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نیکنامی, رکسانا. (1402). تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست. , 1(4), 631-665. doi: 10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066
رکسانا نیکنامی. "تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست". , 1, 4, 1402, 631-665. doi: 10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066
نیکنامی, رکسانا. (1402). 'تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست', , 1(4), pp. 631-665. doi: 10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066
نیکنامی, رکسانا. تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست. , 1402; 1(4): 631-665. doi: 10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066

تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست

مطالعات کشورها
دوره 1، شماره 4، 1402، صفحه 631-665    اصل مقاله (1.12 M)
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066
نویسنده
رکسانا نیکنامی*
گروه مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
پس از بحران مالی سال 2008م، موضوع امنیت غذایی به یکی از دستورکارهای اصلی امنیتی کشورهای جهان تبدیل شد. سه عنصر تغییر اقلیم، همه‌گیری کووید-19 و منازعات مسلحانه دلایل اصلی دامن‌زدن به این بحران قلمداد می‌شود. منازعه‌های مسلحانه، به‌لحاظ تاریخی، همواره بر ناامنی غذایی داخل کشورها مؤثر بوده است‌؛ بااین‌حال، تهاجم روسیه به اوکراین در 2022م سبب شد ناامنی غذایی در بستر جهانی تسری یابد. درواقع، با توجه به میراث شوم بحران مالی ناشی از همه‌گیری و بدترشدن وضعیت تغییر اقلیم، زمان‌بندی این جنگ به‌گونه‌ای است که امنیت غذایی را به بحرانی تمام‌عیار تبدیل کرده است. با توجه به این توضیح، هدف در مقالة حاضر پاسخ به این پرسش است که جنگ اوکراین چگونه در عرصة جهانی به بحران امنیت غذایی دامن زده است؟ در پاسخ می‌توان این فرضیه را طرح کرد که جنگ اوکراین با ایجاد ناامنی در دسترسی به غذا، در دسترس‌بودن غذا، استفاده از غذا و تداوم زنجیرة عرضه به بروز بحرانی جهانی در این حوزه منجر شده است. برای آزمون این فرضیه، از روش تحلیل راهبردی پِست بهره گرفته ‌شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که جنگ اوکراین به‌طور مستقیم (تأثیر بر توزیع غذا، آوارگی مردم، کمبود نیروی کار کشاورزی، تبدیل غذا به سلاح و افزایش قیمت‌ها) از یک‌سو و غیرمستقیم (افزایش قیمت نهاده‌ها شامل کود و انرژی) بحران امنیت غذایی جهانی را تشدید کرده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
امنیت غذایی؛ بحران غله؛ جنگ اوکراین؛ زنجیرة عرضه؛ سلاح‌سازی غذا
عنوان مقاله [English]
The effect of Ukraine war on global food security based on PEST's strategic analysis model
نویسندگان [English]
Roxana Niknami
Regional Studies Department, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
After the financial crisis of 2008, the issue of food security befitted one of the main security agendas of the world's countries. Three elements of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflicts are the fundamental reasons for fueling this crisis. Historically, armed conflicts have always been effective in food insecurity within countries; however, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has caused food insecurity to spread globally. In fact, communicated the ominous legacy of the financial crisis caused by the pandemic and the worsening climate change situation, the timing of this war endured such that it has turned food security into a full-blown crisis. Given this explanation, the purpose of this research is to answer the question, how has the war in Ukraine fueled the food security crisis in the world? In response, the war in Ukraine has caused a global crisis in this area by creating insecurity in accessibility, availability, utilization of food, and stability of the supply chain. To consider this hypothesis, the PEST analysis method has been used. The key findings of the research show that the aggressive war in Ukraine directly (profound effect on food distribution, displacement of people, lack of agricultural labor, weaponization of food, and inflation) on the one hand and indirectly (progressively increasing the ultimate price of inputs including fertilizer and energy) food security crisis has intensified the world food insecurity.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
food security, food weaponization, grain crisis, supply chain, Ukraine war
سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله
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