پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,240 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,867 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,408,136 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 90,177,221 |
لویاتان غایب و برافتادن جمهوری: آسیب‌شناسی ناکامی دموکراسی‌سازی در افغانستان (2001-2021) | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 16، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 32، اسفند 1402، صفحه 323-347 اصل مقاله (806.25 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2024.369756.450186 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهدی نجف زاده1؛ رضا سرحدی* 2 | ||
| 1دانشیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران | ||
| 2پژوهشگر پسادکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پیدایش گروه طالبان در عرصۀ سیاست افغانستان در دهۀ ۱۹۹۰ و به‌دست‌آوردن قدرت از مهم‌ترین فراز‌های سرنوشت‌ساز این کشور محسوب می‌شود. سقوط آنان و آغاز دورۀ جمهوری در سال ۲۰۰۱ نوید ورود افغانستان به مسیر دموکراسی را می‌داد، اما پیدایی دوبارۀ طالبان در تابستان ۲۰۲۱ جامعۀ جهانی را شوکه کرد. در این نوشتار می‌خواهیم ناکامی افغانستان در دموکراسی‌سازی در سال‌های ۲۰۰۱ تا ۲۰۲۱ را از دریچه سنت توسعه‌پژوهی دارون عجم اوغلو و جیمز ای رابینسون و با تأکید بر سیاست، اقتصاد و تاریخ واکاوی کنیم. با رویکرد کیفی و روش جامعه‌شناسی تاریخی‌تبیینی در پی پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که دلیل ناکامی دموکراسی‌سازی در افغانستان و برآمدن دوباره و سریع طالبان برآیند چیست؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که ماهیت دولت در افغانستان به‌دلیل ساختار و طراحی ضعیف و قدرت ضددموکراسی جامعه با لویاتان غایب هم‌خوانی دارد. در چنین بستری قفس هنجارها تعیین‌کنندۀ سیاست و مانع تقویت هم‌زمان دولت (بهروزی اقتصادی و اجتماعی) و جامعه (درونی‌شدن ارزش‌های جدید و هوشیاری) و برآمدن لویاتان مقید برای گذار به دموکراسی شده است. برایند این موارد راه را برای بازگشت دوبارۀ اقتدارگرایی طالبان هموار کرد. داده‌های این نوشتار از راه مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و اسنادی گردآوری شده است و در چارچوب نظریۀ عجم اوغلو و رابینسون بررسی و تحلیل شده‌اند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که دموکراسی‌سازی در افغانستان هنگامی موفق است که لویاتان از حالت غایب خارج شود و به تقویت جامعه با محوریت فرسایش قفس هنجارهای ضدتوسعه نگاه ویژه داشته باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| گذار؛ دموکراسی؛ ظرفیت دولت؛ ظرفیت جامعه؛ قفس هنجارها؛ افغانستان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Absent Leviathan and the Fall of the Republic: An Examination of Democratization Failures in Afghanistan (2001-2021) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| mehdi najafzadeh1؛ reza sarhaddi2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| 2Postdoctoral Researcher in Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan during the 1990s and their seizure of power was an important event in the fate of this country. Their fall and the establishment of the republican system in 2001 seemed to herald Afghanistan's entry into the corridor of democracy. However, the unexpected resurgence of the Taliban in the summer of 2021 was surprising to the world. This article attempts to examine the shaky process of democratization in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021, from theoretical perspective of Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson. This analysis seeks to answer this question: : what causes to the failure of democratization in Afghanistan and the rapid return of the Taliban? The integration of these factors facilitated the restoration of authoritarianism by the Taliban. The data in this article has been collected through library and documentary studies and analyzed in the framework of Acemoglu and Robinson's theories. The findings show that democratization of Afghanistan grows with the emergence of the Leviathan and empowers the society by eliminating anti-development norms. Despite international efforts for democratization that began at the Bonn Conference, Afghanistan's recent history witnessed the sudden fall of the Islamic Republic and the rapid return of the Taliban. The goal of the conference was to establish a new government and end the Taliban rule, but Afghanistan's deviation from the democratic path and the rapid resurgence of the Taliban reveals deeper complexities beyond common themes such as a collapsing state or systemic corruption. The vital role of participatory governance and social empowerment for sustainable democracy in Afghanistan was neglected. This failure highlights the complex relationship between govenment and society that is crucial to the maintainance of democracy. Therefore, we will further analyze the failure of democratization in Afghanistan and ultimately, the rapid revival of the Taliban. Emphasizing the nature of the state and society in Afghanistan and its consequences on democratization will be our focus. Research question: what causes to the failure of democratization process in Afghanistan and the rapid return of the Taliban? Research hypothesis: The hypothesis is that the nature of govenment in Afghanistan aligns with an absent Leviathan due to the weak structure and anti-democratic power of society. In such a setting, the cage of norms dictates policies and prevents the simultaneous strengthening of both the state and society, thus preventing the emergence of a Shackled Leviathan as a counterbalance to democracy. Methodology and theoretical framework: