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برآورد ارزش تفریحی منطقۀ کوهستانی توچال با استفاده از الگوی اقتصادسنجی دومرحلهای هکمن | ||
| محیط شناسی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 39، شماره 4، اسفند 1392، صفحه 17-28 اصل مقاله (491.87 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jes.2014.36459 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| هومان لیاقتی* 1؛ افسانه نعیمی‌فر2؛ نغمه مبرقعی3 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد محیط‌زیست و منابع پژوهشکدۀ علوم محیطی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی | ||
| 2استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شهر قدس | ||
| 3استادیار گروه اقتصاد محیط‌زیست و منابع پژوهشکدۀ علوم محیطی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ارزش‌گذاری کالاها و خدمات اکوسیستمی از جمله روش‌های حفاظت از اکوسیستم‌ها و استفادۀ مناسب از آن‌ها به شمار می‌آید، زیرا این خدمات غالباً فاقد بازار واقعی‌اند و رایگان تلقی می‌شوند. این در حالی است که اکوسیستم‌ها فراهم‌آورندۀ طیف وسیعی از خدمات‌اند که موجب ارتقای سطح رفاه زندگی بشر می‌شوند. یکی از انواع این خدمات، خدمات تفرجی اکوسیستم‌های کوهستانی است. به منظور برآورد ارزش تفرجی منطقۀ کوهستانی توچال واقع در شمال تهران با استفاده از روش ارزش‌گذاری مشروط و پرسش‌نامۀ انتها- باز، 227 پرسش‌نامه در سایت مورد نظر تکمیل شد. همچنین، به منظور تشخیص عوامل مؤثر در تصمیم به تمایل برای پرداخت ورودیه و میزان تمایل به پرداخت، از الگوی توبیت و روش دومرحلهای هکمن استفاده شد. با حذف پاسخ‌های ناقص، صفر اعتراض‌آمیز و صفر حقیقی، 107 نفر از 227 پاسخگو (47 درصد) حاضر به پرداخت مبلغی برای بازدید و استفاده از منطقۀ کوهستانی توچال بوده‌اند. مقایسۀ نتایج برآورد الگوی پروبیت و رگرسیون خطی نشان می‌دهد، متغیرهای جنسیت، نوع منزل مسکونی و تغییر جغرافیایی محیط کار، در تصمیم پاسخگویان برای پرداخت ورودیه به منظور استفادۀ تفریحی از منطقۀ کوهستانی توچال اثر معنی‌دار دارد. همچنین، سطح درآمد، تعداد افراد خانوار و میزان آلودگی در محیط کار نیز در مرحلۀ اول (مرحلۀ تصمیم برای تمایل به پرداخت) و دوم (مرحلۀ عمل بعد از مرحلۀ تصمیم)، در میزان تمایل به پرداخت پاسخگویان اثر معنی‌دار دارد. میانگین تمایل به پرداخت سالانۀ هر بازدیدکننده برابر با 9444 ریال و ارزش تفرجی هر هکتار از منطقه در سال 1390 برابر با 137888240ریال برآورد شد. با توجه به میزان بالای ارزش تفرجی هر هکتار از منطقۀ توچال، برنامه‌ریزی برای ارتقای سطح امکانات بهداشتی، رفاهی و افزایش امنیت افراد در منطقه توچال، ضروری است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ارزش‌گذاری مشروط؛ ارزش تفرجی؛ الگوی توبیت؛ توچال؛ روش دومرحلهای هکمن | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Estimation on Recreational Value of Tuchal Mountainous Region Using Hickman Two Stages Econometric Model | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Houman Liaghati1؛ Afsaneh Naeemifar2؛ Naghmeh Mobarghei Dinan3 | ||
| 1Asosiate professor, Department of Environmental Economics, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Assisstant professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Assisstant professor, Department of Environmental Economics, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction Mountainous region of Tuchal, with a height about 3962 meters above sea level, is located in north of Tehran, capital of Iran. With regards to population growth, and increasing urbanization, and air pollution issues, it is known as one of the most important recreational area for health recovery and relaxation among people living in Tehran. As these spaces are known as public goods with free access, most of the visitors are not informed from its real utility and values. This usually decline efficient and optimum use of these spaces and causes their degradation. The economic values of natural recreational regions not only increase their conservation by users, but also create more accurate information for decision makers to improve properly other natural regions. It can also be effective in forecasting requirements, omitting deficiencies and developing tourism industry in the recreational areas. Materials and methods In this study, recreational value of Tuchal region is estimated with contingent valuation method from 227 respondents. The method is used in open-ended way. Two stages method of Hickman has been chosen to recognize factors affecting on decision in willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of willingness to pay in the second stage. Required data was gathered via questionnaires and personal interview with 227 visitors. After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 47% of respondents were willing to pay entrance fee for recreational use of the region. Table 1 show estimation results of