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تعیین تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر خشک سالی آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از برونداد مدل‌های CMIP6 (مطالعۀ موردی: دشت شهرکرد) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 2، تیر 1401، صفحه 419-436 اصل مقاله (2.45 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2022.342077.1633 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرهاد بهزادی1؛ سامان جوادی* 2؛ حسین یوسفی3؛ علی مریدی4؛ سید مهدی هاشمی شاهدانی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدههای ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدههای ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری منابع آب، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران | ||
| 4استادیار، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| آب زیرزمینی همواره از باارزشترین منابع آبی در هر منطقه به شمار میرود و در بسیاری از مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک جهان نظیر کشور ایران، اصلیترین منبع برای تأمین نیازهای شرب و کشاورزی محسوب میشود. در سالیان اخیر، با افزایش جمعیت، افزایش برداشت از آبخوانها و تغییرات اقلیمی، بسیاری از آبخوانهای کشور در شرایط وخیم قرار دارند و این شرایط در بسیاری از آبخوانهای کشور ادامهدار بوده یا شرایط در حال بدتر شدن است. در این پژوهش به منظور تعیین تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر خشکسالی آب زیرزمینی آبخوان دشت شهرکرد، از برونداد مدل‌های CMIP6 و شاخصهای خشکسالی SPI و GRI استفاده شده است. شبیهسازیهای مدل GFDL-ESM4 نشان میدهد متوسط بارندگی تا سال 2050 در دشت شهرکرد، تحت سناریوی SSP1-2.6 85/4 میلی‌متر افزایش و تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5 34/21 میلی‌متر کاهش مییابد. در ادامه، به منظور تعیین تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر آبخوان دشت شهرکرد از رابطۀ رگرسیونی میان دو شاخص SPI و GRI در شش پیزومتر منتخب استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد خشکسالیهایی با شدت و مدت بیشتر در منطقه به وقوع خواهد پیوست و بیش از 60 درصد از دورۀ آیندۀ آبخوان دشت شهرکرد در شرایط خشکسالی قرار خواهد داشت و شدیدترین خشکسالی تحت سناریوی SSP1-2.6 52 ماه دوام داشته و شدت آن 32/59 خواهد بود و تحت سناریو SSP5-8.5 70 ماه دوام داشته و شدت آن 59/86 خواهد بود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آب زیرزمینی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ خشکسالی؛ SPI؛ GRI | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Drought Using CMIP6 Models (Case Study: Shahrekord Plain) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Farhad Behzadi1؛ Saman Javadi2؛ Hossein Yousefi3؛ Ali Moridi4؛ Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany2 | ||
| 1M.Sc. Student of Water Resources, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Ph.D. Student of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Groundwater is the most valuable water resources in any region and in many arid and semi-arid regions of the world, such as Iran, is the main source for drinking and agricultural needs. In recent years, with the increase in population and as a result of increasing withdrawals from aquifers and climate change, many of aquifers are in poor condition, and these conditions continue or are deteriorating. In this study, in order to determine the effect of climate change on groundwater drought on the aquifer of Shahrekord plain, the output of CMIP6 models and SPI and GRI drought indices have been used. Simulations of GFDL-ESM4 model show that the average rainfall by 2050 in Shahrekord plain, under scenario SSP1-2.6 will increase by 4.85 mm and under scenario SSP5-8.5 will decrease by 21.34 mm. In order to determine the effect of climate change on the aquifer of Shahrekord plain, a regression relationship between the two indices of SPI and GRI in six selected piezometers has been used. The results show that droughts with higher intensity and duration will occur in the region and more than 60 percent of the future period of Shahrekord plain aquifer will be in drought conditions and the most severe drought under SSP1-2.6 scenario will last 52 months and its severity will be 59.32 and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario the most severe drought will last 70 months and its severity will be 86.59. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate change, Drought, GRI, Ground water, SPI | ||
| مراجع | ||
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