This research examines the prerequisites for the transition to democracy in Afghanistan with a historical sociology approach. It rejects a simplistic and linear view and instead emphasizes the interplay of political and social factors. Drawing on more recent perspectives like Acemoglu and Robinson's, it highlights the necessity of a balanced relationship between state power and social consciousness. This balance, called the "Red Queen Effect," emphasizes the need for both the goverment and society to evolve and compete to preserve individual rights and independence and ultimately stenghten democratic transition. Acemoglu and Robinson analyze the normative barriers of democracy as the "cage of norms." Under the constraints of norms and the weakening of the state's capacity as another basis for the transition to democracy, the simultaneous empowerment of society and the state and the emergence of the Shackled Leviathan as an optimal transition point to democracy will not happen. Results and discussion: Afghanistan's weak state structure and social dominance hinder democratic transition. Norms constrain policy, halts govenmental and social progress and thwart a Shackled Leviathan. The lack of unified power hinders the use of resources and provision of public services and fuels poverty. Tribal values exacerbate the exploitation and violence that has become normal since the war. State-Social competition fails and hinders progress. Even intermediary institutions such as Jamiat-e-Islami, Hizb-e-Islami and Dawat-e-Islami did not prioritize increasing their modern capacity to collaborate with the govenment. The Afghan national government ignored the influence of the “Red Queen” concept and instead promoted specific tribal groups, a policy that was at odds with social awareness. During the democratization years, it was not the state but rather the actions of foreign forces that prevented major events such as the re-emergence of the Taliban. The stability of the state was not inherently linked to its authority. In a realm where there is no single authority (akin to an absent Leviathan), social support may falter or cease at any moment, affecting the stability of the state. This moment in Afghanistan coincided with the fall of the republic and the rapid rise of the Taliban. Conclusion: During Afghanistan's Republican era, the absent Leviathan struggled to enforce laws, curb violence, resolve conflicts and provide public services. In fact, Afghanistan had wrapped itself in a facade of democracy, yet it had not even set foot in its corridor. The weak structure of this supposedly democratic system led to internal conflicts even during elections, deepened the state's weaknesses and limited the nation's development potentials amid foreign interventions. The divisions of Afghan society challenge the American narrative that simply hands the country over to the Taliban. The re-emergence of anti-modern authoritarianism was a gradual process, not a sudden event. Afghanistan lacks strong state authority which dims the prospects for democracy or stability. The lack of state authority and the resistance of rival factions perpetuate the cycle of violence. Escaping this, requires more than temporary changes—it requires leadership and dismantling the norms that fuel this cycle. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Transition, Democracy, State Capacity, Societal Capacity, Cage of Norms, Afghanistan | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abbaszadeh Marzabali, Mohsen and Kowsar Talishi Kelti (2022), “The Taliban and Governance Recovery: Strong Movement, Weak National State”, Fundamental and Applied Studies in the Islamic World, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 105-130, (doi: 10.22034/FASIW.2022.350464.1179), [in Persian]. Abreu, Welles M. and Ricardo C. Gomes (2022), "Shackling the Leviathan: Balancing State and Society Powers against Corruption”, Public Management Review, Vol 24. No. 8, pp. 1182-1207, (doi:10.1080/14719037.2021.1893802). Acemoglu, Daron, and James A. Robinson (2020), The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, Translated by Seyyed Alireza Beheshti Shirazi and Jafar Kheirkhahan, Tehran: Rozaneh Publications. [In Persian]. “Afghan Cleric's 'Fatwa' Against Media Makes Life Even More Dangerous for Journalists”, (2018), United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (2018), Available at: https://www.refworld.org/cgibin/texis/vtx/rwmain?Page= search&docid=5bc05140a&skip=0&query=democracy&coi=AFG&searchin=fulltext&sort=date (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “Afghanistan in 2016 - A Survey of the Afghan People”, (2016), The Asia Foundation, Available at: https://sandbox.asiafoundation.org/wp-content/ uploads/2016/12/2016_Survey-of-the-Afghan-People_full-survey.Apr2017.pdf (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “Afghanistan: Girls Struggle for an Education”, (2017), Human Rights Watch, Available at: https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/10/17/afghanistan-girls-struggle-education (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “Afghanistan: The Future of the National Unity Government”, (2017), International Crisis Group, Available at: https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/ 285-afghanistan-the-future-of-the-national-unity-government%20%281%29.pdf, (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Aminian, bahador and Maedeh Karimi Ghahroodi (2012), “The Strategy of "Nation-Building" by the United States in Afghanistan”, Political Science, No. 1, pp. 69-97, (doi: 10.30497/pk.2012.779) [in Persian]. Bicchieri, Cristina (2006), The Grammar of Society: The Nature and Dynamics of Social Norms, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Centeno, Miguel A. and Agustin E. Ferraro (2013), Paper Leviathans: Historical Legacies and State Strength in Contemporary Latin America and Spain, Republics of the Possible, pp. 399-416, (doi: 10.1017/CBO9781139342667. 