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بهزادی, فرهاد, جوادی, سامان, یوسفی, حسین, مریدی, علی. (1401). بررسی و تحلیل اثر خشکسالی بر سفره‌های آب زیرزمینی در ایران (مطالعه موردی دشت شهرکرد). , 12(2), 327-348. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.341590.982
فرهاد بهزادی; سامان جوادی; حسین یوسفی; علی مریدی. "بررسی و تحلیل اثر خشکسالی بر سفره‌های آب زیرزمینی در ایران (مطالعه موردی دشت شهرکرد)". , 12, 2, 1401, 327-348. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.341590.982
بهزادی, فرهاد, جوادی, سامان, یوسفی, حسین, مریدی, علی. (1401). 'بررسی و تحلیل اثر خشکسالی بر سفره‌های آب زیرزمینی در ایران (مطالعه موردی دشت شهرکرد)', , 12(2), pp. 327-348. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.341590.982
بهزادی, فرهاد, جوادی, سامان, یوسفی, حسین, مریدی, علی. بررسی و تحلیل اثر خشکسالی بر سفره‌های آب زیرزمینی در ایران (مطالعه موردی دشت شهرکرد). , 1401; 12(2): 327-348. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.341590.982

بررسی و تحلیل اثر خشکسالی بر سفره‌های آب زیرزمینی در ایران (مطالعه موردی دشت شهرکرد)

مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 12، شماره 2، تیر 1401، صفحه 327-348    اصل مقاله (5.26 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jwim.2022.341590.982
نویسندگان
فرهاد بهزادی1؛ سامان جوادی* 2؛ حسین یوسفی3؛ علی مریدی4
1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدگان ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدگان ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3دانشجوی دکتری منابع آب، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.
4استادیار، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
آب زیرزمینی همواره یکی از باارزش‌ترین منابع آبی در هر منطقه به‌شمار می‌رود و در بسیاری از مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک جهان نظیر کشور ایران، اصلی‌ترین منبع جهت تأمین نیازهای شرب و کشاورزی محسوب می‌شود. در سالیان اخیر، با افزایش جمعیت و در نتیجه افزایش برداشت از آبخوان‌ها و تغییرات اقلیمی، تراز آب زیرزمینی در بسیاری از آبخوان‌های ایران همواره نزولی بوده و بسیاری از آبخوان‌های کشور در شرایط وخیم قرار دارند و این شرایط در بسیاری از آبخوان‌های کشور ادامه‌دار بوده یا شرایط در حال بدترشدن است. در همین راستا همواره پایش منظم وضعیت آبخوان‌ها از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است و با اتخاذ تصمیم‌های مدیریتی مناسب می‌توان از آسیب‌دیدن هرچه بیش‌تر آبخوان‌ها جلوگیری کرد و همواره خسارت را کاهش داد. هدف این پژوهش تعیین خشک‌سالی‌های دوره آتی و تعیین تأثیر آن بر آبخوان دشت شهرکرد می‌باشد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از برونداد مدل‌های CMIP6 در ابتدا متغیرهای اقلیمی نظیر بارندگی و دما برای دوره آتی شبیه‌سازی شده و وضعیت بارندگی در منطقه تا سال 2100 تعیین شده است. در ادامه با استفاده از مدل ANFIS، عمق آب زیرزمینی در پنج پیزومتر منتخب در سطح دشت تا سال 2050 پیش‌بینی شده است. با توجه به نتایج این پژوهش، وضعیت آبخوان دشت شهرکرد تا سال 2050 تعیین شده و مشخص شده است در برخی از نقاط دشت شهرکرد، عمق آب زیرزمینی تا 26 متر افزایش پیدا خواهد کرد. از این‌رو، با توجه به تغییرات محتمل در آینده‌ای نه چندان دور و به‌منظور جلوگیری از وخیم‌ترشدن شرایط و افزایش خسارت‌ها، باید تصمیم‌های مدیریتی مناسبی در این منطقه اتخاذ شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
بارندگی؛ دما؛ ANFIS؛ GRI؛ SPI
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigation and analysis the effect of drought on groundwater aquifers in Iran (Case study: Shahrekord plain)
نویسندگان [English]
Farhad Behzadi1؛ saman Javadi2؛ Hossein Yousefi3؛ Ali Moridi4
1M.Sc. Student of Water Resources, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3Ph.D. Student of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
4Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Groundwater is the most valuable water resources in any region and in many arid and semi-arid regions of the world, such as Iran, is the main source for drinking and agricultural needs. In recent years, with the increase in population and as a result of increasing withdrawals from aquifers and climate change, many of aquifers are in poor condition, and these conditions continue or are deteriorating. In this regard, regular monitoring of aquifers is always very important and by making appropriate management decisions, it is possible to prevent more damage to aquifers and reduce the damage. The purpose of this study is to determine the droughts of the future and to determine its impact on the aquifer of Shahrekord plain. In this study, using the output of CMIP6 models, climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature for the next period are simulated and the rainfall situation in the region until 2100 has been determined. Then, using the ANFIS model, groundwater depth in five selected piezometers in the plain is predicted by 2050. According to the results of this study, the aquifer condiotion of Shahrekord plain has been determined by 2050 and it has been determined that in some parts of Shahrekord plain, the groundwater depth will increase to 26 meters. Due to possible changes in the future in order to prevent the situation from deteriorating and increasing the damage, appropriate management decisions must be made in this regard.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
ANFIS, GRI, Precipitation, SPI, Temperature
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آمار
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