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برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی مسکن بر مبنای سناریونویسی، مطالعه موردی: شهر خرم‌آباد | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 03 تیر 1403 اصل مقاله (2.73 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مستخرج از پایان نامه | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2024.358505.1008596 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| آذر مرادی منفرد1؛ احمد خادم الحسینی* 2؛ صفر قائدرحمتی3؛ حمید صابری4 | ||
| 1دانشجو | ||
| 2دانشکده علوم انسانی ،گروه جغرافیا، واحد نجف آباد ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، نجف آباد، ایران | ||
| 3دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
| 4گروه جفرافیا، واحد نجف‌آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‌آباد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| طرح مسئله: با رشد جمعیت شهرها نیاز به مساکن جدید احساس شد، آینده پژوهی ازجمله گفتمان‌های جدید بارویکردمشارکتی است که در تلفیق با برنامه‌ریزی مسکن شهری دیدگاه‌های نوینی را دراین حوزة ایجاد می‌کند. هدف: پژوهش حاضر با دیدگاه آینده‌پژوهی و با هدف شناسایی عوامل کلیدی و استراتژیک تاثیرگذار بر برنامه‌ریزی مسکن شهر خرم آباد و تهیه سناریوهای محتمل و باور کردنی و شناسایی سناریو های سازگار برای وضعیت آینده مسکن شهر خرم آباد با توجه به شرایط طبیعی، کالبدی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی شهر و بومی‌سازی سناریو ها انجام شده است. روش پژوهش: این مقاله از نوع کاربردی است و به‌روش توصیفی، تحلیلی و پیمایشی انجام شده است. از نظر روش‌شناسی نیز، با استفاه از علم آینده پژوهی و مبتنی بر شیوۀ راهبردی با تحلیل‌های استراتژیک است. تعداد 30 نفر از خبرگان برنامه‌ریزی شهری ومسکن شهر خرم‌آباد درآن مشارکت داشته‌اند. نتایج: با استفاده از مطالعات پیشین و فرا دستی مسکن و تکمیل پرسشنامه متخصصین و مصاحبه‌های انجام‌شده با گروه‌های کانونی، مجموعة پیشران‌های اثرگذار در آیندۀ شهر خرم آباد شناسایی و براساس روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع بررسی شد، که 6 سناریو با حالت‌های خوش بینانه و آرمان شهری، مطلوب، ادامه وضع موجود، واقع بینانه، بدبینانه و بحرانی بدست آمد، درنتیجه سناریوهای پیشنهادی عبارتند از: ایجاد انگیزه جهت سرمایه‌گذاری در بافت فرسوده، افزایش تراکم در مناطق قابلیت‌دار، بهسازی و نوسازی مساکن واقع در بافت‌های تاریخی، توسعۀ مسکن با حمایت دولت، استفاده از اراضی بایر قابل‌برنامه‌ریزی، کنترل نوسانات شدید در بخش مسکن، افزایش درآمد سرانه شهروندان. واژه‌های کلیدی: برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی مسکن، مسکن شایسته، شهر خرم آباد، سناریوهای مسکن، سناریو ویزارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی مسکن؛ مسکن شایسته؛ شهر خرم آباد؛ سناریوهای مسکن؛ سناریو ویزارد | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Strategic housing planning based on scenario writing, case study: K horramabad city | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| azar moradi monfared1؛ Ahmad Khadim al-Husseini2؛ safar ghaedrahmati3؛ Hamid Saberi4 | ||
| 1student | ||
| 2: Department of in Geography, Najaf Abad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najaf Abad , Iran | ||
| 3عضو هیأت علمی | ||
| 4Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Background Housing is not only a basic human need, but also one of the best indices to determine living standard. With the rapid growth of big cities and their suburbs in developing countries, housing has turned into a very serious problem. Although this problem may exist everywhere in the world, it is more critical in developing countries due to the rapid growth of population and urbanization, internal migrations, dearth of sufficient financial resources, problems related to land supply and provision of construction materials, inadequate specialized manpower, and most importantly, inefficient land and housing policies and programs. Because of the growth of the population in the cities, the need for new housing is more felt. With the increase of this need since the 20th century, governments have felt responsible to provide housing for people and organize new housing policies and measures. Suitable housing should be evaluated not only in terms of physical dimensions but also in relation to the biological, cultural, social, economic and security needs of its residents. The city of Khorramabad has recently faced the housing problem due to conditions such as high population rate, rural-urban migrations, centralization of administrative and political services, centralized policy management, shortage of residential land and high price of land and housing, young age pyramid, increase of young couples as housing applicants etc. Method This research has employed a mixed-methods (qualitative and quantitative) approach. It is applied in terms of purpose, and descriptive-analytical and exploratory by nature. The necessary data were collected in two ways: Document review (from library where the necessary information