پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,232 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,790 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,262,235 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 90,004,250 |
برآورد تغییرات مقدار آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا و تبخیر‌ـ تعرق مرجع ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| دوره 10، شماره 4، دی 1402، صفحه 555-573 اصل مقاله (1.81 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2024.367096.1768 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| هادی رمضانی اعتدالی* 1؛ زهرا پرتوی2؛ سکینه کوهی3 | ||
| 1دانشیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف از پژوهش حاضر، بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر اساس گزارش ششم (CMIP) تحت دو سناریوی SSP3_7.0 و SSP5_8.5 بر پیشبینی دما، سرعت باد، تبخیر‌ـ تعرق (ET) و مقدار آب قابل استحصال (Q) توسط دو مدل CNRM و ESM در 16 ایستگاه هواشناسی طی دورۀ آتی 2025ـ 2044 و 2045ـ 2064 است. نتایج بررسی آماری بیانگر معنادار بودن تأثیر تغییر اقلیم تحت دو سناریو بر دما، ET و Q بود. مدل CNRM نسبت به ESM در برآورد دما عملکرد بهتری داشت (98/0- 96/0=CC). از بررسی نتایج مدل CNRM حداکثر و حداقل RMSE دما در ایستگاه خرمدره و زنجان به‌ترتیب برابر با 30/8 و 5/0- درجۀ سانتیگراد بود؛ همچنین مقدار RMSE سرعت باد بین 82/0ـ 20/5 متر بر ثانیه نوسان داشت. بررسی مدل ESM بیانگر نوسان RMSE بین 55/2ـ 45/8 درجۀ سانتیگراد در پارامتر دما و 62/0ـ 68/4 متر بر ثانیه در سرعت باد بود. حداکثر و حداقل مقدار Q و ET در بررسی فصلی به‌ترتیب در فصل تابستان و زمستان رخ داد. هر دو مدل در پیشبینی سرعت باد از عملکرد ضعیفی برخوردار بودند. حداکثر ET تحت سناریوی SSP5_8.5 توسط مدل CNRM (دورۀ اول) در ایستگاه خرمدره برابر با 29/104 میلیمتر در ماه و حداقل مقدار توسط مدل ESM (دورۀ اول) تحت سناریوی SSP3_7.0 در ایستگاه فیروزکوه برابر با 60/25 میلیمتر در ماه برآورد شد. حداکثر Q تحت سناریوی SSP3_7.0 توسط مدل ESM (دورۀ اول) در ایستگاه ملایر برابر با 70/20 لیتر در روز در مترمربع و حداقل مقدار توسط مدل CNRM (دورۀ دوم) تحت سناریوی SSP3_7.0 در ایستگاه آستارا برابر با 3/0 لیتر در روز در مترمربع برآورد شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تبخیر_تعرق؛ دما؛ CNRM؛ ESM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Estimating changes in the amount of water harvesting from air humidity and evapotranspiration due to climate change (CMIP6) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hadi Ramezani Etedali1؛ Zahra Partovi2؛ Sakine Koohi3 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 2PhD Student of irrigation and drainage, Imam Khomeini International University Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 3PhD Student of water resources management, Imam Khomeini International University Qazvin, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| This research aims to investigate the impact of climate change based on the sixth report (CMIP) under two scenarios SSP3_7.0 and SSP5_8.5 on forecasting temperature, wind speed, evaporation-transpiration (ET), and the amount of extractable water (Q) by two CNRM models and ESM was at 16 meteorological stations during the future period of 2025-2044 and 2045-2064. The statistical analysis results showed that the impact of climate change under two scenarios on temperature, ET and Q was significant. CNRM model performed better than ESM in temperature estimation (CC=0.96-0.98). From examining the results of the CNRM model, the maximum and minimum RMSE of temperature in Khormadreh and Zanjan stations were 8.30 and -0.5 , respectively; Also, the RMSE value of wind speed fluctuated between 0.82-0.5 m.s-1. The examination of ESM model showed the fluctuation of RMSE between 2.55-8.45 in temperature parameter and 0.62-0.68 meters per second in wind speed. The maximum and minimum values of Q and ET in the seasonal survey occurred in summer and winter, respectively. Both models had poor performance in predicting wind speed. The maximum ET under the SSP5_8.5 scenario by the CNRM model (first period) at Khorramdare station is equal to 104.29 mm.month-1 and the minimum value by the ESM model (first period) under the SSP3_7.0 scenario at Firuzkoh station is equal to 25.60 mm.month-1 was estimated. The maximum Q under the SSP3_7.0 scenario by the ESM model (first period) at Malair station is equal to 20.70 Lit.day.m-2 and the minimum value by the CNRM model (second period) under the SSP3_7.0 scenario at the Astara station is equal to 0.3 Lit.day.m-2 were estimated. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Evapotranspiration, Temperature, CNRM, ESM | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1]. Lee H, Calvin K, Dasgupta D, Krinmer G, Mukherji A, Thorne P, Trisos C, Romero J, Aldunce P, Barret K, Blanco G. Synthesis report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Longer report. IPCC.2023 [2]. Zhang X, Hua L, Jiang D. Assessment of CMIP6 model performance for temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang, China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. 2022 Mar 1;15(2):100128. [3]. Riahi K, Van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, Edmonds J, O’neill BC, Fujimori S, Bauer N, Calvin K, Dellink R, Fricko O, Lutz W. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global environmental change. 