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A new Version of Integrated Assessment Model MERGE | ||
| International Journal of Environmental Research | ||
| مقاله 38، دوره 8، شماره 4، دی 2014، صفحه 1231-1240 اصل مقاله (215.12 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijer.2014.815 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| B.V. Digas* 1؛ V.L. Rozenberg1؛ A.A. Kuklin2 | ||
| 1Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of RAS, 16 S.Kovalevskaya st., Ekaterinburg, 620990, Russia | ||
| 2Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of RAS, 29 Moskovskaya st., Ekaterinburg, 620014, Russia | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The optimization Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of greenhouse gases reduction policies named MERGE is an actively usable tool for studying some aspects of the problem of climate change. It is first of all destined for the quantitative estimation of emission trajectories and results of applying abatement measures. In the paper, the emphasis is on the adaptation of the integrated assessment model MERGE to the modern state of the world and regional economy and on the analysis of possibilities of Russia’s participation in some Kyoto-type initiatives on greenhouse gases emission reduction under different assumptions on the dynamics of regional economic-energetic indices. Calculations with the MERGE model demonstrated the attainability of the national emission targets: stabilizing the carbon dioxide emissions at 75 per cent of the 1990 level by 2020 with further reducing to 70 per cent by 2030. Some trends in the structure of energy sector and fossil fuel exports are also analyzed. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Integrated assessment model؛ Optimization؛ Economic Development؛ GHG Emissions | ||
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