025). Chiovenda, Andrea (2020), Crafting Masculine Selves: Culture, War, and Psychodynamics in Afghanistan, Oxford University Press. Çiçen, Yıldırım Beyazıt (2020), “Interaction of Formal and Informal Institutions and the Economic Results: A Game Theoretical Analysis”, in book: Studies on Economic Sciences: Livre de Lyon. Deledda, Antonella (2006), “Afghanistan–the End of the Bonn Process”, Transition Studies Review, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 155-171, (doi: 10.1007/s11300-006-0097-9). Edwards, Lucy M. (2010), “State-Building in Afghanistan: a Case Showing the Limits?”, International Review of the Red Cross, Vol. 92, No. 880, pp. 967 -991, (doi:10.1017/S1816383111000099). Faqiri, Sayed Mohammad and Abdul Shakoor Faqirzada (2021), “Social Barriers to Nation Building in Afghanistan”. Humanities, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 19-25, (doi: 10.34293/sijash.v9i1.3887). Farzanepour, Hossein and Naser Yousefzehi (2017), “The Historical Application of the Theory of Elites and a Critique of the Role of Agents in the Fragility of Afghan Governments”, Political Research in the Islamic World, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 95-122, Available at: http://priw.ir/article-1-364-fa.html, (Accessed on: 2/9/2023) [in Persian]. Fateminejad, Ahmad and Mojtaba Alawi (2023), “Explaining Afghanistan's National Security with Respect to the US-Iran Conflict (2001-2021)”, Iranian Research Letter of International Politics, Vol. 11, No. 22, pp. 245-268, (doi: 10.22067/ irlip.2022.72753.1162) [in Persian]. Fishman, Robert M (2017), “How Civil Society Matters in Democratization: Setting the Boundaries of Post-Transition Political Inclusion”, Comparative Politics, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 391-409, (https://doi.org/10.5129/001041517820934294). “Fragile States Index Annual Report 2020”, (2020), The Fund for Peace, Available at: https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fsi2020-report-updated.pdf, (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “GDP Per Capita (Current US$) - Afghanistan”, (2023), Worldbank, Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?contextual=default&end=2021&locations=AF&name_desc=false&start=2001 (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “GDP Per Capita Growth (Annual %) - Afghanistan”, (2023), Worldbank, Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG? locations=AF&name_desc=false (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Hasnifar, Abdul Rasul, and Shakib Zarbi Qala Hamami (1402), “The Theory of Obstacles to Entering the Democratic and Participatory Political Culture in Afghanistan”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 51-73, (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2023.352419.450119). Holcombe, Randall G. (2020), Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson: The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, Public Choice, Vol. 184, pp. 463-466, (doi:10.1007/s11127-020-00805-6). Inglehart, Ronald, and Christian Welzel (2003), Political Culture and Democracy: Analyzing Cross-Level Linkages, Comparative Politics, Vol. 36, No.1, pp. 61-79, (doi: 10.2307/4150160). “Internally Displaced Persons, New Displacement Associated with Conflict and Violence (Number of Cases)” (2023), world-statistics, Available at: https://world-statistics.org/indexres.php?code=VC.IDP.NWCV?name=Internally %20displaced%20persons,%20new%20displacement%20associated%20with%20conflict%20and%20violence%20(number%20of%20cases) (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Kafi, Majid (2014), Historical Sociology (Foundations, Concepts, and Theories), Qom: The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [in Persian]. Khalili, Mohsen (2020), “Corona-Virus’s A Game of Thrones”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 15, No. 58, pp. 73-118, (doi:10.22034/ipsa.2020.401) [in Persian]. Khalili, Mohsen (2022), Afghanistan: Pre-Nation, Non-State, Mashhad: Badakhshan [in Persian]. Khan, Muhammad Khurshid (2020) “Afghanistan at the Cross-Roads after Doha Agreement”, CISS Insight Journal, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 95-115, available at: https://journal.ciss.org.pk/index.php/ciss-insight/article/view/198/190 (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Larson, Anna (2011), “Deconstructing “Democracy” in Afghanistan”, Available at: https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4dbfc8c72.pdf (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Lerner, Daniel (2004), Passage of Traditional Society: Modernization of the Middle East, Translated by Gholamreza Khajeh Sarvi, Tehran: Strategic Studies Research Institute [in Persian]. Lewis, Paul (2009), Political and Economic Forms of Modernity: Understanding Modern Societies, Vol.1, translated by Hassan Mortezaee, Tehran: Agah. Lipset, Seymour Martin (2021), Political Man: the Social Bases of Politics, Translated by Fariborz Majidi, Tehran: SAMT [in Persian]. Loyn, David (2019), “Politics without Parties: Afghanistan’s Long Road to Democracy”, Asian Affairs, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 40-59, (doi: 10.1080/03068374. 