2017 Jan 1;42:153-68. [4]. Abdolalizadeh F , Khorshiddoust A, Jahanbakhsh S. Assessment of the performance of CMIP6 model for analysis of temperature and precipitation in Urmia Lake basin. Climate Change Research.2022; 3(11), 17-30. [Persian]. [5]. Arfa A, Khashei A, Hamidian pour M. The Effect Of Climate Change On Evapotranspiration In Warm And Humid Conditions (Case Study: South And Southeast Of Iran. 2021. [Persian]. [6]. Hadi F, Khashei Siuki A, Shahidi A, Farzaneh M. Examination the Effect of Climate Change on Potential Evapotranspiration in Different Climates. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage.2016; 230–240. [Persian]. [7]. Bisht DS, Sridhar V, Mishra A, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS. Drought characterization over India under projected climate scenario. International Journal of Climatology. 2019 Mar 30;39(4):1889-911. [8]. Khan JU, Islam AS, Das MK, Mohammed K, Bala SK, Islam GT. Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Climatic Change. 2020 Sep;162:667-85. [9]. Hosseinabadi S, Yaghoobzadeh M, Amirabadizadeh M, & Foroozanmehr M. Meteorological Drought Assessment in Future Periods by Using of the Data of the Fifth Report of Climate Change (Case Study: Zabol and Shiraz Cities). Journal of Arid Regions Geographics Studie.2020; 10(40), 78–87. [Persian]. [10]. Haile GG, Tang Q, Hosseini‐Moghari SM, Liu X, Gebremicael TG, Leng G, Kebede A, Xu X, Yun X. Projected impacts of climate change on drought patterns over East Africa. Earth's Future. 2020 Jul;8(7):e2020EF001502. [11]. Gaitán E, Monjo R, Pórtoles J, & Pino-Otín M. Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain). Science of the Total Environment. 2020. 740. [12]. Das S, Das J, Umamahesh NV. Identification of future meteorological drought hotspots over Indian region: a study based on NEX‐GDDP data. International Journal of Climatology. 2021 Oct;41(12):5644-62. [13]. Swain S, Hayhoe K. CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America. Climate Dynamics. 2015 May;44:2737-50. [14]. Prada S, da Silva M. Fog precipitation on the Island of Madeira (Portugal). Environmental Geology. 2001 Dec;41(3):384-9. [15]. Karimpour Reihan M, Alizadeh M, Kamalian S. Selection of suitable sites for water harvesting from air humidity in Bushehr province using GIS. Geography (Regional Planning). 2017 Feb 19;7(1):43-51. [Persian]. [16]. Mahmoudi P, Khajeh Amiri Khaledi C, Salari, M. Examining the feasibility of water harvesting from air humidity in the Southern province of Sistan and Baluchestan. J. of Water and Soil Conservation. 2014; 23(2). [Persian]. [17]. Yousefi B, Boroomand Nasab S. Desalination Using the Condensation Irrigation System (A Case Study of the Research Farm of Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz). 2013; 127–133. [Persian]. [18]. Roshani A, Hamidi M. Forecasting the effects of climate change scenarios on temperature & precipitation based on CMIP6 models (Case study: Sari station). Water and Irrigation Management. 2022 Jan 21;11(4):781-95. [Persian]. [19]. Kamruzzaman M, Wahid S, Shahid S, Alam E, Mainuddin M, Islam HT, Cho J, Rahman MM, Biswas JC, Thorp KR. Predicted changes in future precipitation and air temperature across Bangladesh using CMIP6 GCMs. Heliyon. 2023 May 1;9(5). [20]. Alizadeh A. Principle of Applied Hydrology. Emam Reza University Press. 2010. [Persian]. [21]. Pearson K. Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution.on a form of spurious correlation which may arise when indices are used in the measurement of organs. Proceedings of the royal society of london. 1897 Dec 31;60(359-367):489-98. [22]. Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB. Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International journal of forecasting. 2006 Oct 1;22(4):679-88. [23]. Stanski R, Wilson J, Burrows R. Survey of Common Verification Methods in Meteorology (2nd ed.). World Meteorological Organization.1989. [24]. Jamieson PD, Porter JR, Wilson DR. A test of the computer simulation model ARCWHEAT1 on wheat crops grown in New Zealand. Field crops research. 1991 Nov 1;27(4):337-50. [25]. Heydari Tasheh Kaboud S, Khoshkhoo Y. Projection and prediction of the annual and seasonal future reference evapotranspiration time scales in the West of Iran under RCP emission scenarios. Journal of Applied researches in Geographical Sciences. 2019 Jul 10;19(53):157-76. [Persian]. [26]. Behmanesh J, Azad Talatappeh N, Montaseri M, Rezayi H, Khalili K. Climate change impact on reference evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and vapor pressure deficit in Urmia. Water and Soil Science. 2015 Jul 23;25(2):79-91. [Persian]. [27]. Jalalkamali N, Rajabi M, Naghizade M. Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Estimation of Reference Evapotranspiration and Comparison with Lysimetric Data (case study, Bardsir plain). Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage. 2020 Jun 21;14(2):605-15. [Persian]. [28]. Nooni IK, Hagan DF, Wang G, Ullah W, Lu J, Li S, Dzakpasu M, Prempeh NA, Lim Kam Sian KT. Future changes in simulated evapotranspiration across continental Africa based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021 Jun 23;18(13):6760. [29]. Ramezani Etedali H, Koohi S, Partovi Z. Evaluation of Ensemble Climate Model development methods based on CMIP5 to investigate the potential of water harvesting from air humidity. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research. 2023 Oct 21. [Persian]. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 93 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 104 |
||