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تحلیل روند تغییرات دمای سطح زمین (LST) بر شبکة مناطق حفاظتشده و گونههای کانونی (Focal species) استان یزد | ||
نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی | ||
دوره 76، ویژه نامه مناطق تحت حفاظت، بهمن 1402، صفحه 277-289 اصل مقاله (1.2 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jne.2023.365415.2598 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مریم مروتی* 1؛ پیمان کرمی2 | ||
1گروه علوم و مهندسی محیطزیست، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران. عضو پژوهشکده آب، انرژی و محیط زیست | ||
2گروه محیطزیست، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه ملایر، همدان، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
پیشبینی تغییرات رخداده در محیطزیست، در حال حاضر به یکی از شاخههای مهم مطالعات محیطی تبدیلشده است. یکی از این پیشبینیها بررسی تأثیرات احتمالی تغییرات دما روی گونههای گیاهی و جانوری است. در این پژوهش هدف آن است تا از دمای سطح زمین (LST) ماهوارة مودیس، به تفکیک فصول بهار، تابستان، پاییز و زمستان برای بررسی روند تغییرات در میانگین دمای سطح زمین در مناطق حفاظتشده و زیستگاه گونههای کانونی استفاده شود. گونههای کانونی استان شامل، پلنگ، یوزپلنگ، کل و بز، قوچ و میش، آهوی ایرانی و جبیر میباشند. در یک مطالعة میدانی نقاط حضور بین سالهای 1399 تا 1402 از سراسر استان و مناطق حفاظتشده جمعآوری شدند و میانگین فصلی LST نیز از سال 2003 تا 2033 با استفاده از تولیدات (MYD11A1) ماهوارة مودیس در سامانة گوگل ارث انجین آماده شد. با استفاده از مدلهای توزیع گونه (SDMs) و تلفیق مدلهای رگرسیونی و یادگیری ماشین زیستگاه گونهها مدلسازی شد. همچنین از آستانة TSS برای تبدیل نقشة احتمال مطلوبیت زیستگاه به نقشة دودویی استفاده گردید. آزمون تحلیل روند من-کندال (MK) برای تحلیل روند تغییرات افزایشی و کاهشی دما در سطح معنیداری 95 درصد بکار رفت. یافتهها نشان میدهد که تغییرات کاهشی دمای سطح زمین بهصورت پراکنده و بدون پیوستگی در سطح رخ داده است اما تغییرات افزایشی دما با پیوستگی فضایی بیشتری همراه هستند. بیشترین روند کاهشی دما در فصل بهار با 15212/69هکتار در زیستگاه آهوی ایرانی رخ داده است در حالیکه در فصل زمستان هیچ تغییر کاهشی در دما رخ نداده است. مناطق حفاظتشده در فصل بهار کمترین روندهای افزایشی و کاهشی LST را تجربه کرده است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
استان یزد؛ تغییر دما؛ گسترة توزیع؛ گونة کانونی | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Analyzing land surface temperature (LST) changes in the protected area network and focal species in Yazd Province | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Maryam Morovati1؛ Payman Karami2 | ||
1Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture & Natural Resources, Ardakan University,Ardakan, Iran. Water, Energy and Environment Research Institute,Ardakan University, | ||
2Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Forecasting changes in the environment has now become one of the important branches of environmental studies. One of these predictions is to investigate the possible effects of temperature changes on plant and animal species. In this research, the aim is used the land surface temperature (LST) of the MODIS satellite, separately for spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, to investigate the changes in the average LST in the protected areas and the habitat of focal species. Focal species of the province include Panthra pardus, Acinonyx jubatus, Capra aegagrus, Ovis orientalis, Gazella subgutturosa and Gazella bennettii. In a field study, the presence points were collected between 1399 and 1402 from all over the province and protected areas, and the seasonal average of LST from 2003 to 2033 was prepared using MODIS satellite products (MYD11A1) in the Google Earth Engine system. Species habitat was modeled by using SDMs and combining regression models and machine learning. Also, the TSS threshold was used to convert the habitat desirability probability map into a binary map. Man-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test was used to analyze the trend of increasing and decreasing temperature changes at a significance level of 95%. The findings show that the decreasing changes in the earth's surface temperature have occurred in a scattered and non-continuous manner on the surface, but the increasing temperature changes are associated with more spatial continuity. The highest decrease in temperature occurred in the spring season with 15,212.69 hectares in the Iranian deer habitat, while there was no decrease in temperature in the winter season. Protected areas have experienced the least increasing and decreasing LST trends in spring. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Distribution range, Focal species, Temperature changes, Yazd province | ||
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