2.58. Therefore, its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis of the research's T-value is equal to 3.04, which shows that its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the third hypothesis is also confirmed. Therefore, goodness of the fit of this model, which is equal to 0.198, yields the general hypothesis of the research "The model of the effect of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province on the economic prosperity of the province has the required fit" is confirmed. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Hydropolitic challenges, Economic security, Water resources, Bushehr province, Coefficient of effects | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 25 |
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