and statistics were collected from reliable sources such as the Statistical Centre of Iran, Ministry of Roads & Urban Development, Central Bank, etc.) and field study (survey). Moreover, the scenario planning method was used to draw a logical and believable future (scenarios) using Mic Mac software and scenario wizard for housing planning in the city. At this stage, the Delphi method was used to identify the influencing factors on the future housing situation in the city of Khorramabad. When the primary influencing factors were identified, a questionnaire was given to the experts to comment on the primary factors and identify other influencing factors on the future housing situation in the city. Results By examining the questionnaire and experts' opinions, 77 factors were identified as influencing factors. After entering the variables into Mic Mac software, the experts were invited to rate the variables, within cross impact analysis matrix, from 0 to 3 and P according to the significance and influence of the elements and their dependence on each other. The dimensions of the matrix were 77*77, and the filling degree of the matrix was 96.12%. The distribution of variables that influence the future status of housing planning in the city shows that most of these variables are centered around the plan, indicating the instability of the system. In addition to measuring the direct effects of the variables, the current research has examined the dimensions of the indirect latent dependence of the variables in the spatial configuration of variables and formulating the key driving forces and final scenarios. After identifying the strategic and practical indicators of all key driving elements, 12 variables were obtained as key driving factors in the housing planning system of the city of Khorramabad, which were divided into two groups of direct and indirect influencing elements with different priorities. In order to enter these elements into the wizard scenario software environment for qualitative analysis, the descriptors and subsets related to each of these 12 variables were defined in the form of 12 descriptors with their unique situations in the scenario wizard software environment. The descriptors and factors related to each descriptor were fully entered into the system environment. Then, by stating the possible states for each of these descriptors, a balanced cross impact analysis matrix was formed with 12 descriptors and in 36 different states. Then, the statistical sample (expert panel) was asked to rate them from 3 to 3 according to the degree of influence of each descriptor on other descriptors and related factors as well as the formed matrix. Therefore, while the descriptors were compared and standardized, the contribution of each of the descriptors to developing the housing planning scenarios in the city was detected. After examining the scenarios in terms of compatibility, compatibility value and compatibility amount, 12 scenarios with weak and impossible situations, very desirable situations, desirable situations and moderate compatibility situations were presented. Therefore, according to the findings of the research, out of the 12 scenarios regarding the housing planning in Khorramabad, there are 6 scenarios with a high level of compatibility (green status), 3 scenarios with a stable and unchanged condition (yellow status), and 3 scenarios with a weak and inconsistent status (red status=instability and crisis). Conclusion This research has been achieved by identifying key and strategic factors by planning in the sane city room, producing likely and believable scenarios in the final drawing of a scenario where the future in this city is located. The following scenarios are proposed: Creating incentives to invest in worn-out urban textures, increase density in eligible areas, develop housing with government support, use programmable wasteland, control severe fluctuations in the housing sector, and increase the per capita income of citizens. Examining the current conditions of housing in the city of Khorramabad shows that if the conditions are assumed to be from critical to desirable, it can be said that the current system is not in a good condition. Therefore, it is necessary to take note of the19 key factors affecting housing planning, which can play a key role in the success of housing planning in the city in the future. Keywords: Strategic housing planning, decent housing, housing scenarios, scenario wizard. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Strategic Housing Planning, Decent Housing, Khorramabad City, Housing Scenarios, Scenario Wizard | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 153 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 130 |
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