مدل پیش‌بینی آگاهانۀ بحران در ورزش: فوتبال حرفه‌ای ایران

نظری, رسول; صیرفیان باب الدشتی, مهران; رحیمی, قاسم

doi:10.22059/jsm.2023.353302.3088

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	مدل پیش‌بینی آگاهانۀ بحران در ورزش: فوتبال حرفه‌ای ایران
نشریه مدیریت ورزشی
مقاله 20، دوره 15، شماره 3، آبان 1402، صفحه 370-352 اصل مقاله (1.01 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jsm.2023.353302.3088
نویسندگان
رسول نظری^* ¹؛ مهران صیرفیان باب الدشتی²؛ قاسم رحیمی²
¹گروه مدیریت ورزشی دانشکده علوم ورزشی ، واحد اصفهان( خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
²گروه مدیریت ورزشی، دانشکده علوم ورزشی، واحداصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
چکیده
مقدمه: بحران به‌عنوان یک اختلال فوق‌العاده در عملیات استاندارد شناخته می‌شود که ایمنی و موفقیت یک سازمان را تهدید می‌کند. تا پیش از وقوع بحران، این فرصت وجود دارد که با پیش‌بینی و مدیریت بحران‌های احتمالی، از برخی آسیب‌های جدی، پیشگیری کرد. خلأ پیش‌بینی آگاهانۀ بحران‌ها در فوتبال حرفه‌ای ایران، به چشم می‌آید. ازاین‌رو هدف این تحقیق، ارائۀ مدل پیش‌بینی آگاهانۀ بحران در فوتبال حرفه‌ای ایران است. روش پژوهش: تحقیق حاضر از نوع کیفی است و با انتخاب رویکرد ساخت‌گرا از راهبرد داده‌بنیاد انجام شد. داده‌های این پژوهش که ماهیتی اکتشافی- بنیادی داشت، از طریق نمونه‌گیری هدفمند با تکنیک گلوله‌برفی و بر اساس مصاحبه‌های عمیق نیمه‌ساختاریافته با 19 نفر از خبرگان مدیریت ورزشی آشنا با بحث بحران در ورزش جمع‌آوری شد. یافته‌ها: اشباع نظری کدهای باز، شروع کدگذاری متمرکز است؛ پس از آن محورهای اصلی مشخص شدند. بدین‌صورت که پس از حدود 197 جملۀ پیاده‌سازی‌شده از مصاحبه‌ها، پس از حذف موارد تکراری، 121 مفهوم اولیه و مقوله در کدگذاری اولیه، سپس، 31 کد متمرکز به دست آمد و در نهایت در هفت کد محوری، مقوله‌های اصلی ارائه شدند. نتیجه‌گیری: ریشۀ همۀ بحران‌های احتمالی که احتمال وقوعشان در فوتبال حرفه‌ای ایران وجود دارد، باید مشخص شود و پس از آن باید آسیب‌شناسی هر بحران با در نظر گرفتن اینکه دنیای امروزی، سرشار از عدم قطعیت‌های گوناگون، پیچیدگی فراوان، ابهامات بسیار و نوسان‌های کنترل‌نشدنی است، انجام گیرد. پس از آن با تفکر پیش‌بینی آگاهانه، سناریوهای مختلف و مربوط به هر بحران، طراحی شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ریسک؛ پیش‌بینی؛ مدیریت بحران؛ ورزش حرفه‌ای؛ فوتبال
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Conscious Prediction Model of Crisis in Sports: Professional Football in Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Rasool Nazari¹؛ Mehran Seirafian Baboldashti²؛ Ghasem Rahimi²
¹Department of Sport Management, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
²Department of Sport Management, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Introduction: Crisis is known as an extraordinary disorder in standard operations that threatens the safety and success of an organization. Before the crisis, there is an opportunity to prevent some serious damages by predicting and managing possible crises. The gap of conscious prediction of crises in professional football of Iran is clear. Therefore, the current study set to propose a model of conscious crisis prediction for professional football of Iran. Methods: A qualitative study was conducted, selecting a constructivist approach of the Grounded Theory strategy. Exploratory-fundamental data were collected using targeted, snowball sampling technique based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with 19 experts of sports management familiar with sports crisis. Results: Theoretical saturation of open codes is the beginning of centralized coding. Afterwards, the primary axes were identified, i.e. after transcribing about 197 sentences of the interviews and excluding duplicates, 121 primary concepts and categories were obtained in the initial coding, and then 31 centralized codes were obtained; finally, the main categories were presented in seven central codes. Conclusion: The root of all possible crises likely to occur in Iran's professional football must be determined. Afterward, the pathology of crises should be indicated, taking into account that today's world is full of different uncertainties, abundant complexities, ambiguities, and uncontrollable fluctuations. Then, conscious prediction should be applied to design different scenarios associated with every crisis.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Rrisk Prediction Crisis management, Professional sports Football

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مدل پیش‌بینی آگاهانۀ بحران در ورزش: فوتبال حرفه‌ای ایران

- Brown, N. A., & Billings, A. C. (2013). Sports fans as crisis communicators on social media websites. Public relations review, 39(1), 74-81.

- Charmaz, K. (2005). Grounded theory in the 21st century: A qualitative method for advancing social justice research. Handbook of qualitative research, 3(7), 507-535.

- Shah mansouri E.A., & Mozafari S.A.A. (2006). The causes of accession in sport crisis and the ways for preventing them in software, hardware, liveware and mass media arenas. Research on sport science, 4 (12), 87- 106. (in persian)