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تحلیل راهبرد مهار آمریکا در قبال ج.ا.ایران با تأکید بر دوره بایدن | ||
| فصلنامه سیاست | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 54، شماره 2، شهریور 1403، صفحه 253-233 اصل مقاله (475.3 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jpq.2024.338979.1007927 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| رئوف رحیمی* | ||
| استادیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه بجنورد، خراسان شمالی، بجنورد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| اجرای راهبرد مهار از سوی حکومت‌های آمریکا در برابر ج.ا.ایران تاکنون، پرسش‌های زیادی را برانگیخته است. این مقاله با روش پژوهش توصیفی- تبیینی تلاش دارد در چارچوب رویکرد بازها و واقع‌گرایان راهبرد مهار آمریکا را در حکومت‌های مختلف آمریکا به‌طور خلاصه بررسی کند و سرانجام به این دو پرسش زیر پاسخ دهد: 1. رویکرد بایدن در برابر ایران چیست؟ 2.آیا با احیای برجام در دوره او نیز عناصر مهار آمریکا تداوم پیدا می‌کند یا خیر؟ در فرضیه پژوهشی استدلال می‌شود که از دید دولت بایدن رویکرد گفت‌وگو و مذاکره بهترین شیوه برخورد با ایران برای احیای برجام است، زیرا افزایش تنش و دشمنی به اتحاد رقبای آمریکا علیه آن به‌ویژه در خاورمیانه منجر خواهد شد. اگرچه هدف دولت بایدن از احیای برجام مهار برنامه هسته‌ای ایران، جلوگیری از برهم خوردن توازن منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی به زیان خود و هم‌پیمانانش است، ولی واشنگتن افزایش همکاری راهبردی نزدیک ملت ایران، چین و روسیه را نیز تهدیدی برای آمریکا به‌شمار می‌آورد. یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که حتی در صورت احیای برجام، هیچ نشانه‌ای وجود ندارد که ایران اقدام به تغییر در رفتار سیاست خارجی منطقه‌ای و توسعه توانایی موشکی‌اش کند؛ بنابراین راهبرد مهار ایران از سوی آمریکا ادامه خواهد داشت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| راهبرد مهار؛ واقع‌گرایان؛ بازها؛ تحریم؛ قدرت و نفوذ | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of the US containment strategy against the Islamic Republic of Iran: with emphasis on the Biden era | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Rauf Rahimi | ||
| Assistant professor, Faculty of Human Sciences, University of Bojnord, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Extended Abstract Introduction The implementation of a containment strategy by the US government against the Islamic Republic of Iran has raised many questions. This paper, using an explanatory research method, aims to briefly examine America's containment strategy under different administrations within the framework of hawks and realist theory. Ultimately, the paper seeks to answer the question: What is Biden's approach towards Iran, and will elements of American containment persist with the revival of the JCPOA during his term? The assumption of this article is that the Biden government views dialogue and negotiation as the best approach to revive the JCPOA. Methodology The research method employed in this study is comparative, and data collection is done through library and documentary research. By exploring the history of US containment strategy against Iran, this research has identified reasons for the continuation of containment efforts during the Biden administration. Findings The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes: The situation of tension in the Middle East: Biden believes that heightened tension and hostility in the Middle East may lead America's rivals to unite against it. Biden's approach towards the JCPOA: The Biden administration aims to revive the JCPOA to constrain Iran's nuclear program and maintain regional and international balance in favor of itself and its allies. Iran's relations with eastern powers: Biden views China's Belt and Road plan and Iran's strategic cooperation with China and Russia as a threat to America. Iran's position on missiles and regional influence: Even if the JCPOA is revived, there is no indication that Iran will concede to America in the regional and missile development fields. Therefore, it is likely that containment efforts against Iran will continue under the Biden administration. Biden's approach in containing Iran: Biden's goal is to establish a multinational effort for containing Iran, which includes reducing Iran's political influence and weakening its economy. Analysis Theories of hawks, realists, and doves, about Iran are very different. It seems that the views of realists can better explain the continuation of the containment strategy in the Biden period. Realists, for example, have said that what Iran is doing is a better indicator of Iran's future behavior than what Iran is saying. Biden also believes that he should react to Iran's behavior in various fields. While hawks view the Iranian government as uncontrollable due to religious obligations, realists see Iran as weighing costs and benefits in decision-making, rather than acting irrationally. But realists believe that this perception is not consistent with the performance of the Iranian government. In addition to taking into account religious values, Iran also considers the facts and has shown restraint when the risks are high and has retreated in the event of a severe threat. Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than an armed attack. And the idea of Iran as an irrational actor is wrong. Iranian decision-makers are generally reluctant to act quickly. Conclusions The results showed that the US containment strategy in the Biden era continues within the framework of the realist stick and carrot policy. In all areas, the United States intends to increase Iran's costs based on the stick and carrot policy. The main pillars of the stick policy are threats and sanctions. But the US strategy of containment against Iran has another part, namely carrots, and based on that, it calls for building trust and resolving problems with Iran through negotiations. The policy of maximum pressure to contain Iran began during the Obama administration, and Trump and Biden are the sole agents of this strategy. Sanctions remain a key tool in America's containment strategy against Iran, with the JCPOA serving as part of a broader effort to contain Iran beyond nuclear concerns. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Containment Strategy, Realists, Hawks, Sanctions, Power, and Influence | ||
| مراجع | ||
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References
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