Tobit Model for willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal region. Table 1. Estimation results of Tobit Model for willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal Total Elasticity Realized Elasticity Expective Elasticity Statistic t Normalized coefficient Variable Age (year) -0.09 -1.87 -0.51 -0.4 -0.91 Education (year) 0.0021 0.51 0.083 0.06 0.143 0.00008 5.21 1.1 1.76 86.2 Respondent Income (IRR1000) -0.62 -3.11 -0.474 -0.696 -1.17 Number of Family Members 0.17 0.54 0.37 0.4 0.77 Home Type (Apartment=1 villa=0) 0.079 1.97 0.42 0.17 0.59 Air pollution in workplace (percentage) -0.000009 -0.28 -0.097 -0.131 -0.228 Geographical change of work place(hours) Fixed Coefficient -0.013 -0.55 - - R2= 0.71 Hence, in this study, recreational value of Tuchal is estimated with contingent valuation method. The elicit method used is open-ended. Two stages method of Hickman has been used to recognize factors affecting on decisions for willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of willingness to pay in the second stage. Table 2 shows the estimation results of Probit Model on willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal. Table 2. The first stage: Estimation results of Probit Model for willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal Final Effect Total weighted Elasticity Elasticity in average Variable coefficient Statistic t Sex 0.258 1.91 0.33 0.3 0.061 Age (year) -1.01 -0.75 -0.24 -0.21 -0.003 Education (year) 0.316 0.29 0.015 0.014 0.000116 Number of Family Members -0.77 -2.53 -0.75 -0.74 -0.17 Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.00051 3.2 1.62 1.41 0.00021 0.63 2.03 0.19 0.16 0.24 Home Type (Apartment=1 villa=0) -0.0901 -1.85 -0.41 -0.39 -0.0005 Geographical change of work place(hours) -0.44 3.06 0.53 0.52 0.0029 Air pollution in workplace (percentage) Fixed Coefficient 2.73 1.62 0.12 0.1 Correct prediction percentage= 80.3% McFadden R2 = 0.57 Log-Liklihhod Function=-81.003 Log-Liklihhood (0)= 147.15 After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 82% of respondents was willing to pay entrance fee for recreational use of the region. The average of WTP was calculated 0.6 US$ per visitor and recreational value of Tuchal area was estimated about 6000 US$ per hectare, in summer 2012.Other results also showed that income and facilities of the region (meaningful in 1% level) are the most effective variable in dealing with WTP. Table 3 shows the estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational use of Tuchal Region. Table 3. Second stage: Estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational use of Tuchal Variable coefficient Statistic t Age (year) -29.7 -0.15 Education (year) 33.1 1.14 Number of Family Members -1004.2 -2.76 Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.886 4.01 Home Type (Apartment=1 villa=0) 768.3 0.83 Geographical change of work place(hours) -2.44 -0.145 Use of flowers and plants at home (percentage) 34.6 1.94 Air pollution in workplace (percentage) 127 2.09 Number of visits (yearly) -1190.2 -1.86 Inverse Mill Ratio 57.24 3.68 Fixed Coefficient 9250.2 5.28 R2= 0.57 D-W=2.05 Results and discussion Household size, impressiveness of pollution in work or living places of visitors, kind of houses (apartment or villa) are the next effective variables (meaningful in 5%) on deal for WTP, in order. Although, education level is important factor and it is significant in 20% level. The age and geographic variety of work place affect just decision to WTP in the first stage and not deal of it. With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in the region, it is required to pay more attention to conservation of natural recreational regions. This is more important in big cities such as Tehran where habitants suffer from many kinds of pollution and deficiency of green spaces. The average WTP was 9444 Rls per visitor and recreational value of Tuchal area was estimated about 137888240 Rls per hectare, in summer 2012. Conclusion With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in this region, it is required to pay more attention to conservation of other natural recreational sites with more responsibility. This is more important in big cities such as Tehran with high level of air pollutions and deficiency of green spaces per capita. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| contingent valuation method, Hickman two stages model, mountainous region of Tuchal, Recreational value, Tobit Model, Willingness to Pay | ||
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