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برآورد تغییرات مقدار آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا و تبخیر‌ـ تعرق مرجع ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| دوره 10، شماره 4، دی 1402، صفحه 555-573 اصل مقاله (1.81 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2024.367096.1768 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| هادی رمضانی اعتدالی* 1؛ زهرا پرتوی2؛ سکینه کوهی3 | ||
| 1دانشیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف از پژوهش حاضر، بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر اساس گزارش ششم (CMIP) تحت دو سناریوی SSP3_7.0 و SSP5_8.5 بر پیشبینی دما، سرعت باد، تبخیر‌ـ تعرق (ET) و مقدار آب قابل استحصال (Q) توسط دو مدل CNRM و ESM در 16 ایستگاه هواشناسی طی دورۀ آتی 2025ـ 2044 و 2045ـ 2064 است. نتایج بررسی آماری بیانگر معنادار بودن تأثیر تغییر اقلیم تحت دو سناریو بر دما، ET و Q بود. مدل CNRM نسبت به ESM در برآورد دما عملکرد بهتری داشت (98/0- 96/0=CC). از بررسی نتایج مدل CNRM حداکثر و حداقل RMSE دما در ایستگاه خرمدره و زنجان به‌ترتیب برابر با 30/8 و 5/0- درجۀ سانتیگراد بود؛ همچنین مقدار RMSE سرعت باد بین 82/0ـ 20/5 متر بر ثانیه نوسان داشت. بررسی مدل ESM بیانگر نوسان RMSE بین 55/2ـ 45/8 درجۀ سانتیگراد در پارامتر دما و 62/0ـ 68/4 متر بر ثانیه در سرعت باد بود. حداکثر و حداقل مقدار Q و ET در بررسی فصلی به‌ترتیب در فصل تابستان و زمستان رخ داد. هر دو مدل در پیشبینی سرعت باد از عملکرد ضعیفی برخوردار بودند. حداکثر ET تحت سناریوی SSP5_8.5 توسط مدل CNRM (دورۀ اول) در ایستگاه خرمدره برابر با 29/104 میلیمتر در ماه و حداقل مقدار توسط مدل ESM (دورۀ اول) تحت سناریوی SSP3_7.0 در ایستگاه فیروزکوه برابر با 60/25 میلیمتر در ماه برآورد شد. حداکثر Q تحت سناریوی SSP3_7.0 توسط مدل ESM (دورۀ اول) در ایستگاه ملایر برابر با 70/20 لیتر در روز در مترمربع و حداقل مقدار توسط مدل CNRM (دورۀ دوم) تحت سناریوی SSP3_7.0 در ایستگاه آستارا برابر با 3/0 لیتر در روز در مترمربع برآورد شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تبخیر_تعرق؛ دما؛ CNRM؛ ESM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Estimating changes in the amount of water harvesting from air humidity and evapotranspiration due to climate change (CMIP6) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hadi Ramezani Etedali1؛ Zahra Partovi2؛ Sakine Koohi3 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 2PhD Student of irrigation and drainage, Imam Khomeini International University Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 3PhD Student of water resources management, Imam Khomeini International University Qazvin, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| This research aims to investigate the impact of climate change based on the sixth report (CMIP) under two scenarios SSP3_7.0 and SSP5_8.5 on forecasting temperature, wind speed, evaporation-transpiration (ET), and the amount of extractable water (Q) by two CNRM models and ESM was at 16 meteorological stations during the future period of 2025-2044 and 2045-2064. The statistical analysis results showed that the impact of climate change under two scenarios on temperature, ET and Q was significant. CNRM model performed better than ESM in temperature estimation (CC=0.96-0.98). From examining the results of the CNRM model, the maximum and minimum RMSE of temperature in Khormadreh and Zanjan stations were 8.30 and -0.5 , respectively; Also, the RMSE value of wind speed fluctuated between 0.82-0.5 m.s-1. The examination of ESM model showed the fluctuation of RMSE between 2.55-8.45 in temperature parameter and 0.62-0.68 meters per second in wind speed. The maximum and minimum values of Q and ET in the seasonal survey occurred in summer and winter, respectively. Both models had poor performance in predicting wind speed. The maximum ET under the SSP5_8.5 scenario by the CNRM model (first period) at Khorramdare station is equal to 104.29 mm.month-1 and the minimum value by the ESM model (first period) under the SSP3_7.0 scenario at Firuzkoh station is equal to 25.60 mm.month-1 was estimated. The maximum Q under the SSP3_7.0 scenario by the ESM model (first period) at Malair station is equal to 20.70 Lit.day.m-2 and the minimum value by the CNRM model (second period) under the SSP3_7.0 scenario at the Astara station is equal to 0.3 Lit.day.m-2 were estimated. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Evapotranspiration, Temperature, CNRM, ESM | ||
| مراجع | ||
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