2019.1567101). Mac Ginty, Roger (2010), “Warlords and the Liberal Peace: State-Building in Afghanistan” Conflict, Security & Development, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 577-598, (doi:10.1080/14678802.2010.500548). Macraild, Donald M. and Taylor, Avram. (2004), Social Theory and Social History, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Peceny, Mark, and Yury Bosin (2011), “Winning with Warlords in Afghanistan”, Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 603-618, (doi: 10.1080/ 09592318.2011.599166). Pherali, Tejendra, and Arif Sahar (2018), “Learning in the Chaos: A Political Economy Analysis of Education in Afghanistan”, Research in Comparative and International Education, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 239-258, (doi: 10.1177/1745499918781882). Positive Peace Report (2022), “Positive Peace Report: Analysing the Factors that Build, Predict and Sustain Peace”, Available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/PPR-2022-web.pdf (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “Poverty in Afghanistan”, (2018), Worldbank, Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/451111535402851523/pdf/AUS0000426-REVISED-ALCS-Poverty-Chapter-upload-v2.pdf (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Rosto, Walt (2009), Stages of Economic Growth, Translated by Mehdi Taqavi and Shaleh Baqeri, Tehran: Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch [in Persian]. Saleem, S. M., Shoib, S., Dazhamyar, A. R., and Chandradasa, M. (2021), “Afghanistan: Decades of Collective Trauma, Ongoing Humanitarian Crises, Taliban Rulers, and Mental Health of the Displaced Population, Asian Journal of Psychiatry, 65, (doi: 10.1016/j.ajp.2021.102854). Schroden, Jonathan (2021), “Afghanistan’s Security Forces Versus the Taliban: A Net Assessment”, CTC Sentinel, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 20-29, available at: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/afghanistans-security-forces-versus-the-taliban-a-net-assessment/ (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Shaker, Mahmod, (2005), Afghanistan (Story, Homeland, People), Translated by Azizullah Alizada Malistani, Tehran: Sharī'ati Afghanestani, Mohammad Ibrahim [in Persian]. Sinaee, Vahid and Naser Yousefzehi (2019), “Study of the Economic Development Status of Afghanistan in the Age of Democracy (2001-2017)”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 345-363, (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2019.264648.449788) [in Persian]. “Statistical Analysis of the Results of the 2019 Presidential Election and Investigation of the Level of Participation of the Provinces” (2020), 8AM.Media, Available at: https://8am.media/fa/statistical-analysis-of-the-presidential-election-results-and-provincial-turnout-survey/ (Accessed on: 2/9/2023) [in Persian]. “Taliban and Afghanistan's Educational System; Focus on the Expansion of Religious Schools Promoting Extremism” (2023), Shafaqna, Available at: B2n.ir/x33665 (Accessed on: 2/9/2023) [in Persian]. “Taliban Religious Schools and Afghanistan's Terrifying Future”, (2023), Jomhor News, Available at: https://www.jomhornews.com/fa/article/159910/ (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). [in Persian]. “The 2021 Women, Peace and Security Index”, (2021), Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, Available at: https://giwps.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/WPS-Index-2021.pdf, (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “The Assessment of the Extent of Compliance with the Convention Prohibiting any form of Racial Discrimination in Afghanistan”, (2018), Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission, Available at: https://pajhwok.com/wpcontent/ uploads/old/%D8%AF%D8%B1%DB%8C%20%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%20%DB%B1%DB%B8%20%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AA(3)_compressed(1).pdf, (Accessed on: 2/10/2023). “The Factors That Have Contributed to the Rise of the Taliban's Power in Afghanistan” (2017), Mizan Online News Agency, Available at: B2n.ir/n06611 (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). “The Story behind China’s Long-Stalled Mine in Afghanistan”, (2017), The Diplomat, Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-story-behind-chinas-long-stalled-mine-in-afghanistan/ (Accessed on: 2/9/2023). Verkoren, Willemijn, and Bertine Kamphuis (2013), “State Building in a Rentier State: How Development Policies Fail to Promote Democracy in Afghanistan”, Development and Change, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 501-526, (doi: 10.1111/dech. 12029). Zurn, Christopher F (2002), “Deliberative Democracy and Constitutional Review”, Law and Philosophy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, pp. 467-542, available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3505058, (Accessed on: 13/11/2023). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 88 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 86 |
||