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طراحی مدلی پویا برای تحلیل سرمایۀ اجتماعی با رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها | ||
| مجله علمی "مدیریت سرمایه اجتماعی" | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 6، شماره 4، دی 1398، صفحه 445-473 اصل مقاله (817.63 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jscm.2019.282916.1866 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| امین فغفوری آذر1؛ فاطمه باکویی* 2؛ محمدحسین مهدوی عادلی3؛ رضا رادفر4؛ محمدعلی افشار کاظمی5 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکدة مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، پژوهشکدة علوم شناختی و مغز، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، دانشکدة علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران | ||
| 4استاد، دانشکدة مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 5دانشیار، دانشکدة مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف این تحقیق شناخت عمیق و تحلیل رفتار پیچیده، پویا، و غیرخطی عوامل مؤثر در فرایند تولید و انباشت «سرمایۀ اجتماعی» در گذر زمان و پاسخ به این پرسشهاست که «اعتماد»، «هنجارپذیری»، و «شبکهپذیری» چگونه شکل میگیرند؟ چگونه بر یک‌دیگر اثر می‌گذارند؟ طی چه فرایندی تولید و انباشته می‌شوند؟ چگونه بر سیستمهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی تأثیر می‌گذارند؟ و با چه مکانیسمی سودآور می‌شوند و مزایا تولید میکنند؟ کمّیسازی و تعیین معادلات متغیرها، همچنین، تعیین مرز سیستم در این پژوهش با جمعبندی دیدگاههای نظریهپردازان، دریافت نظر خبرگان به کمک مصاحبههای نیمهساختاریافته و تلفیق آن با روش دلفی فازی، فرایند تحلیل شبکهای، و متدولوژی پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها صورت گرفت. فرایند تولید سرمایۀ اجتماعی با سه زیرسیستم اصلی افراز و سپس دیاگرامهای علّی‌ـ حلقوی و انباشت‌ـ جریان ترسیم شدند. پس از ساختاردهی کمّی به متغیرهای کیفی، با استفاده از اعداد فازی مثلثی و دیفازی کردن آن‌ها، استخراج حلقههای فزاینده و تعادلی و تعیین نقاط اهرمی، شبیهسازی مدل عمومی با نرمافزار Vensim انجام گرفت و رفتار سیستم و مدل طراحیشده در سناریوها و سیاستهای مختلف تحلیل و تفسیر و اعتبارسنجی شد. نتیجه اینکه با آزمونهایی برای ساختار مدل، رفتار سیستم و تحلیل حساسیت سیاستها بر اساس هشت سیاست منتخب، راهکارهای بهینه برای اصلاحات و تغییرات بلندمدت در سیستم مورد مطالعه انتخاب و پیشنهاد شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اعتماد؛ پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها؛ سرمایۀ اجتماعی؛ شبکه پذیری؛ هنجارهای اجتماعی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Designing a Dynamic Model to Analyze Social Capital with System Dynamics Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Amin Faghfouri Azar1؛ Fatemeh Bakouie2؛ Mohammod Hossin Mahdavi Adeli3؛ Reza Radfar4؛ Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi5 | ||
| 1Ph. D. Student, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Institute for Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| 4Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 5Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The main goal of this study is to analyze the complex and dynamic behavior of influential participants in the process of social capital. Considering the complex nature of human relations, this study seeks to describe the mechanisms of trust networks and normalization as sub-systems of social capital and their mutual relations, their effects on economic and social systems, and the way they bring about profitability. By taking account of the theoretical framework developed by nine experts in this field and through Fuzzy Analytical Network Process and combining it with system dynamic methodology, three sub-systems were designed. Using Venism software, a general model was simulated in which the behavior of these mechanisms could be analyzed in different situations. Considering the structure of the model and the behavior of the systems, and analyzing the sensitivity level of proposed policies, one could map optimistic, pessimistic and normal scenarios based on the proposed eightfold policies. Finally, a comparison of the most likely scenario with the current state of affairs and the initial state of the actual system allowed us to select the optimal policy for the implementation of long term changes. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Social capital, Trust, Social norms, Network, System dynamics | ||
| مراجع | ||
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The place of social capital in understanding social and economic outcomes. Isuma: Canadian Journal of Policy Research 2(1): pp. 11-17. | ||
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