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ارزیابی سناریوهای مدیریت آب و تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پایداری زیست‌محیطی و کشاورزی (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضه‌های آبریز زرینه‌رود و سیمینه‌رود) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 5، شماره 4، دی 1397، صفحه 1203-1217 اصل مقاله (1.08 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2018.259906.920 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| جمال احمدآلی* 1؛ غلامعباس بارانی2؛ کورش قادری3؛ بهزاد حصاری4 | ||
| 1استادیار، بخش تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان آذربایجان غربی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ارومیه آموزش | ||
| 2استاد، بخش مهندسی عمران، دانشکدۀ فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان | ||
| 3دانشیار، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان | ||
| 4استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه | ||
| چکیده | ||
| دریاچۀ ارومیه واقع در شمال غربی ایران طی دو دهۀ گذشته هر سال حدود 40 سانتیمتر افت سطح آب داشته و در حال خشک‌شدن است که این مسئله به عواقب اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی منجر شده است. در تحقیق حاضر شاخصهای پایداری زیست‌محیطی و پایداری کشاورزی با استفاده از معیارهای عملکرد تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم و راهبردهای مدیریت آب برای حوضه‌های آبریز زرینه‌رود و سیمینه‌رود، به عنوان بزرگترین زیرحوضۀ دریاچۀ ارومیه ارزیابی شد. مدلسازی رفتار هیدرولوژیک این حوضهها با استفاده از نرمافزار 21WEAP انجام گرفت. برای شبیهسازی تغییرات اقلیمی از مدل ریزمقیاس‌‌نمایی LARS-WG استفاده شد. مدل برای سه سناریوی انتشار آینده (2A، B1A و 1B)، طی دورۀ 2015-2040، و پنج سناریوی مدیریت آب: 1. ادامۀ وضع موجود (0S)، 2. تغییر الگوی کشت (1S)، 3. بهبود راندمان انتقال و توزیع (2S)، 4. ترکیب بهبود راندمان انتقال و توزیع با بهبود راندمان کاربرد با استفاده از تکنولوژیهای نوین (3S)، و 5. ترکیب تغییر الگوی کشت با بهبود راندمان کل آبیاری (4S) تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد بیشترین مقادیر شاخصهای پایداری زیست‌محیطی و پایداری کشاورزی مربوط به سناریوی ترکیب تغییر الگوی کشت با بهبود راندمان کل آبیاری تحت سناریوی انتشار 1B (4S1B) است. تحت این سناریو، مقدار جریان متوسط سالیانۀ ورودی به دریاچۀ ارومیه از حوضه‌های آبریز زرینه‌رود و سیمینه‌رود به‌ترتیب برابر 1292 و 351 میلیون مترمکعب در سال شده و در نتیجه نیاز زیست‌محیطی دریاچه از این حوضهها تأمین خواهد شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| دریاچۀ ارومیه؛ شبکۀ آبیاری زرینه‌رود؛ مدل LARS-WG؛ مدل 21WEAP | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessment of Water Management Scenarios and the Impact of Climate Change on Environmental and Agricultural Sustainability (Case Study: Zarrinehrud and Siminehrud River Basins) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Jamal Ahmadaali1؛ Gholam-Abbas Barani2؛ Kourosh Qaderi3؛ Behzad Hessari4 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Agricultural Engineering Research Department, West Azarbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Urmia, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Urmia Lake, as a hyper saline and very shallow lake, located in the northwest of Iran, has had reduced water level of about 40 centimeters each year over the past two decades and is drying, which this problem has led to social and environmental consequences. In this research, the indexes of environmental and agricultural sustainability were evaluated using performance criteria influenced by climate change and water management strategies for the Zerrinehrud and Siminehrud river basins as the largest sub-basin of Urmia Lake Basin. Modeling of hydrologic behavior of these basins was performed by WEAP21 model. The LARS-WG downscaling model was used to simulate climate change.Then the model was analyzed for three future emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), for the period 2015-2040, and five water management scenarios: (1) keeping the existing situation (S0), (2) crop pattern change (S1), (3) improving the conveyance and distribution efficiency (S2), (4) combining the improvement of conveyance and distribution efficiency with improving the application efficiency using modern technology (S3), and (5) the combination of crop pattern change with the improvement of total irrigation efficiency (S4). The results showed that the highest values of indices of environmental sustainability and agricultural sustainability were related to the scenario of combining the crop pattern change with improving the total irrigation efficiency under the B1 emission scenario (B1S4). In this scenario, the average annual flow of water entering the Urmia Lake from Zarrinehrud and Siminehrud river basins will be equal to 1292 and 351 MCM per year, and as a result, the environmental flow requirements of the lake will be supplied from these basins. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Urmia Lake, Zarrinehrud Irrigation Network, LARS-WG Model, WEAP21 Model | ||
| مراجع | ||
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