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ارزیابی روشهای توسعه مدل اقلیمی چندگانه برمبنای CMIP5 برای بررسی پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 54، شماره 11، بهمن 1402، صفحه 1609-1625 اصل مقاله (1.66 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2023.364087.669553 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
هادی رمضانی اعتدالی* 1؛ سکینه کوهی2؛ زهرا پرتوی3 | ||
1گروه علوم و مهندسی آب ، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران | ||
2گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران | ||
3گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
با توجه به اهمیت شناخت تاثیرات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخشهای مختلف، همچنین ادغام مدلهای GCMs و توسعه مدل اقلیمی چندگانه (ECM)، پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی کارایی مدلهای اقلیمی گزارش پنجم تغییر اقلیم (CMIP5) در شبیهسازی تغییرات متغیرهای جوی موثر بر پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا شامل میانگین دمای هوا، سرعت باد و رطوبت هوا و همچنین مقدار آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا انجام گرفت. همچنین کارایی الگوریتم بهینهسازی در توسعه مدل اقلیمی چندگانه از دیگر اهداف مهم این پژوهش به شمار میرود. لازم بذکر است که در تحقیق حاضر از داده-های 16 ایستگاه سینوپتیک در محدوده شمال، شمالغرب ایران طی دوره آماری 2005-1991 استفاده شده است. براساس نتایج این پژوهش عملکرد مدلهای اقلیمی به صورت منفرد در شبیهسازی تغییرات سرعت باد و رطوبت نسبی هوا ضعیف ارزیابی میشود. درحالیکه کاربرد روش بهینهسازی ضرایب منجر به کاهش میزان خطا و اریبی خروجیهای اقلیمی در تخمین سرعت باد و رطوبت نسبی هوا شده است. علاوه بر این، بررسی کارایی مدلهای اقلیمی در تخمین مقدار آب قابل استحصال حاکی از عملکرد قابلقبول مدل اقلیمی چندگانه در شبیهسازی تغییرات مقدار آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا می-باشد. بطورکلی نتایج نشان داد که ایستگاههای منجیل و بندرانزلی مستعدترین منطقه برای اجرای طرحهای استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا میباشند، درمقابل ایستگاههای اراک و همدان از کمترین پتانسیل برای استحصال آب برخوردار میباشند، براساس نتایج، متوسط آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا در فصل تابستان برای ایستگاههای فوق 56/1 و 78/1 لیتر در روز در متر مربع برآورد شده است. همچنین بررسی تغییرات فصلی پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت نشان داد که پتانسیل استحصالی آب از رطوبت هوا در فصل تابستان بیشتر از سایر فصلها میباشد، بنابراین ضروری است که مدیریت منابع آب و کشاورزی، برنامهریزی و اقدامات جدی به منظور استفاده از این منبع آبی برای کاربرد در بخشهای کشاورزی، آبیاری فضای سبز و حتی در صورت کفایت از نظر کمی و کیفی برای تامین بخشی از نیاز شرب صورت پذیرد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
Atmospheric Variables؛ Climate Change؛ CORDEX؛ Unconventional Water Sources | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Evaluation of Ensemble Climate Model development methods based on CMIP5 to investigate the potential of water harvesting from air humidity | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
hadi ramezani etedali1؛ Sakine Koohi2؛ Zahra Partovi3 | ||
1Water sciences and engineering, department, faculty of agricultural and natural resources. Imam Khomeini international university, Qazvin, Iran. | ||
2Water sciences and engineering, department, faculty of agricultural and natural resources. Imam Khomeini international university, Qazvin, Iran. | ||
3Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Recognizing the effects of climate change in different sectors, as well as the integration of GCM models and the development of Ensemble Climate Models (ECM) are vital. In this study, the efficacy of the climate models from the CMIP5 in simulating atmospheric variables impacting the potential for water harvesting was assessed. These variables encompass mean air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and the feasible quantity of water harvested from air moisture. Also, assessing the efficiency of the optimization algorithm (Genetic Algorithm) in the development of an ensemble climate model was another goal of this research. It is noteworthy that the present investigation employed data from 16 synoptic stations situated in the northern and northwestern regions of Iran during the statistical period of 1991-2005. Results indicated that the performance of individual climate models in simulating variations in wind speed and relative air humidity is deemed poorly. Conversely, GA has yielded a reduction in both error magnitude and biases in climatic outputs in estimating wind speed and relative air humidity. Furthermore, the evaluation of the efficacy of climate models in estimating the water harvesting potential from air humidity indicates the acceptable performance of ECM in simulating changes in the amount of extractable water from air humidity. In general, the results showed that Manjil and Bandar-Anzali stations are the most suitable areas for the implementation of water harvesting projects from air humidity. Conversely, Arak and Hamedan stations exhibit the least potential for water harvesting. Based on the results, the average water that can be extracted from air humidity in the summer season for Manjil and Bandar-Anzali stations is estimated to be 1.56 and 1.78 (l/day.m2). Also, the seasonal changes of water harvesting potential from air humidity showed that the potential of extracting water in summer is more than the other seasons. This accentuates the urgency of water resource management and agricultural planning, prompting the implementation of substantial measures to use this water source. The potential applications of using this source encompass agricultural sectors, green space irrigation, and potentially catering to a portion of drinking water demands, contingent upon quantity and quality parameters. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
تغییر اقلیم, متغیرهای جوی, CORDEX, منابع آب نامتعارف | ||
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